人口流动、产业结构转变对上海市绿色GDP的影响研究

发布时间：2018-04-12 06:08

本文选题：绿色GDP + 人口流动　；参考：《中国软科学》2017年04期

【摘要】：绿色GDP作为扣除经济发展所引起的资源耗减成本和环境损失代价后的国内生产总值,克服了传统GDP在可持续发展度量方面存在的不足。本文采用绿色GDP作为衡量经济健康发展的指标,运用结构向量自回归(SVAR)模型,分析上海市2000年-2014年人口流动、产业结构变动与绿色GDP的关系,又通过向量误差修正模型(VEC)研究上海市绿色经济增长对江、浙两省绿色经济增长的辐射效应。结果表明:人口流动在短时间内抑制了绿色GDP的发展,但长期看来这种影响将逐步消失;而人口流动在短期内提升产业结构转变,但随着时间推移人口结构稳定后,产业结构变动也稳定下来;另外,人口的流入对上海市绿色GDP增量的作用要大于产业结构变动对绿色GDP增量的作用。同时,上海市绿色经济增长对江、浙两省绿色经济的发展也起着正向的带动作用。
[Abstract]:Green GDP, as the gross domestic product after deducting the cost of resource consumption and environmental loss caused by economic development, overcomes the shortcomings of traditional GDP in the measurement of sustainable development.In this paper, green GDP is used as the index to measure the healthy development of the economy, and the structural vector autoregressive model is used to analyze the relationship between population mobility, industrial structure change and green GDP in Shanghai from 2000 to 2014.The radiation effect of Shanghai green economic growth on the growth of Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces is also studied by vector error correction model (VEC).The results show that the population mobility inhibits the development of green GDP in a short period of time, but in the long run the effect will gradually disappear, while the population mobility will upgrade the industrial structure in the short term, but after the population structure is stable over time,In addition, the effect of population inflow on green GDP increment of Shanghai is greater than that of industrial structure change on green GDP increment.At the same time, the growth of green economy in Shanghai also plays a positive role in the development of green economy in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces.
【作者单位】：上海师范大学商学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(71373162) 上海市会计学会重点项目(SHKJ2016ZD04)
【分类号】：C924.2;F127

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