中国对外贸易结构与产业结构的互动关系研究

发布时间：2018-04-20 09:06

本文选题：贸易结构 + 产业结构　；参考：《上海社会科学院》2014年博士论文

【摘要】：改革开放以来,中国经济发生了翻天覆地的变化。我国的产业发展和贸易格局都呈现出巨大的进步,同时也伴随着结构性的失衡,其中由产业结构失衡所引致的对外贸易结构失衡,以及后者对前者的反向强化作用,进一步固化了中国的静态比较优势。在此次全球金融危机中,我国以出口为导向的产业遭受了严重打击,而且还成为了众多发达国家实施“两反政策”的主要目标。中国的内外部经济结构性失衡问题亟待解决,特别是对外贸易结构与产业结构的调整尤为重要,它是减少贸易摩擦、避免中等收入陷阱、实现产业和经济可持续发展所必须采取的重要举措。在经济发展方式转变和国际环境发生变化的情况下,应该如何正确看待和评价我国对外贸易结构与产业结构两者之间互动关系?在我国向世界经济强国迈进的征途中,究竟应该选择什么样的贸易战略和产业政策才能实现对外贸易结构与产业结构的良性互动发展路径?这些问题都已经引起了人们的广泛关注。通过查阅文献,本文发现越来越多的学者不局限于研究贸易总量对产业结构的影响,而更多的将视角转移到贸易结构与产业结构的关系,从总量到结构的研究路径表明学术界的研究视角正在不断深入。本文将贸易结构与产业结构的互动关系问题作为研究的主题,目的在于找出两者的良性互动路径,提出基于产业结构升级的贸易政策。首先,本文运用产业经济学和国际贸易学的相关理论,界定了贸易结构转换与产业结构升级的相关概念和内涵。在此基础上分析当前国内外相关研究的现状,本文发现国内学者对中国贸易结构与产业结构的演进过程、互动机制、内在联系的研究,多局限于单一的结构或层次,并没有将其作为一项系统工程；其中研究对外贸易货物商品结构、方式结构与产业结构相关关系的文献较多,针对服务商品结构、模式结构、区域结构与产业结构关系的文献几乎没有。并且几乎所有文献都将产业结构定义为三次产业占国民生产总值的比重,结合中国实际情况,本文认为产业结构优化应该至少包含两个层面的意思,一方面是产业结构的软化,另一方面是工业结构深化。由此得出值得本文深入研究的主题是：将对外贸易结构作为一项系统工程研究其与产业结构的关系。本文从四种角度探讨贸易结构与产业结构的互动机理,即商品结构与产业结构的互动机理、方式结构与产业结构的互动机理、区域结构与产业结构的互动机理、模式结构与产业结构的互动机理, 其次,本文描述了1985-2012年我国外贸易结构与产业结构的演进过程。在货物商品结构中,虽然工业制成品的在出口和进口中皆已占据主导地位,但是我国出口的机械及运输设备的附加值远低于发达国家水平；在服务商品结构中,传统服务项目仍然占据主导地位,新兴服务项目在服务贸易出口总额中所占比重仍然较小；对外贸易方式结构依旧是一般贸易与加工贸易并行,加工贸易比重占据半壁江山；分析对外贸易区域结构,中国的进出口市场集中程度高,没有实现贸易战略多元化；测算对外贸易模式结构,初级产品的进出口仍然主要以产业间贸易模式为主,工业制成品的进出口以产业内贸易模式为主,但产业内贸易水平仍然不高。此外,与世界产业结构演进的一般规律相比,我国第一产业的产值比重大幅低于标准模式中第一产业相应的数值,第二产业的产值比重大幅高于标准模式中对应数值,第三产业的产值比重低于标准水平。从要素密集度的结构来看,资本密集型产业在中国工业总产值的比重持续上升,但是速度仍然较慢。再次,本文对贸易结构与产业结构的互动关系进行实证检验,运用协整理论、Granger因果关系检验、向量自回归(VAR)模型以及脉冲响应等计量方法。本文采用经济总量中各组成部分的自身增长率变化与占总量份额变化的乘积来反映经济结构的变动情况,得出基于结构效应指标度量的贸易结构变化对产业结构调整的贡献。本文发现贸易结构对产业结构影响有一定的时滞效应,其中货物商品出口结构、服务商品出口结构、方式出口结构变化对产业结构的影响较大,而相应的进口结构对产业结构变化的贡献度较小。模式结构、区域结构对产业结构的互动关系很弱。最后,本文不止步于从宏观视角分析贸易结构与三次产业结构之间的互动关系,而且从微观视角研究贸易结构转换对产业结构升级的影响。在将扩展的出口内生经济增长模型引申到一般对数模型后,本文分别考察货物商品贸易对产业结构的影响、服务商品贸易对产业结构的影响、方式贸易对产业结构的影响、区域贸易对产业结构的影响。检验结果说明：第一、可以通过减少初级产品出口额实现工业结构深化；第二、可以通过增加新兴服务进口额使得产业结构软化度增加,而且增加新兴服务的进口额和出口额,可以使得工业结构更加深度化；第三、可以通过减少加工贸易进口额和加工贸易的出口额使得工业化程度提高；第四、为了实现工业结构深度化的目标,应该减少中国同第一大贸易伙伴之间的进出口总额；第五、目前的产业内贸易规模还会导致工业结构深度化下降。本文最终归纳了基于产业结构软化和工业程度深化的贸易政策有：第一、对初级产品贸易领域实施限制性贸易政策,发展具有高技术含量的工业制成品贸易；第二、渐进式扩大服务贸易开放,重点发展新兴服务业,改造传统服务业；第三、发展一般贸易和其他贸易方式,取消加工贸易政策与一般贸易政策中的非对称性；第四、实施区域多元化战略,积极融入区域性贸易组织；第五、采用产品差异化策略,从垂直型产业内贸易转变为水平型产业内贸易。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's economy has undergone tremendous changes. China's industrial development and trade pattern have shown great progress and also accompanied by structural imbalances. The imbalance of foreign trade structure caused by the imbalance of industrial structure and the latter's reverse strengthening effect on the former are further solidified in China. In this global financial crisis, China's export oriented industry has been badly hit, and it has also become the main target of the implementation of the "two anti policy" in many developed countries. China's internal and external economic structural imbalances need to be solved, especially the restructuring of the foreign trade structure and industrial structure. It is an important measure to reduce trade friction, avoid middle income trap and achieve sustainable development of industry and economy.
