中国区域经济周期同步性及其影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-04-09 12:22

本文选题：区域经济周期　切入点：同步性　出处：《东北师范大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：区域经济周期同步性及其影响因素研究是区域经济学研究中的重要领域,就中国而言,该研究对于制定区域政策以缩小地区差距,促进区域合作与协调发展有重要意义。为此,本文选取中国30个省、自治区和直辖市(西藏自治区除外)2005年第一季度至2016年第四季度的地区生产总值数据,经消胀,季节调整后,运用HP滤波方法将地区生产总值数据分解为趋势成分和周期成分,用以分析中国区域经济周期波动,然后利用周期变量计算两两地区之间的皮尔逊相关系数考察中国区域经济周期的同步性程度,并利用Fisher转换方法把各省之间的两两相关系数转化为总体相关系数,衡量中国整体区域经济周期同步性。在此基础上,运用回归方法检验地方财政政策差异、中央财政政策差异、区域双边贸易变量、区域间贸易开放度变量、区域间产业结构差异变量以及引力变量等因素对中国区域经济周期同步性的影响。本文共分为以下五个部分:第一部分为引言,主要介绍了本文的研究背景和研究意义,系统地归纳了区域经济周期、同步性及其影响因素的相关文献研究,并在此基础上确定了本文的研究方向、研究思路、研究内容以及研究方法。第二部分为中国区域经济周期的测度与分析,主要包括区域经济周期测度方法的选择、样本数据的选取、度量指标的计算以及中国区域经济周期波动的相关分析。第三部分为中国区域经济周期同步性程度的测算与分析,首先选取区域经济周期同步性的测度方法,根据已获得的经济周期变量,测算并分析中国各地区间以及整体区域经济周期同步性程度。第四部分是主要采用回归分析的方法对中国区域经济周期同步性的影响因素进行实证研究,包括中国区域经济周期同步性各项影响因素的确定、指标选取、建立实证模型、数据处理以及估计结果分析。第五部分为结论与政策启示,主要包括研究结论、政策启示以及展望和不足。根据本文的估计结果归纳研究结论,同时获取相应政策启示,并总结本文研究的不足之处。
[Abstract]:The regional economic cycle synchronization and its influencing factors is an important research field of regional economics, it Chinese, the study for the development of regional policy to narrow the gap between regions, it has important significance in promoting regional cooperation and coordination development. Therefore, this paper selects 30 China Province, autonomous regions and municipalities (except Tibet Autonomous Region) GDP data, the first quarter of 2005 to the fourth quarter of 2016 by Xiaozhang, seasonally adjusted, using the HP filtering method to GDP data is decomposed into trend components and cycle components, to the analysis of Chinese regional economic cycle, then the cycle variables Pearson correlation coefficient calculated between the 22 areas of synchronization of the level of regional economic China cycle, and the use of Fisher conversion method to 22 correlation coefficients between the provinces into the overall correlation coefficient, measure the whole country area Domain business cycle synchronization. On this basis, using the regression method to test differences in local fiscal policy, the central fiscal policy differences, regional and bilateral trade variables, inter regional trade openness variables. The effect of inter regional differences in industrial structure variables and gravity variables on synchronization of China regional economic cycle. This paper is divided into the following five parts: the first part is introduction, mainly introduces the research background and significance, summarized the regional economic cycle, literature on synchronization and its influencing factors, and on this basis to determine the direction of research, the research ideas, research contents and research methods. The second part is the measurement and analysis of regional the economic cycle Chinese, mainly includes the regional economic cycle measurement methods, sample data, calculation and measurement index of China regional economic cycle Correlation analysis of fluctuations. The third part is the calculation and analysis of the regional economic cycle China degree of synchrony, first select the method to measure the regional economic cycle synchronization, according to the economic cycle variables have been obtained, calculate and analyze the area China between the whole region and the economic cycle synchronization. The fourth part is the empirical study used the method of regression analysis the impact on regional economic cycle Chinese synchronization factors, including determining factors, the regional economic cycle China synchronization of the impact indicators selection, the establishment of the empirical model, data processing and analysis of the estimation results. The fifth part is the conclusion and policy implications, including the main research conclusions, policy implications and prospects and shortcomings. According to the the estimation results of this paper summarized the conclusion of the study, and obtain the corresponding policy implications, and summed up the inadequacies of this study.

【学位授予单位】：东北师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F124.8

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