调整人口就业年限对经济增长的影响研究

发布时间：2018-04-02 12:25

本文选题：调整人口就业年限　切入点：人口结构　出处：《上海工程技术大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着人口老龄化社会的到来以及人均预期寿命的延长,我国早期规定的退休制度已遭到社会发展的挑战,延长人口就业年限将成为必然的发展趋势。人口就业年限与人口的预期寿命、劳动强度以及受教育年限密切相关,对经济发展尤其是经济增长起着非常重要的作用。调整就业年限作为影响劳动人口年龄结构变动的因素直接影响着人口红利及人力资本进而影响着经济增长。调整人口就业年限方式主要有直接延长法定退休年龄、“分步走”延长退休年龄和实行弹性退休制度等方式。由于调整的年限的不同不同的方式会对经济增长造成不同的影响。调整人口就业年限主要是延长退休年龄进从而劳动年龄人口比重的提高,通过增加劳动供给作用于经济产出,促进了经济增长。调整人口年龄就业年限的变动对经济增长的贡献主要表现在两个方面,其一是作为生产要素对经济增长的直接作用即劳动力数量和劳动力参与的影响；其次是其外部性作用即指劳动力与资本相结合通过人力资本对含有一定技术水平的资本的使用提高了一定资本存量提供的服务量,这就表现为人力资本对经济增长的间接作用。经济增长离不开劳动力市场的可持续发展,想要精确的测算出调整就业年限对经济增长的影响首先需要测算调整就业年限对上海市劳动力人口的影响,这又需要对上海市人口发展的规律和特征进行预测。首先本文根据上海市人口的发展特征在人口开放条件下建立人口预测模型对上海未来劳动人口年龄结构进行预测。其次为有效地测算出人力资本对经济增长贡献的这两个方面的作用。本文引入了两个模型一是劳动力数量影响经济增长的模型,二是劳动力质量影响经济增长的模型即人力资本模型并通过不同的调整就业年限方案分别进行测算,然后把二者融入到一个模型进行综合测算分析。最后分析我国调整就业年限的制度现状以及国际比较中有许多值得借鉴的地方如循序渐进地提高退休年龄男女退休年龄趋于一致和推行弹性退休制度等；进而提出调整就业年限实施的方案和对策。
[Abstract]:With the coming of the aging society and the prolongation of the life expectancy, the early retirement system has been challenged by the social development. It will be an inevitable trend to extend the employment years of the population.The employment years of the population are closely related to the life expectancy, labor intensity and education years of the population, and play a very important role in the economic development, especially in the economic growth.The adjustment of employment years as a factor affecting the change of the age structure of the working population directly affects the population dividend and human capital and then affects the economic growth.The main ways to adjust the number of years of employment are to extend the legal retirement age directly, to extend the retirement age step by step and to implement the flexible retirement system.Different ways of adjusting the number of years will have different effects on economic growth.The adjustment of the number of years of employment is mainly to increase the proportion of the working-age population by prolonging the retirement age, and promoting the economic growth by increasing the supply of labor to the economic output.There are two main contributions to economic growth: one is the direct effect of factors of production on economic growth, that is, the influence of labor force quantity and labor force participation;Secondly, its externality means that the combination of labor force and capital increases the amount of service provided by a certain amount of capital stock through the use of human capital to the capital with a certain level of technology, which is manifested by the indirect effect of human capital on economic growth.Economic growth is inseparable from the sustainable development of the labor market. In order to accurately measure the impact of adjusting the number of years of employment on economic growth, first of all, we need to measure the impact of adjusting the number of years of employment on the labor force population in Shanghai.This needs to predict the laws and characteristics of population development in Shanghai.Firstly, according to the characteristics of population development in Shanghai, this paper establishes a population prediction model to predict the age structure of Shanghai's future working population under the condition of population opening.The second is to measure the contribution of human capital to economic growth.This paper introduces two models: one is the model that the quantity of labor force affects the economic growth, the other is the model of labor quality influencing the economic growth, that is, the human capital model, which is calculated by different schemes of adjusting the number of years of employment.Then the two are integrated into a model for comprehensive calculation and analysis.Finally, this paper analyzes the current situation of the system of adjusting the number of years of employment in our country and the international comparison, such as increasing the retirement age of men and women step by step and carrying out the flexible retirement system.And then put forward the implementation of the adjustment of employment years of the program and countermeasures.
【学位授予单位】：上海工程技术大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F249.2;F124.1

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