中国经济增长、能源生产和消费与大气环境的关系研究

发布时间：2018-04-20 08:28

本文选题：中国经济 + 能源生产　；参考：《四川农业大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：日渐突出的经济增长、能源与环境间的矛盾,已经成为制约中国社会经济可持续发展的重要因素。伴随经济的飞速发展,中国的能源生产量和消费量不断攀升,其污染排放影响也与日俱增。正确分析中国经济增长、能源生产和消费与环境之间的关系是合理制定切合实际的经济、能源与环境发展战略的重要科学依据,也是促进中国社会经济可持续发展的重要前提。能值分析是综合系统生态学和生态经济学原理基础上提出的一种系统分析方法。它可以把不同形式、类别的能量转化为同一单位标准,从而克服了传统能量方法中的能质“壁垒”,使得包含社会经济系统和自然环境系统的复合系统的定量评价成为可能。本文在考虑排放物影响基础上,对中国一次能源生产和能源消费的排放物影响进行了分析评价,同时从能源生产和消费的整体角度出发,构建了基于能值的、能量的和货币的指标体系,分析2000-2011年中国经济增长,能源生产和消费与大气环境的关系,对系统的协调度进行了评价。本文得到的主要结论如下：(1)中国经济增长与能源存在一定程度的因果关系,它们相互影响：能源驱动经济的增长,反过来,经济增长又刺激了能源消费；快速增长的能源需求促进了能源生产规模不断扩张。(2)中国能源生产和消费结构依然以煤炭、石油和天然气三大传统化石能源为主,其在一次能源生产和能源消费中所占比重超过90%。煤炭仍是中国最主要的能源生产和消费来源；石油生产和消费比重均有所降低,它所占能源消费比重高于其在能源生产中的比重；天然气生产和消费比重均大幅增加；非化石能源生产和消费占比有所上升。中国的能源结构得到了一定优化。(3)中国的能源效率有一定提高,包括能源生产效率(EPE)和能源消费效率(ECPG)。其中,发电及电站供热效率提高明显。(4)中国的能源自给能力(SSRE)有所下降,值得注意的是,石油和天然气的自给能力持续下降。(5)能源生产排放影响(IEEP)在能源相关排放中的贡献持续增加,但能源消费排放影响(IEEC)依然是最主要的贡献者。能源生产和消费产生的相关排放物对人类和环境的压力不断增加,其中,排放物带来的最主要的影响是引起人类健康损失,最大的影响来自PM10。此外,能源消费的环境负荷强度(EIPEC)有所降低,而能源生产的环境负荷强度(EIPEP)有所增加。(6)由于产量和消费量的持续增加,煤炭、石油和天然气生产和消费引起的排放物影响持续上升。其中,煤炭和天然气生产的排放影响(IEEPcoal和IEEPnatural gas)占总排放影响的比重在波动中上升,而石油生产排放影响(IEEPcrude oil)比重持续降低；煤炭和石油消费的排放影响(IEECcoal和IEECpetroleum)所占能源消费总排放影响比重轻微波动,天然气消费排放影响(IEECnatural gas)比重持续增加。(7)中国经济,能源与大气环境的关系得到一定改善,但其速度仍落后于经济增长速度。基于上述研究结果,论文最后提出了相应的对策和建议。
[Abstract]:The increasingly prominent economic growth, the contradiction between energy and the environment has become an important factor restricting the sustainable development of China's social and economic development. With the rapid development of the economy, China's energy production and consumption are increasing, and the impact of its pollution emission is increasing. The relationship between them is an important scientific basis for the rational formulation of the realistic economy, the development strategy of energy and the environment. It is also an important premise to promote the sustainable development of China's social and economic development. The energy conversion into the same unit standard, thus overcoming the energy "barrier" in the traditional energy method, makes it possible for the quantitative evaluation of the composite systems including the social and economic systems and the natural environmental systems. At the same time, from the overall perspective of energy production and consumption, the index system based on energy, energy and money is constructed. The relationship between China's economic growth, energy production and consumption and the atmosphere environment for 2000-2011 years is analyzed. The coordination degree of the system is evaluated. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: (1) China's economic growth There is a certain degree of causal relationship with energy. They interact with each other: the growth of energy driven economy, and in turn, economic growth stimulates energy consumption; rapid growth of energy demand has promoted the expansion of energy production scale. (2) China's energy production and consumption structure remains three traditional fossils of coal, oil and gas. The proportion of the source in the primary energy production and energy consumption exceeds 90%. coal remains the most important source of energy production and consumption in China; the proportion of oil production and consumption has been reduced, and its proportion of energy consumption is higher than that of its energy production; the proportion of production and consumption of natural gas is greatly increased; China's energy structure has been optimized. (3) China's energy efficiency has been improved, including energy production efficiency (EPE) and energy consumption efficiency (ECPG). Among them, power generation and power plant heating efficiency is improved obviously. (4) China's energy self supply capacity (SSRE) has decreased, it is worth noting that The self supply capacity of oil and gas continues to decline. (5) the contribution of energy production and emissions (IEEP) to energy related emissions continues to increase, but the impact of energy consumption emissions (IEEC) remains the most important contributor. The pressure on energy production and consumption related emissions from energy production and consumption to human and environmental pressures is increasing, of which emissions are brought. The most important impact is the loss of human health, the greatest impact from PM10., the decrease in the environmental load intensity (EIPEC) of energy consumption, and the increase in the environmental load intensity (EIPEP) of energy production (EIPEP). (6) the impact of coal, oil and gas production and consumption caused by the continuous increase of production and consumption The impact of coal and gas production (IEEPcoal and IEEPnatural gas) on total emissions increases in volatility, while the proportion of oil production emissions (IEEPcrude oil) continues to decrease; the impact of coal and oil consumption (IEECcoal and IEECpetroleum) on the total emission of energy consumption (IEECcoal and IEECpetroleum) is light. The proportion of microwave and IEECnatural gas increases continuously. (7) China's economy, the relationship between energy and atmospheric environment has been improved, but its speed is still lagging behind the speed of economic growth. Based on the results of the above research, the paper puts forward the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions.

【学位授予单位】：四川农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：X2;F124.1;F426.2

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