新型城镇化、产业结构与消费结构互动关系研究

发布时间：2018-03-27 16:32

本文选题：新型城镇化　切入点：产业结构　出处：《山西财经大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：在经济新常态下,经济增速放缓,各种结构性问题呈现。城镇化面临着巨大的挑战,传统的粗放型发展模式已经不可持续,同时也带来了一系列的社会、经济等问题。以钢铁、水泥、电解铝等为代表的传统产业产能严重过剩,甚至一些代表性的战略新兴产业也一度出现了产能过剩的现象,产业结构面临着巨大的转型压力。同时劳动力成本在快速上升,低附加值的劳动密集型产业也面临着巨大的压力。产业结构的巨大压力对于劳动力的转移产生了阻碍作用,不利于农村人口的转移,对新型城镇化的发展产生了挑战。近几年来我国的消费保持两位数的增长,消费由物质消费向服务消费升级,在这场消费革命中蕴藏着巨大的潜力,为经济转型提供强大的生命力,但是也存在着一些问题,出现有需求但是缺少供给的现象。例如在养老产业存在着巨大的消费需求,但是产业的发展严重滞后,这可以成为产业转型升级的突破口。因此在经济增速放缓、产能过剩、劳动力成本上、消费快速增长的背景下,必须将新型城镇化、产业结构升级、消费结构升级三者结合起来进行分析,才能为经济发展提供可靠的理论支撑和政策建议。本文首先通过对相关文献进行研究,尝试对新型城镇化、产业结构、消费结构三者之间的相互作用机制进行理论分析,理清三者之间的相互作用关系。通过构建新型城镇化综合指标体系试图全面反映新型城镇化发展的水平,首先进行新型城镇化指标测算,然后运用协整检验、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应函数以及方差分解对新型城镇化、产业结构、消费结构三者之间的互动关系进行实证分析,分析三个变量的动态响应关系,最后得到的结果基本与理论一致即产业结构升级能够快速促进新型城镇化发展并且促进作用逐渐增强,消费结构升级对新型城镇化发展,随着时间推移作用开始减弱。新型城镇化的发展能够强烈的促进消费结构升级,随着时间推移作用逐渐减弱,产业结构升级能够快速促进消费结构升级,并且作用逐渐增强。本文的研究结论表明,新型城镇化、产业结构、消费结构三者之间具有相互作用的关系,在进行实践时要综合考虑三者之间的关系,有针对性的提出政策建议。
[Abstract]:Under the new economic normal, a slowdown in economic growth, showing a variety of structural problems. Urbanization is facing a huge challenge, the traditional extensive development pattern is not sustainable, but also brought a series of social, economic and other issues. In the steel, cement, electrolytic aluminum as the representative of the traditional industry serious excess capacity. Even some representative of the strategic emerging industries also once appeared the phenomenon of excess capacity, the industrial structure is facing tremendous pressure transition. At the same time, the rapid rise in labor costs, low value-added labor-intensive industries are also facing tremendous pressure. The huge pressure of industrial structure for the transfer of labor has a negative effect, is not conducive to the transfer of the rural population, the challenge for the development of new urbanization. In recent years, China's consumption maintained two digit growth, consumption from material consumption to the service consumption upgrade, in The consumer revolution in the tremendous potential to provide strong vitality for economic transformation, but there are also some problems, there are lack of demand but supply. For example, the huge consumer demand exists in the pension industry, but the industry is seriously lagging behind the development of this industry, can become a breakthrough in the transformation and upgrading. Therefore capacity in the economic slowdown, overcapacity, labor costs, consumption growth must be under the background of new urbanization, industrial structure upgrading, combined with the analysis of the consumption structure upgrade three, in order to provide theoretical support and policy recommendations for reliable economic development. Firstly, through the study of relevant literature, to the new town of industrial structure, theoretical analysis of the interaction mechanism between the consumption structure of the three, the interaction relationship between Li Qingsan by building the new city. The town comprehensive index system tries to fully reflect the development of the new urbanization level, the first new urbanization index calculation, and then using the Grainger cointegration test, Granger causality test, impulse response function and variance decomposition of the new urbanization, industrial structure, empirical analysis of the interactive relationship between the consumption structure of the three, the dynamic analysis of three variables the relationship between response, the final results are basically consistent with the theory that the upgrading of the industrial structure to promote the development of new urbanization and promote the development of gradually increased, new urbanization and upgrading of consumption structure, with the passage of time begin to weaken. The development of new urbanization can strongly promote the upgrading of consumption structure, with the passage of time effect gradually weakened the upgrading of the industrial structure, to promote the upgrading of consumption structure, and the effect was enhanced. The conclusions show that, The new urbanization, the industrial structure and the consumption structure interact with each other. In the process of practice, we should consider the relationship between the three, and put forward policy recommendations accordingly.

【学位授予单位】：山西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F299.21;F121.3;F126.1

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