陕西省固定资产投资和经济增长关系的实证研究

发布时间：2018-04-05 06:09

本文选题：固定资产投资　切入点：经济增长　出处：《中共陕西省委党校》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：改革开放以来，中国在经济增长和发展上取得了令人瞩目的成就。在推动经济增长的“三驾马车”中，投资一直担任最主要的“助推力”。陕西省作为中国西部地区的代表性省份，经济总量稳步扩大，固定资产投资增速较快。但是，长期以来陕西经济发展对于固定资产投资的过度依赖，使得经济发展呈现出高投资、低效率的发展态势，引发学者们的高度关注。在此背景之下，研究陕西省固定资产投资与经济发展的关系具有重要意义。本文在查阅大量文献资料之后，基于经济增长理论，全面整理了陕西省固定资产投资和经济增长的相关数据，采用理论分析和实证分析相结合的研究方法，考察了陕西省固定资产投资和经济增长的关系。第一章导论。介绍了陕西省固定资产投资和经济增长的研究背景及意义、国内外文献综述、研究内容及方法、创新与不足。第二章固定资产投资和经济增长的理论基础。系统梳理了固定资产投资和经济增长的相关理论。第三章陕西省固定资产投资和经济增长的理论分析。在前文的基础之上从固定资产投资的总量规模和投资结构两个方面对陕西省固定资产投资现状进行分析，其中投资结构主要着眼于固定资产投资的资金来源、产业结构、地区结构三个方面。第四章陕西省固定资产投资和经济增长关系的实证分析。首先，基于1978-2013年陕西省固定资产投资和经济增长数据，通过协整检验、建立误差修正模型，考察两者关系；其次，基于陕西省三次产业的面板数据，运用GLS估计建立回归模型，分析陕西第一、二、三产业的固定资产投资效率；最后，基于关中、陕南、陕北三大地区的固定资产投资与GDP数据，通过投资效益和贡献指标，测度三地固定资产投资的效益和对经济的贡献率。第五章研究结论和政策建议。根据第三章理论分析和第四章实证分析得出：(1)陕西省固定资产投资与经济增长两者之间存在长期的稳定关系和动态均衡机制；(2)陕西省固定资产投资与经济增长两者之间存在双向格兰杰因果关系；(3)陕西省固定资产投资资金来源单一，并且金额不足；(4)计量结果表明第三产业的固定资产投资带来的边际效率最小，分析原因在于陕西省第三产业固定资产投资相当一部分用于基础设施建设和民生工程；(5)关中地区较之于陕南地区和陕北地区的投资效率较高，相应地GDP对固定资产投资的依赖度也较高。基于上述研究结论，，以陕西省综合、协调、可持续发展为目的，本文对陕西省固定资产投资的政策提出相关建议如下：(1)保持投资规模适度，加大科技投入力度。(2)改善投资环境，拓宽投资渠道。(3)调整投资结构，优化产业布局。(4)协调区域间投资配置。
[Abstract]:Since reform and opening up, China has made remarkable achievements in economic growth and development.In the troika that drives economic growth, investment has been the main boost.As a representative province of western China, Shaanxi Province has steadily expanded its economy and fixed asset investment has grown rapidly.However, for a long time, the economic development of Shaanxi has been excessively dependent on fixed assets investment, which makes the economic development present a trend of high investment and low efficiency, which has aroused the scholars' attention.Under this background, it is of great significance to study the relationship between fixed asset investment and economic development in Shaanxi Province.Based on the theory of economic growth, this paper collates the relevant data of fixed asset investment and economic growth in Shaanxi Province, and adopts the research method of combining theoretical analysis and empirical analysis.The relationship between fixed asset investment and economic growth in Shaanxi Province was investigated.Chapter one: introduction.This paper introduces the research background and significance of fixed asset investment and economic growth in Shaanxi Province, literature review at home and abroad, research contents and methods, innovation and deficiency.The second chapter is the theoretical basis of fixed asset investment and economic growth.Systematically combing the fixed asset investment and economic growth related theories.The third chapter is the theoretical analysis of fixed asset investment and economic growth in Shaanxi Province.On the basis of the above, the paper analyzes the current situation of fixed assets investment in Shaanxi Province from two aspects of the total scale and investment structure of fixed assets investment, in which the investment structure mainly focuses on the capital source and industrial structure of fixed assets investment.Three aspects of regional structure.Chapter IV empirical analysis of the relationship between fixed asset investment and economic growth in Shaanxi Province.Firstly, based on the fixed asset investment and economic growth data of Shaanxi Province from 1978 to 2013, the error correction model is established through cointegration test, and the relationship between them is investigated. Secondly, based on the panel data of three industries in Shaanxi Province, the regression model is established by using GLS estimation.Finally, based on the data of fixed assets investment and GDP in Guanzhong, southern and northern Shaanxi regions, the paper analyzes the efficiency of fixed assets investment in the first, second and third industries of Shaanxi, and through the index of investment benefit and contribution,Measure the benefit of investment in fixed assets and the contribution rate to the economy.Chapter V: conclusions and policy recommendations.According to the theoretical analysis in chapter 3 and empirical analysis in chapter 4, it is concluded that there is a long-term stable relationship between fixed asset investment and economic growth in Shaanxi Province and a dynamic equilibrium mechanism. 2) fixed asset investment and economic growth in Shaanxi Province.There is a two-way Granger causality between the two parties. (3) there is a single source of capital for fixed asset investment in Shaanxi Province.And the measurement results show that the marginal efficiency of fixed assets investment in the tertiary industry is the smallest.The reason for the analysis is that the investment in fixed assets of the tertiary industry in Shaanxi Province is quite large in infrastructure construction and people's livelihood projects.) the investment efficiency in the Guanzhong region is higher than that in the southern and northern Shaanxi regions.Accordingly, GDP is highly dependent on fixed asset investment.Based on the above conclusions, and aiming at the comprehensive, coordinated and sustainable development of Shaanxi Province, this paper puts forward the following suggestions for the policy of fixed asset investment in Shaanxi Province: 1) keep the investment scale moderate, increase the investment in science and technology, and improve the investment environment.Broaden the investment channels. 3) adjust the investment structure, optimize the industrial layout. 4) coordinate the interregional investment allocation.
【学位授予单位】：中共陕西省委党校
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F224;F127

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