江苏省保险发展对经济增长的影响路径分析

发布时间：2018-03-29 09:22

本文选题：江苏省　切入点：经济增长　出处：《山东大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：金融作为经济发展的重要推动力,在现代经济中处于核心地位。近年来,我国金融发展水平不断提高,金融发展对经济增长的促进作用日益显现。保险是金融体系的一个重要组成部分,有着金融的特点,也有自身的独特作用。我国保险业自1980年恢复以来,在国民经济中的发挥着越来越重要的作用。江苏经济的发展处于中国经济发展的前沿,近年来省内经济迅速发展,居全国领先水平。近年来,随着江苏省保险业的不断发展保险,保险资产在金融业资产中所占的比重不断上升,江苏省保险业在促进经济增长方面的作用越来越明显。本文总结了保险发展与经济理论,基于此,根据江苏省保险发展与经济增长的实际情况,对江苏省保险发展与经济增长的相关性进行分析,并对江苏省保险发展影响经济增长的路径进行分析,认为江苏省保险发展可以通过风险转移与补偿、投资、技术进步、消费与出口路径影响经济增长。在此基础上对江苏省保险发展促进经济增长的路径进行实证分析。最后根据实证结果并结合江苏省保险发展与经济增长的实际提出有针对性的政策建议。在实证部分,首先用面板数据模型对江苏省保险发展对投资、技术进步、消费和出口的影响进行分析,得出江苏省保险发展是投资、消费和出口的格兰杰原因,不是技术进步的格兰杰原因,江苏省保险发展促进了投资、消费和出口增长,保险发展对消费的拉动作用最强,但对技术进步的促进作用不显著；其次用VAR模型对江苏省投资、技术进步、消费和出口对经济增长的影响进行分析,得出,江苏省投资量、技术进步、消费、出口都是经济增长的格兰杰原因,且江苏省投资量、技术进步、消费、出口都显著促进了经济增长,其中消费对经济增长的拉动作用最强；结合实证分析,可以得出江苏省保险发展通过提高投资量、促进消费和增加出口促进了经济增长,且保险发展通过促进消费对经济增长的促进作用较强。但是江苏省保险发展通过技术进步路径对经济增长的影响较小。根据实证结果并结合当前江苏省区域金融保险发展、经济增长的情况,主要提出如下建议：提高储蓄向投资转化的规模和效率,充分发挥保险发展的投资路径对经济增长的作用；推广科技保险,提高保险对技术进步的支持,挖掘技术进步路径对经济增长的潜力；通过开展保险知识宣传、提高保险业服务水平来充分发挥保险对消费的促进作用；积极发展出口信用险,提高江苏省出口信用险的覆盖面,对江苏省对外贸易提供支持。
[Abstract]:As an important driving force of economic development, finance is at the core of the modern economy. In recent years, the level of financial development in China has been continuously improved. The role of financial development in promoting economic growth is becoming increasingly apparent. Insurance is an important part of the financial system, which has its own unique role as well as its characteristics. Jiangsu's economic development is at the forefront of China's economic development. In recent years, the province's economy has developed rapidly and occupied the leading level in the country. With the continuous development of insurance industry in Jiangsu Province, the proportion of insurance assets in financial assets is increasing, and the role of insurance industry in promoting economic growth is becoming more and more obvious. This paper summarizes the insurance development and economic theory, based on this, according to the actual situation of insurance development and economic growth in Jiangsu Province, the correlation between insurance development and economic growth in Jiangsu Province is analyzed. And through the analysis of the path that the insurance development of Jiangsu Province affects the economic growth, it is concluded that the insurance development of Jiangsu Province can be achieved through risk transfer and compensation, investment, and technological progress. The path of consumption and export affects economic growth. On this basis, the path of insurance development to promote economic growth in Jiangsu Province is analyzed empirically. Finally, based on the empirical results and combined with the actual development of insurance and economic growth in Jiangsu Province, the paper puts forward an empirical analysis. Put forward targeted policy recommendations. In the empirical part, we first use panel data model to analyze the impact of insurance development on investment, technological progress, consumption and export in Jiangsu Province, and conclude that insurance development in Jiangsu Province is the Granger cause of investment, consumption and export. Not the Granger cause of technological progress, the insurance development in Jiangsu Province promotes investment, consumption and export growth, and the insurance development has the strongest pulling effect on consumption, but the promotion effect on technological progress is not significant. Secondly, the VAR model is used to promote investment in Jiangsu Province. By analyzing the impact of technological progress, consumption and export on economic growth, it is concluded that the amount of investment, technological progress, consumption and export in Jiangsu Province are all the Granger reasons for economic growth, and the amount of investment, technological progress, and consumption in Jiangsu Province, Exports have significantly promoted economic growth, among which consumption has the strongest pull effect on economic growth. Combined with empirical analysis, it can be concluded that insurance development in Jiangsu Province promotes economic growth by increasing investment, promoting consumption and increasing exports. Insurance development promotes economic growth by promoting consumption, but Jiangsu insurance development has little effect on economic growth through the path of technological progress. According to the empirical results and the current development of regional financial insurance and economic growth in Jiangsu Province, the following suggestions are put forward: to improve the scale and efficiency of the transformation from savings to investment. To give full play to the role of the investment path of insurance development in economic growth; to promote science and technology insurance, to enhance the support of insurance for technological progress, and to tap the potential of technological progress path for economic growth; and to promote insurance knowledge through the development of insurance knowledge. Improve the insurance service level to give full play to the role of insurance to promote consumption, actively develop export credit insurance, improve the coverage of Jiangsu export credit insurance, and provide support for Jiangsu foreign trade.
【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F127;F842.7

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