产业转移促进区域经济协调发展了吗——基于广东省县域数据的断点回归分析

发布时间：2018-03-30 01:32

本文选题：模糊断点回归　切入点：产业转移　出处：《国际经贸探索》2017年02期

【摘要】：文章基于2002~2013年广东88个县级市和市辖区的面板数据,利用产业转移政策实施对区域发展不平衡的外生冲击进行回归分析。结果发现:第一,在2006年产业转移政策实施以后,广东省区域经济发展不平衡的情况有所改善,产业转移政策实施后人均实际GDP增加111.2%,劳均实际GDP增加34.4%,城镇职工工资增加73.0%。第二,政策在不同地区影响存在差异。粤西地区人力资本、人均资本对政策实施最敏感,产业转移实施通过人力资本、人均资本使泰尔指数分别降低0.000359%、0.000297%。粤北山区政府规模对政策实施敏感,产业转移的实施通过政府规模降低泰尔指数0.000463%。粤东地区、珠三角地区受影响最小。第三,产业转移政策实施通过提高人力资本、增加投资规模、扩大政府规模、提高工业化水平缩小经济发展差距,其中人力资本对区域间经济发展差距影响最大。第四,在考虑到政策的外部性以及产业承接地自身其他不可识别的因素后,结果具有稳健性。
[Abstract]:Based on the panel data of 88 county-level cities and municipal districts in Guangdong from 2002 to 2013, the paper carries out regression analysis on the exogenous impact of unbalanced regional development by means of industrial transfer policy.The results are as follows: first, after the implementation of the industrial transfer policy in 2006, the unbalanced situation of regional economic development in Guangdong Province has been improved. After the implementation of the industrial transfer policy, the actual GDP per capita increased by 111.2 percent, the actual GDP per worker increased by 34.4 percent, and the wages of urban workers increased by 73.0 percent.Second, there are differences in the impact of policies in different regions.The per capita capital is the most sensitive to the policy implementation in western Guangdong, and the per capita capital reduces the Tyr index by 0.0003590.000297through human capital.The scale of the government is sensitive to the implementation of the policy, and the implementation of industrial transfer is reduced by the scale of the government by 0.000463.Eastern Guangdong, the Pearl River Delta region is the least affected.Third, the implementation of the industrial transfer policy through raising human capital, increasing the scale of investment, expanding the scale of government, improving the level of industrialization to narrow the gap in economic development, human capital has the greatest impact on the interregional economic development gap.Fourth, considering the externality of the policy and other unidentifiable factors of the industry, the results are robust.
【作者单位】：中山大学国际金融学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重大项目(16ZDA042) 国家自然科学基金面上项目(71573287) 教育部哲学社会科学后期资助项目(16JHQ034) 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(16wkjc15) “珠海特聘学者” 中国-东盟研究院“教育部长江学者和创新团队发展计划”(CWZ201412);中国-东盟研究院科研项目重点项目(CWZ201412)
【分类号】：F127

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