中国对“一带一路”全域OFDI的区位选择——基于空间效应视角

发布时间：2018-04-02 21:26

本文选题：对外直接投资　切入点：空间效应　出处：《宏观经济研究》2017年08期

【摘要】：在世界经济恢复乏力,主要发达国家单边主义、逆全球化倾向和贸易保护主义抬头,以及中国产能过剩和货物出口持续低迷的背景下,合理布局对外直接投资(OFDI)意义重大。"一带一路"沿线国家多为发展中国家,是未来布局OFDI的战略性地区,但由于发展水平、资源禀赋、市场潜力以及开放程度等差异,致使中国对其直接投资的区位布局长期失衡,不利于实现中国与"一带一路"沿线国家经济协同发展的战略目标。本文运用空间计量方法检验中国对"一带一路"沿线55个国家的OFDI现实,发现存在空间集聚效应,但存在全域空间布局失衡;存在空间溢出效应,但其潜力没有充分发挥;存在第三国对东道国OFDI的挤出效应。据此,本文提出通过加快东道国产业园区建设、发挥亚投行和丝路基金作用改善目标国投资环境、着手多边贸易投资协定谈判等手段,发挥空间集聚效应和溢出效应,规避第三国的挤出效应,按照"多点带面、全域协同"的思路引导中国企业对"一带一路"全域OFDI的均衡布局,实现协同发展的对策建议。
[Abstract]:Against a backdrop of weak recovery in the world economy, unilateralism in major developed countries, a rise in anti-globalization tendencies and trade protectionism, and a continued downturn in China's overcapacity and exports of goods, a rational distribution of foreign direct investment (OFDI) is of great significance. "Most of the countries along Belt and Road's route are developing countries, which are the strategic areas of OFDI in the future. However, due to the differences in development level, resource endowment, market potential and opening degree, the regional distribution of China's direct investment has been out of balance for a long time.This is not conducive to achieving the strategic goal of coordinated economic development between China and the countries along Belt and Road.This paper uses the spatial measurement method to test the OFDI reality of China to 55 countries along "Belt and Road", and finds that there exists the spatial agglomeration effect, but the global spatial layout is out of balance, the spatial spillover effect exists, but its potential is not brought into full play.There exists the crowding-out effect of the third country on host country OFDI.On the basis of this, this paper puts forward some measures such as speeding up the construction of industrial parks in the host country, improving the investment environment of the target countries by giving full play to the roles of the AIIB and the Silk Road Fund, and starting negotiations on multilateral trade and investment agreements, so as to bring into play the spatial agglomerationIn order to avoid the extrusion effect of the third country and according to the idea of "multi-point zone, global cooperation", Chinese enterprises should be guided to balance the layout of "Belt and Road" global OFDI, and the countermeasures and suggestions for realizing coordinated development will be put forward.
【作者单位】：东北财经大学国际经济贸易学院;广州工商学院;东北财经大学研究生院;
【基金】：教育部人文社科重点研究基地重大项目“我国战略性新兴产业全球网络布局及其投资策略研究”(项目号:13JJD790002)的资助
【分类号】：F125

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