东盟国家政府债务对经济增长的影响研究

发布时间：2018-04-03 19:46

本文选题：东盟　切入点：政府债务　出处：《广西大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：在世界经济复苏放缓、欧债危机的阴霾尚未散去的背景下,东盟的经济增长也出现减缓的迹象,部分东盟国家政府债务规模不断扩大,其债务风险问题多次引起国际社会关注。而东盟地区国家作为我国的近邻,和我国不仅在人员来往上关系密切,随着中国-东盟自贸区建设的不断深入推进,东盟国家和我国在经济上的联系也将更加密切,东盟国家的经济及政府债务的发展状况将对我国对外投资及贸易产生重大影响。本文将从政府债务与经济增长的相关理论出发,首先对已有的相关研究成果进行梳理、回顾和总结,再利用BvD数据库提供的数据从债务规模、债务结构等方面对东盟国家政府债务现状进行分析,并初步评估其风险现状。然后选取东盟国家2008-2015年的政府债务及经济增长相关数据,通过引入政府债务率的二次项构建门槛效应,建立动态面板模型从经济增长的视角来探究东盟国家政府债务与经济增长之间的关系,并尝试估计东盟国家最优政府债务规模。研究结果表明:从政府债务对经济增长的角度来看,东盟国家政府债务与经济增长之间存在倒”U”型关系,其最优政府债务规模在70%-90%之间。当政府债务率低于这一比例时,政府债务对经济增长的边际作用为正;反之,其边际作用则为负。进一步研究发现东盟国家政府外债与其经济增长同样存在倒“U”型关系,测算出其最优政府外债率为20.85%。而从东盟国家政府债务现状来看,大部分国家政府债务规模均在最优规模以下,因此东盟国家可通过适当提高政府债务规模来促进经济增长。最后,本文将基于前文研究结果,对东盟地区国家政府债务管理及经济增长提出一些政策建议。
[Abstract]:With the world economic recovery slowing and the gloom of the European debt crisis not over, ASEAN's economic growth has also shown signs of slowing down. Some ASEAN countries' government debt has been expanding, and its debt risk has attracted international attention for many times.As a close neighbor of our country, ASEAN countries and China not only have close relations in personnel exchanges, but also have closer economic ties with China as the construction of the China-ASEAN Free Trade area continues to deepen.The economic and government debt development of ASEAN countries will have a great impact on China's foreign investment and trade.Based on the theory of government debt and economic growth, this paper reviews and summarizes the existing research results, and then makes use of the data provided by BvD database to analyze the debt scale.The present situation of ASEAN government debt is analyzed in debt structure, and its risk status is preliminarily evaluated.Then select the relevant data of government debt and economic growth of ASEAN countries from 2008 to 2015, and construct threshold effect by introducing the second term of government debt ratio.A dynamic panel model is established to explore the relationship between government debt and economic growth in ASEAN countries from the perspective of economic growth and to try to estimate the optimal size of government debt in ASEAN countries.The results show that from the point of view of government debt to economic growth, there is an inverted "U" type relationship between government debt and economic growth in ASEAN countries, and the optimal scale of government debt is between 70% and 90%.When the ratio of government debt is lower than this ratio, the marginal effect of government debt on economic growth is positive, whereas the marginal effect of government debt is negative.It is found that the relationship between the government foreign debt and the economic growth of ASEAN countries is inverted "U" type, and the optimum government external debt rate is 20.85.From the current situation of government debt of ASEAN countries, the government debt of most countries is below the optimal scale, so ASEAN countries can promote economic growth by properly increasing the scale of government debt.Finally, based on the previous research results, this paper puts forward some policy recommendations on government debt management and economic growth of ASEAN countries.
【学位授予单位】：广西大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F811.5;F113

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