中国与东盟经济周期同步性及传导机制研究

发布时间：2018-04-08 21:30

本文选题：中国-东盟　切入点：经济周期同步性　出处：《广东外语外贸大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：20世纪90年代以来，东亚区域经济一体化开始加速推进，中国和东盟关系得到迅速加强与拓展，经济联系日益密切，经济波动相互影响，相互传导，经济周期呈现了同步性的特点。文章借鉴经济周期同步性研究的主流方法，探究中国与东盟经济周期的同步性现象，并就贸易强度、产业内贸易、双边直接投资、产业结构对经济周期同步性的影响进行了研究。本文首先就国际贸易、双边直接投资、产业结构对经济周期同步性的一般传导机制进行分析，然后梳理了中国和东盟的合作历程，接着利用1992-2011年的数据，测度并分析了中国与东盟在贸易、投资和产业结构上的联系及动态发展趋势以及中国与东盟的合作存在的问题，同时运用HP滤波、皮尔逊相关系数以及格兰杰因果检验对中国与东盟经济周期的同步性进行验证。接着运用混合效应，GMM-IV估计对中国与东盟五国面板数据进行实证分析，定量地分析了中国与东盟经济周期同步波动的影响因素。本文通过一系列的定性定量研究得到以下主要结论： (1)中国和东盟经济联系紧密，但是中国与东盟的合作也存在一定的障碍。中国和东盟都是贸易依存度比较高的国家，中国和东盟双边贸易在最近20年得到了高速的发展，中国和东盟的贸易是彼此贸易的重要组成部分，但是东盟国家对中国贸易的依赖程度远大于中国对东盟国家的贸易依赖。其次，在双边投资上，，自贸区建设以来，中国与东盟之间的双边投资与经济技术合作都获得快速发展。中国和东盟是彼此的外资主要来源国。再次，在产业结构上，中国和东盟具有竞争性和互补性，随着经济的发展，竞争性更加显著。同时中国与东盟的合作稳定性受到东盟国家亚太战略的影响，并且双方之间的合作呈现不平衡，这在一定程度上阻碍了中国与东盟合作的深化。（2）中国与东盟实际GDP及增长率的周期波动较为一致，中国和东盟经济周期存在同步性，并且这种同步性真正形成与20世纪90年代以后。此外，中国GDP增长是东盟GDP增长的原因，反之，不成立。说明中国对东盟经济的拉动作用比较显著。随着中国改革开放的深入，中国经济对东盟经济的贡献将会更大。 (3)在中国与东盟经济周期同步性的影响因素当中，可以发现贸易强度、FDI和产业结构相似性都是中国与东盟经济周期同步性的传导渠道。贸易强度、产业结构差异性显著增加了中国与东盟经济周期的同步性，而双边FDI减弱了经济周期同步性，产业内贸易的影响则不显著。基于上述的判断与分析，本文认为需要扩大与东盟国家经济贸易的合作，加强与东盟经济政策的协调；其次，有选择的利用外国直接投资，对资本的流入进行有效的控制；再次，充分利用相互开放市场的有利条件，深化行业合作，促进行业对接，打造优势互补的产业链，实现互利共赢。
[Abstract]:Since the 1990s, the regional economic integration in East Asia has been accelerated, the relations between China and ASEAN have been strengthened and expanded rapidly, the economic ties have become closer and closer, and the economic fluctuations have influenced each other and conducted each other.The business cycle presents the characteristic of synchronism.Based on the mainstream research methods of business cycle synchronization, this paper explores the synchronism between China and ASEAN, and discusses the trade intensity, intra-industry trade and bilateral direct investment.The influence of industrial structure on the synchronism of economic cycle is studied.This paper first analyzes the general transmission mechanism of the synchronism of economic cycle on international trade, bilateral direct investment and industrial structure, then combs the course of cooperation between China and ASEAN, and then makes use of the data from 1992 to 2011.This paper measures and analyzes the relationship and dynamic development trend of trade, investment and industrial structure between China and ASEAN, and the problems existing in the cooperation between China and ASEAN. At the same time, HP filter is used.Pearson correlation coefficient and Granger causality test are used to verify the synchronism of economic cycle between China and ASEAN.Then the mixed effect GMM-IV estimation is used to empirically analyze the panel data of China and ASEAN, and the factors influencing the synchronous fluctuation of the economic cycle between China and ASEAN are analyzed quantitatively.Through a series of qualitative and quantitative studies, this paper draws the following main conclusions:China and ASEAN have close economic ties, but there are some obstacles to cooperation between China and ASEAN.Both China and ASEAN are highly dependent on trade. Bilateral trade between China and ASEAN has developed at a high speed in the last 20 years. Trade between China and ASEAN is an important part of each other's trade.But ASEAN countries depend more on Chinese trade than on ASEAN countries.Secondly, bilateral investment and economic and technological cooperation between China and ASEAN have developed rapidly since the construction of the FTA.China and ASEAN are each other's main source of foreign investment.Thirdly, in the industrial structure, China and ASEAN are competitive and complementary, and with the development of economy, the competitiveness is more obvious.At the same time, the stability of cooperation between China and ASEAN is influenced by the Asia-Pacific strategy of ASEAN countries, and the cooperation between China and ASEAN is unbalanced, which to some extent hinders the deepening of cooperation between China and ASEAN.(2) the cycle fluctuation of actual GDP and growth rate between China and ASEAN is consistent, and there is synchronism between China and ASEAN in economic cycle, and this synchronism is really formed after 1990s.In addition, China's GDP growth is the cause of ASEAN GDP growth, otherwise, not true.This shows that China's role in stimulating ASEAN's economy is quite significant.With the deepening of China's reform and opening-up, China's economy will contribute more to ASEAN's economy.3) among the influencing factors of synchronism between China and ASEAN, it can be found that the trade intensity and the similarity of industrial structure are the transmission channels of synchronism between China and ASEAN.The trade intensity and industrial structure difference significantly increase the synchronism of the economic cycle between China and ASEAN, while bilateral FDI weakens the synchronism of economic cycle, while the influence of intra-industry trade is not significant.Based on the above judgment and analysis, this paper argues that it is necessary to expand economic and trade cooperation with ASEAN countries and strengthen the coordination of economic policies with ASEAN. Secondly, it is necessary to use foreign direct investment selectively to effectively control the inflow of capital.Thirdly, we should make full use of the favorable conditions of open market, deepen industry cooperation, promote industry docking, build industry chain with complementary advantages, and realize mutual benefit and win-win situation.
【学位授予单位】：广东外语外贸大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F124.8;F113.7

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