金砖国家股票市场波动与经济增长关系研究

发布时间：2018-04-02 17:02

本文选题：金砖国家　切入点：股市波动　出处：《山东财经大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：股市波动与经济增长关系一直以来都是国内外学者研究的重点内容。研究金砖国家的股市波动和经济增长的关系意义重大，一方面我们可以通过研究金砖国家股市的波动和经济增长之间关系的研究，来观察股市波动在国民经济增长中扮演的角色，或者国民经济的发展对股市波动的影响有多大；另一方面可以通过对股价波动规律的分析来管理股票市场，使其更好的为经济的可持续发展服务。更重要的是通过研究，金砖国家等新兴市场可以采取有效措施来防止经济出现大起大落和股市的剧烈波动等一系列问题。本文将重点运用实证方法对金砖国家股市波动与经济增长之间的关系进行分析，坚持理论联系实际原则，对股市波动与经济增长的关系进行研究，并采用计量经济方法对股市波动与经济增长之间的关系进行实证分析。通过实证分析，我们得到以下结论：中国和俄罗斯股市波动与经济增长之间不存在长期均衡关系，印度、巴西、南非的股市波动与经济增长之间存在长期均衡关系。并且印度股市在偏离经济长期均衡时，，具有较强的动力从非均衡状态回归到均衡状态。文章共有五部分组成。开始在阅读了大量文献的基础之上对文献进行总结归纳，了解学者的研究方法和得出的结论并在此基础上确定自己的研究角度；然后对所研究方向的理论进行了归纳总结，并以金砖国家股票市场为背景进行了股市波动与经济增长理论的分析；接着用理论联系实际的方法对五个国家的股市波动与经济增长之间的关系进行实证检验，比较分析了金砖国家股市与经济存在或不存在均衡的原因；最后得出结论并提出了政策建议，使本文的研究意义落到实处。
[Abstract]:The relationship between stock market fluctuation and economic growth has always been the focus of scholars at home and abroad.It is of great significance to study the relationship between stock market volatility and economic growth in BRICS countries. On the one hand, we can study the relationship between stock market volatility and economic growth in BRICS countries.To observe the role of stock market fluctuations in the growth of the national economy, or how much impact the development of the national economy has on stock market fluctuations; on the other hand, we can manage the stock market by analyzing the law of stock price fluctuations.To better serve the sustainable development of the economy.More importantly, emerging markets such as the BRICS can take effective measures to prevent a host of problems, such as ups and downs, stock market volatility and so on.This paper focuses on the empirical analysis of the relationship between stock market volatility and economic growth in BRICS countries, adheres to the principle of integrating theory with practice, and studies the relationship between stock market volatility and economic growth.The relationship between stock market fluctuation and economic growth is analyzed empirically by econometric method.Through empirical analysis, we draw the following conclusions: there is no long-term equilibrium relationship between stock market volatility and economic growth in China and Russia, and there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between stock market volatility and economic growth in India, Brazil and South Africa.Moreover, the Indian stock market has a strong motive force to return from disequilibrium to equilibrium when deviating from the long-term equilibrium of economy.The article consists of five parts.After reading a large number of documents, the author summarizes the literature, understands the research methods and conclusions of the scholars, and determines his own research angle on the basis of this, then summarizes the theory of the research direction.Taking the BRICS stock market as the background, the paper analyzes the theory of stock market volatility and economic growth, and then makes an empirical test on the relationship between stock market volatility and economic growth in five countries with the method of integrating theory with practice.This paper makes a comparative analysis of the reasons for the existence or absence of equilibrium between the stock market and the economy of the BRICS countries, and finally draws a conclusion and puts forward some policy suggestions, which makes the significance of this study come true.
【学位授予单位】：山东财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F831.51;F113

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