三峡库区经济增长对环境质量影响的实证研究

发布时间：2018-04-17 07:12

本文选题：三峡库区 + 环境质量　；参考：《重庆工商大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：2003年6月以来，三峡库区开始蓄水，蓄水之后，三峡库区自然环境条件发生了很大变化。9年以来，随着三峡库区的经济快速的发展，该地区将面临更加严峻的生态与环境形势。因此，充分揭示三峡库区经济增长对环境质量的影响，深入探讨合理保护库区环境，对库区未来的经济环境协调发展提供合理建议，具有重要的意义。本文首先对经济增长与环境关系的现有研究进行综述，梳理环境与经济理论研究，包括可持续发展理论，经济协调发展理论，环境库兹涅茨曲线理论等，并对三峡库区环境与经济的相关文章进行梳理。其次，以三峡库区整体作为研究对象，对库区的经济增长和环境质量现状进行深入的分析，经济现状包括经济总量，人均GDP，产业结构，工业增加值，环境现状包括工业废水与农业面源污染。在对三峡库区的经济与环境现状进行分析后，通过相关理论将环境污染区分为点源污染与面源污染两大体系，从中选出10个指标并结合理论知识和收集到的数据，运用时序全局主成分分析法验证三峡库区经济增长与综合环境质量、工业废水排放量、工业废水氨氮含量，工业废水化学需氧量是否存在EKC曲线。本文通过研究主要得出以下结论：第一，三峡库区综合环境质量与经济增长之间并不存在倒“U”型曲线，而是呈“S”型曲线，即环境质量随经济增长先改善，后恶化，再改善的趋势；第二，三峡库区的工业废水排放量，工业废水氨氮含量，工业废水化学需氧量与经济增长之间也不存在EKC曲线，而是随着经济增长出现线性下降的趋势；第三，三峡库区农业污染严重，化肥与经济增长呈现倒“U”型，即存在EKC曲线，而农药与人均GDP不存在EKC曲线，而是随着经济增长呈线性增长趋势。在验证EKC曲线存在性后，通过经济增长对环境质量影响的三个效应，包括规模效应，，结构效应，技术效应，对综合环境质量进行实证分析，发现：第一，经济规模增大1单位，环境污染增大0.24825单位；第二，第二产业增大1单位，环境污染增大0.172565单位；第三，技术进步1单位，环境污染降低0.247174单位。通过上述分析，给出的对策建议包括以下几点：第一，坚持可持续发展战略，促进库区经济繁荣；第二，深化体制改革，落实环保政策；第三，优化产业结构，转变发展方式；第四，推进技术革新，加强技术人才培养、引进。
[Abstract]:Since June 2003, the three Gorges Reservoir area began to store water, after which the natural environment conditions of the three Gorges Reservoir area have changed greatly. In the past 9 years, with the rapid economic development of the three Gorges Reservoir area, the region will face a more severe ecological and environmental situation.Therefore, it is of great significance to fully reveal the impact of economic growth on environmental quality in the three Gorges Reservoir area, to explore the reasonable protection of the environment in the reservoir area, and to provide reasonable suggestions for the coordinated development of the future economic environment in the reservoir area.Firstly, this paper summarizes the existing research on the relationship between economic growth and environment, combing the theoretical research of environment and economy, including the theory of sustainable development, the theory of coordinated economic development, the theory of environmental Kuznets curve, etc.And the three Gorges Reservoir area environment and economic related articles are combed.Secondly, taking the whole three Gorges Reservoir area as the research object, this paper makes a deep analysis of the present situation of economic growth and environmental quality in the reservoir area. The present economic situation includes total economic output, per capita GDP, industrial structure, industrial added value.Environmental status includes industrial wastewater and agricultural non-point source pollution.After analyzing the present situation of economy and environment in the three Gorges Reservoir area, the environmental pollution is divided into two systems: point source pollution and non-point source pollution through the relevant theory, and 10 indexes are selected from the system, and the theoretical knowledge and the collected data are combined.The time series global principal component analysis was used to verify the existence of EKC curves for economic growth and comprehensive environmental quality, discharge of industrial wastewater, ammonia nitrogen content of industrial wastewater and chemical oxygen demand of industrial wastewater in the three Gorges Reservoir area.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: first, there is not an inverted "U" curve between the comprehensive environmental quality and economic growth in the three Gorges Reservoir area, but a "S" curve, that is, the environmental quality improves first with economic growth and then deteriorates.The trend of further improvement is: second, there is no EKC curve between the discharge of industrial wastewater, the content of ammonia nitrogen in industrial wastewater, the chemical oxygen demand of industrial wastewater and the economic growth in the three Gorges Reservoir area, but there is a linear downward trend with the economic growth.The agricultural pollution in the three Gorges Reservoir area is serious, the chemical fertilizer and the economic growth show the inverted "U" type, that is, the EKC curve exists, but the pesticide and the per capita GDP do not have the EKC curve, but show the linear growth trend with the economic growth.After verifying the existence of EKC curve, through the three effects of economic growth on environmental quality, including scale effect, structural effect and technical effect, the empirical analysis of comprehensive environmental quality is carried out. It is found that: first, the economic scale increases by 1 unit.Environmental pollution increased by 0.24825 units, second, secondary industry increased by 1 unit, environmental pollution increased by 0.172565 units, third, technological progress 1 unit, environmental pollution decreased 0.247174 units.Through the above analysis, the countermeasures and suggestions are as follows: first, adhere to the strategy of sustainable development to promote economic prosperity in the reservoir area; second, deepen the reform of the system, implement environmental protection policies; third, optimize the industrial structure and change the mode of development;Fourth, promote technological innovation, strengthen the training of technical personnel, and introduce.
【学位授予单位】：重庆工商大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：X22;F127

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