当前中国经济稳定增长的政策选择

发布时间：2018-03-27 17:12

  本文选题：消费深度习性　切入点：政策选择　出处：《上海经济研究》2017年01期

【摘要】：经济的稳定增长是保证供给侧改革顺利推进的必要条件。但是,自2015年底供给侧改革正式提出以来,我国经济持续下行,当前稳增长问题值得高度重视。首先,通过检验,该文发现了我国政府支出与居民消费存在着同向性变化关系,这验证了我国确实存在消费深度习性问题。其次,改革开放以来我国需求侧管理模式的背景下,该文从考虑消费深度习性问题的视角出发,分析了拉动经济增长的主要工具组合的变化历程、原因及结果,探讨了我国企业当前存在产能过剩问题的来源,指出我国企业当前亟需进行的是升级而非转型。最后,该文通过综合比较得出,当前稳定经济增长的政策选择应主要定位于政府支出(投资)。另外,政府支出(投资)政策需要宽松的货币政策给予支撑,同时当前稳定经济增长仍然需要注重出口。
[Abstract]:Stable economic growth is a necessary condition to ensure the smooth progress of supply-side reform. However, since the formal introduction of supply-side reform at the end of 2015, China's economy has continued to decline. This paper finds out that the relationship between government expenditure and residents' consumption is in the same direction, which verifies that there is a problem of consumption depth habit in China. Secondly, under the background of demand-side management mode since the reform and opening up, From the perspective of considering the problem of consumption depth habit, this paper analyzes the changing course, causes and results of the main tools combination to stimulate economic growth, and probes into the source of the problem of overcapacity existing in Chinese enterprises at present. It is pointed out that the enterprises in our country are in urgent need of upgrading rather than transformation. Finally, through comprehensive comparison, the paper concludes that the policy choice for stabilizing economic growth at present should be mainly focused on government expenditure (investment). Government spending needs to be supported by loose monetary policy, while stable economic growth still needs to focus on exports.
【作者单位】： 上海财经大学国际工商管理学院;
【基金】：教育部哲学社会科学发展报告重点建设项目“世界经济发展报告”(编号:11JBG004) 上海财经大学国家级项目后续项目(编号:2012110831);上海财经大学博士创新基金(编号:CXJJ-2015-323)的资助
【分类号】：F124
，

本文编号：1672459