我国经济周期波动与产业结构变动的相关性研究

发布时间：2018-04-09 05:38

本文选题：经济周期波动　切入点：产业结构变动　出处：《重庆大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：经济周期波动作为总量经济增长的具体表现形式一直是主流经济学界重点关注的课题。构成总量经济的产业部门结构及其变动规律，在经济学理论中被认为是经济增长的周期性波动所致。国内外学者关于经济周期波动与产业结构变动的相关性研究中，都从不同程度上表明了经济增长的周期性波动与产业结构变动的相关性。本文以经典经济理论和国内外具有代表性的相关研究为基础，将理论与实证研究相结合，探讨我国经济周期波动与产业结构变动的相关关系。首先，本文通过文献整理，分析了经济周期波动与产业结构变动的相关性的国内外研究现状，发现国内外学者的研究都紧跟工业化与结构演进的进程。在此基础上，归纳出经济周期波动、产业结构变动的相关基础理论，本文将重点参考经济周期长波理论、经济周期阶段理论、产业结构演进理论。其次，分别讨论我国经济周期波动的衡量以及产业结构变动的衡量问题。本文基于前期理论研究给出了经济周期波动、产业结构变动的概念，进而选取合适的测度指标对两者进行量化分析。就经济周期波动而言，本文从宏观上划分了以我国经济增长率衡量的经济周期波动阶段；而对产业结构变动的研究，主要测度了我国宏观三次产业结构变动，并对描述分析了其基本变动特征。接着，本文在整体趋势研究的视角下，对我国经济周期波动与三次产业结构变动的相关性做实证研究。采用直观描述和回归计量相结合的方式初步探讨我国三次产业结构变动对经济增长波动的影响，，进而建立两组指标对经济周期波动与产业结构变动的因果关系进行实证检验。结果表明，我国经济周期波动与产业结构变动之间存在显著的互动联系。最后，本文以我国工业部门产业细分为例，进一步分析了我国经济周期波动与细分后的产业部门内部结构变动之间的相关性。本文在对我国工业部门细分产业进行重新划分的基础上，测度我国工业部门产业结构变动情况，进而分别描述我国改革开放后经济周期波动阶段中工业部门产业结构变动情况，并最终通过向量自回归模型（VAR）对我国经济周期波动与工业部门产业结构变动的内在联系做实证分析。结果表明，我国基础工业部门中的资源垄断产业结构变动是经济周期波动的前置信号，而食品工业、纺织工业等主要消费品工业部门在国民经济中的比例结构变动对经济周期波动具有时滞效应。归纳总结全篇研究结论后，本文从与产业结构变动的互动关系上提出了推动我国经济增长平稳波动的政策建议。
[Abstract]:As the concrete manifestation of gross economic growth, business cycle fluctuation has always been a major concern of mainstream economists.The industrial sector structure and its changing law of gross economy are considered to be caused by the cyclical fluctuation of economic growth in economic theory.In the research on the correlation between economic cycle fluctuation and industrial structure change, domestic and foreign scholars show the correlation between the cyclical fluctuation of economic growth and the change of industrial structure to varying degrees.On the basis of classical economic theory and domestic and foreign representative research, this paper combines theory with empirical research to explore the relationship between the fluctuation of economic cycle and the change of industrial structure in China.First of all, this paper analyzes the domestic and foreign research status of the correlation between the economic cycle fluctuation and the industrial structure change, and finds that the research of domestic and foreign scholars are closely following the process of industrialization and structural evolution.On this basis, the basic theories of economic cycle fluctuation and industrial structure change are summed up. This paper mainly refers to the long wave theory of economic cycle, the theory of stage of economic cycle, and the theory of evolution of industrial structure.Secondly, the measurement of economic cycle fluctuation and the change of industrial structure are discussed respectively.Based on the previous theoretical research, this paper gives the concepts of economic cycle fluctuation and industrial structure change, and then selects appropriate measurement indicators to analyze them quantitatively.As far as the economic cycle fluctuation is concerned, this paper divides the period of the economic cycle fluctuation based on the economic growth rate of our country macroscopically, and the research on the change of industrial structure mainly measures the change of the macro three times industrial structure of our country.And the basic variation characteristics of the description are analyzed.Then, from the perspective of overall trend research, this paper makes an empirical study on the correlation between the fluctuation of economic cycle and the change of tertiary industrial structure in China.This paper discusses the effect of three industrial structure changes on the fluctuation of economic growth by using the combination of visual description and regression measurement, and then establishes two sets of indicators to test the causality between the economic cycle fluctuation and the industrial structure change.The results show that there is a significant interaction between the fluctuation of economic cycle and the change of industrial structure.Finally, taking the industrial subdivision of China's industrial sector as an example, this paper further analyzes the correlation between the fluctuation of the economic cycle and the internal structural changes of the industrial sector after the segmentation.On the basis of redividing the subdivided industries of China's industrial sector, this paper measures the changes of industrial structure in China's industrial sector, and then describes the changes of industrial sector's industrial structure in the period of economic cycle fluctuation after China's reform and opening up.Finally, through the vector autoregressive model (VAR), the paper makes an empirical analysis of the internal relationship between the fluctuation of the economic cycle and the industrial structure change in the industrial sector in China.The results show that the structural change of resource monopoly industry in China's basic industrial sector is the leading signal of economic cycle fluctuation, while the food industry,The change of proportion structure in the national economy of the textile industry and other major consumer industries has a time-delay effect on the economic cycle fluctuation.After summing up the conclusions of the whole study, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions to promote the steady fluctuation of China's economic growth from the interactive relationship with the change of industrial structure.
【学位授予单位】：重庆大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F124.8;F121.3

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