中国虚拟经济与实体经济的关联性——基于规模和周期视角的实证研究

发布时间：2018-03-26 05:11

本文选题：虚拟经济　切入点：实体经济　出处：《中国社会科学》2017年08期

【摘要】：虚拟经济与实体经济背离已成为全球经济体系的"典型化"特征之一,中国经济同样面临"脱实向虚"问题。基于GVAR模型,使用1992—2016年全球主要代表性国家的宏观经济和金融数据,在经济全球化框架下,从规模和周期两个层面重点检验中国虚拟经济与实体经济的关联性。研究结果表明:无论规模水平还是周期波动层面,均存在虚实背离特征;规模水平层面,虚拟经济对实体经济冲击反应具有惰性,对自身冲击反应更灵敏,对实体经济具有"挤出效应";周期波动层面,仅存在实体经济对虚拟经济的短期先导性,非线性格兰杰因果检验进一步验证了背离事实;在虚实背离之下,价格型货币政策能长期抑制虚拟经济与实体经济趋势性背离。这些分析对于习近平总书记指出的中国经济新常态下三大结构性失衡,给予了详实的实证研究支撑。
[Abstract]:The deviation between virtual economy and real economy has become one of the "typical" characteristics of global economic system, and China's economy is also facing the problem of "unreality". Based on GVAR model, Using macroeconomic and financial data from key global representative countries for the period 1992-2016, within the framework of economic globalization, The research results show that both scale level and periodic fluctuation level have the characteristics of virtual reality deviation, scale level level, scale level level, scale level, scale level, scale level, scale level, scale level, scale level, scale level, scale level, scale level, scale level, scale level, scale level and cycle fluctuation. The virtual economy is inert to the real economy shock response, more sensitive to its own impact response, and has "crowding out effect" on the real economy. The nonlinear Granger causality test further verifies the fact of deviation; The price-based monetary policy can restrain the trend deviation between the virtual economy and the real economy for a long time. These analyses support the three structural imbalances in the new normal state of China's economy as pointed out by General Secretary Xi Jinping.
【作者单位】：中央财经大学金融学院;中央财经大学统计与数学学院;
【基金】：国家社科基金重大项目(15ZDC024) 国家自然科学基金面上项目(71473279和71671193)的阶段性成果
【分类号】：F124

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