房价变化、房屋资产与中国居民消费——基于总体和调研数据的证据

发布时间：2018-03-25 23:16

本文选题：房价变化　切入点：财富效应　出处：《经济学(季刊)》2017年02期

【摘要】：本文旨在研究房屋资产与居民消费的长期关系。基于国家统计局城镇住户调查的总体和微观调研数据的实证研究表明,房屋价值水平能显著地正向影响消费,但量级非常小。而房价变化,无论是预期到的还是未预期到的,均不对消费产生显著影响,收入才是影响消费的核心因素。同时,中国居民的"房产投资"偏好和"刚需"在一定程度上制约了消费水平。本文政策含义在于,房价上涨并不能刺激中国消费,提高居民收入、打破居民基于"政府依靠房地产拉动经济"政策预期下的房产投资冲动、深化房地产金融、拓宽居民投资渠道对于促进居民消费有重要意义。
[Abstract]:The purpose of this paper is to study the long-term relationship between housing assets and household consumption. Based on the overall and micro data of urban household survey of the National Bureau of Statistics, the empirical study shows that the level of housing value can significantly positively affect consumption. But the order of magnitude is very small. And changes in house prices, whether expected or not, do not have a significant impact on consumption. Income is the core factor that affects consumption. Chinese residents' preference for "real estate investment" and "rigid demand" restrict consumption to a certain extent. The policy implication of this paper is that rising house prices can not stimulate Chinese consumption and raise residents' income. It is very important for residents to break the impulse of real estate investment based on the policy of "government relying on real estate to pull the economy", deepen the real estate finance and broaden the channel of residents' investment.
【作者单位】：西南财经大学金融安全协同创新中心、中国金融研究中心;西南财经大学中国西部经济研究中心;北京师范大学经济与工商管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(71303190、71603028) 西南财经大学金融安全协同创新中心专项课题的资助
【分类号】：F299.23;F126.1

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