房地产业对宏观经济影响机制研究

发布时间：2018-03-25 23:50

本文选题：消费效应　切入点：投资效应　出处：《中国青年政治学院》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：房地产业与宏观经济系统相互作用,关系错综复杂,这就使得调控房地产市场变为一项十分复杂的系统工程。所以,如何厘清房地产业与宏观经济之间的关系,促进房地产市场与国民经济协调发展,是一项意义重大的研究课题。本文采用多种研究方法,包括定量分析与定性分析相结合、数据与经验证据相结合、逻辑推理与实证研究相结合等,对房地产业与宏观经济系统之间的关系问题进行了研究。本文的主要研究内容可总结为以下几点:首先对房地产业与宏观经济互动的机理,特别是房地产市场波动对经济的影响效应进行了梳理;然后重点分析了房价波动对消费和投资影响效应的传导机制;其次通过采用国际对比的方式综合分析房地产业的产业关联效应;最后通过对北京地区房地产市场与宏观经济的实际运行进行实证分析得出主要结论。通过一系列分析本文得出的结论主要有:目前我国房地产市场还处于初级发展阶段,存在部分区域发展不平衡的情况,局部地区房地产业有发展过热倾向;由于房价上涨引起的房地产资产增加对居民消费的挤出效应远大于财富效应;房价波动对房地产开发投资和存货投资的长期影响均很显著,且均表现为正向效应,短期影响则不显著;和其他国家房地产业相比,虽然我国房地产业对其他产业有较强的总体带动效应,但在所带动的产业中仍以物质型和传统型的产业为主。基于文章的有关结论,本文给出了一些政策建议:一是从长期来看,房地产业不能构成经济持续健康增长的原因,因此,我们在重视发展房地产行业的同时,却不能过分依赖房地产行业的发展。二是推动以银行为主导的融资体系逐步向多渠道的融资体系转变,建立多层次的资本市场体系,有效降低房地产市场波动的风险效应。三是完善房地产市场宏观调控体系,在制定调控政策时,应考虑到在政策传导机制中房地产市场本身的作用,调控政策的执行不能只考虑短期环境,更应该考虑其长远影响。
[Abstract]:The interaction between real estate industry and macroeconomic system is complicated, which makes the regulation and control of real estate market become a very complicated system engineering. So, how to clarify the relationship between real estate industry and macro economy, It is of great significance to promote the harmonious development of real estate market and national economy. This paper adopts a variety of research methods, including quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis, data and empirical evidence. The relationship between real estate industry and macroeconomic system is studied by combining logical reasoning and empirical research. The main research contents of this paper can be summarized as follows: firstly, the mechanism of interaction between real estate industry and macro economy is discussed. In particular, the impact of real estate market fluctuations on the economy is sorted out, and then the transmission mechanism of the effects of house price fluctuations on consumption and investment is analyzed. Secondly, the paper analyzes the industrial correlation effect of real estate industry by international comparison. Finally, through the empirical analysis of the real estate market and macroeconomic operation in Beijing, the main conclusions are drawn. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: at present, the real estate market in China is still in the primary stage of development. In some regions, the real estate industry has the tendency of overheating, the effect of the increase of real estate assets caused by the rise of house prices on the consumption of residents is far greater than the effect of wealth. The long-term effects of house price fluctuations on real estate development investment and inventory investment are significant, and they all show positive effects, but the short-term effects are not significant. Although China's real estate industry has a strong overall driving effect on other industries, it is still dominated by material and traditional industries in the driven industries. This paper gives some policy suggestions: first, in the long run, the real estate industry can not constitute the cause of sustained and healthy economic growth. Therefore, we attach importance to the development of the real estate industry at the same time. But we should not rely too much on the development of the real estate industry. Second, we should gradually transform the bank-led financing system into a multi-channel financing system and establish a multi-level capital market system. Effectively reduce the risk effect of real estate market fluctuations. Third, improve the real estate market macro-control system, when formulating regulatory policies, we should take into account the role of the real estate market itself in the policy transmission mechanism. The implementation of regulatory policies should not only consider the short-term environment, but also its long-term impact.
【学位授予单位】：中国青年政治学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23;F124

【参考文献】