区域经济网络中地方政府债务风险评估问题研究

发布时间：2018-04-08 13:24

本文选题：地方政府债务风险评估　切入点：区域经济网络　出处：《上海师范大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：我国各省的经济发展存在由空间外溢带来的网络增长效应,同时,地方政府债务偿还风险也存在于区域经济网络中。处于经济网络中的地方政府实际上面临着两个需要平衡的目标:防范地方政府债务风险和稳定经济增长。因此,研究地方经济发展与地方政府债务之间的作用关系,解读我国地方政府债务风险并对其进行评估,已成为我国构建和谐社会需要探讨的现实问题。本文首先以包含两地区的经济体为研究出发点,引入区域生产函数,对经济体中区域的经济发展作简单分析,从而引出我国31省份这一经济体的经济发展存在网络效应这一现状。进一步,以KMV模型为框架,推导出区域经济关联背景下的地方政府债务违约率的理论分析方程,并分析其影响因子。然后,分别利用静态空间面板模型和动态空间面板模型对网络中的地方经济发展与地方政府债务的关系进行实证对比分析,得出相关结论,同时也基于实证分析视角证明了基于地方政府债务出发的区域经济网络效应的存在。在此基础上结合数据的删失性特征,采用生存分析对地方政府债务风险的评估做了实证研究。进一步,将网络空间效应作为区域经济网络中地方政府债务风险的研究出发点,深入分析得出考虑空间脆弱性下的Cox模型是较好的实证模型选择,并对标准生存分析和该模型的实证结果作了简要对比分析。最后,凝练出本文的主要结论,包括:各地政府债务规模差异较大,中央应合理调控各地方政府债务,切勿“一刀切”切断地方政府债务融资渠道;地区经济发展与地方政府债务发展“齐头并进”,导致两者之间空间扭曲化现象严重;区域经济发展存在空间网络效应,且空间网络效应下地方政府债务对区域经济发展存在倒U型关系,故政府应合理界定债务阈值,加强债务限额体制的合理构建。不考虑地方政府主观上不愿意偿还和政府的预算软约束现象,仅从地方政府的偿还能力出发的研究结果表明我国地方政府自2010年起不发生债务违约的概率已降至10%。区域经济网络(空间网络)效应背景下经济增长率与地方政府债务风险存在同方向作用关系,经济发展速度过快的地区的政府债务违约率高于经济发展速度低下的地区的政府债务违约概率。考虑空间效应和不考虑空间效应的研究结果对比表明各协变量对地方政府发生债务违约的时间的影响都发生了变化。基于实证角度,本文通过随机效应方差的后验均值的变化和DIC准则的评估验证了空间脆弱性的Cox模型更适合地方政府债务风险评估的问题研究。进一步,本文提出了两点研究方向,一是基于区域经济学的视角探究地方政府债务风险,二是探讨新常态背景下地方政府债务资金运动效应机制带来的地方政府债务风险的新变化是怎样的趋势。
[Abstract]:The economic development of the provinces in China has the network growth effect brought by the spatial spillover, and the risk of local government debt repayment also exists in the regional economic network.In fact, the local government in the economic network faces two goals that need to be balanced: to prevent the risk of local government debt and to stabilize economic growth.Therefore, studying the relationship between local economic development and local government debt, interpreting and evaluating the risk of local government debt has become a realistic problem to be discussed in constructing a harmonious society in our country.In this paper, the regional production function is introduced to analyze the regional economic development in the two regions.This leads to the existence of network effect in the economic development of 31 provinces in China.Furthermore, taking the KMV model as the framework, the theoretical analysis equation of the default rate of local government debt in the context of regional economic correlation is derived, and its influencing factors are analyzed.Then, the static spatial panel model and the dynamic spatial panel model are used to analyze the relationship between the local economic development and the local government debt in the network, and the relevant conclusions are drawn.At the same time, it also proves the existence of regional economic network effect based on local government debt.On the basis of this, the author makes an empirical study on the assessment of local government debt risk by means of survival analysis combined with the censored characteristics of the data.Furthermore, taking the cyberspace effect as the starting point of the research on the local government debt risk in the regional economic network, it is concluded that the Cox model under the consideration of spatial vulnerability is a better choice of empirical model.The standard survival analysis is compared with the empirical results of the model.Finally, the main conclusions of this paper are summarized as follows: the scale of local government debt varies greatly, the central government should regulate and control the local government debt reasonably, and do not cut off the financing channel of local government debt in a one-size-fits-all manner;Regional economic development and local government debt development "go hand in hand", leading to the serious phenomenon of spatial distortion between the two, the regional economic development has the effect of spatial network.Under the effect of spatial network, the debt of local government has a reverse U-type relationship to the development of regional economy, so the government should define the threshold of debt reasonably and strengthen the reasonable construction of debt quota system.Not taking into account the subjective reluctance of local governments to repay and the soft budgetary constraints of the government, only the research results from the ability of local governments to repay show that the probability of local governments not defaulting on their debts has been reduced to 10% since 2010.Under the background of the regional economic network (spatial network) effect, the economic growth rate and the local government debt risk have the same direction function relation.The default rate of government debt is higher in areas where the economy is growing too fast than in areas where the economy is developing at a low rate.The comparison of the results considering spatial effects and those without spatial effects shows that the influence of covariables on the time when local governments default on their debts has changed.Based on the empirical analysis, this paper verifies that the Cox model of spatial vulnerability is more suitable for local government debt risk assessment through the change of posterior mean of random effect variance and the evaluation of DIC criterion.Further, this paper puts forward two research directions, one is to explore the risk of local government debt from the perspective of regional economics.The second is to explore the new trend of local government debt risk caused by the mechanism of local government debt fund movement under the background of the new normal.
【学位授予单位】：上海师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F127;F812.5

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