In the case of the change of the economic development mode and the international environment, how should we correctly view and evaluate the interaction relationship between China's foreign trade structure and industrial structure? What kind of trade strategy and industrial policy should be chosen in the journey to the world economic power to realize the foreign trade knot? Through consulting literature, it is found that more and more scholars are not limited to the study of the impact of the total amount of trade on the industrial structure, and more from the angle of view to the relationship between the trade structure and the industrial structure, from the total to the structure. The path shows that the research perspective of the academic circle is constantly deepening. This paper takes the issue of the interaction between the trade structure and the industrial structure as the subject of the research, and aims to find out the positive interaction path of the two, and put forward the trade policy based on the upgrading of the industrial structure.
First, based on the related theories of industrial economics and international trade, this paper defines the related concepts and connotations of trade structure transformation and industrial structure upgrading. On the basis of this, this paper analyzes the current status of related research at home and abroad. This paper finds that domestic scholars have the evolution process of China's trade structure and industrial structure, interaction mechanism, and internal connection. The study of a department is mostly limited to a single structure or level, and has not taken it as a systematic project; there are many literature on the relationship between the structure of goods and the structure of goods, the structure of the goods and the industrial structure of foreign trade goods, and almost no literature on the relationship between the structure of service goods, the pattern structure, the regional structure and the industrial structure. In the literature, the industrial structure is defined as the proportion of the three industry to the gross national product. Based on the actual situation in China, this paper holds that the optimization of industrial structure should contain at least two levels of meaning. On the one hand, the industrial structure is softened and the other is the deepening of industrial structure. The relationship between foreign trade structure and industrial structure is a systematic project. This paper discusses the interaction mechanism of trade structure and industrial structure from four angles, that is, the interaction mechanism of commodity structure and industrial structure, the interaction mechanism of mode structure and industrial structure, the interaction mechanism of regional structure and industrial structure, pattern structure and industrial structure. The interaction mechanism of structure,
Secondly, this paper describes the evolution of the foreign trade structure and industrial structure of our country for 1985-2012 years. In the goods commodity structure, although the industrial product has occupied the dominant position in the export and import, the additional value of the export machinery and transportation equipment is far lower than the state level of the country; in the service commodity structure, the traditional clothing is used. The project still occupies the dominant position, and the proportion of emerging services in the total export trade is still small; the structure of foreign trade is still parallel to general trade and processing trade, and the proportion of processing trade occupies half of the country; it analyzes the regional structure of foreign trade and the high concentration of China's import and export market and the lack of realization. The export and import and export of primary products are mainly based on the mode of inter industry trade, and the import and export of industrial products is dominated by intra industry trade mode, but the level of intra industry trade is still not high. In addition, the production of the first industry in China is compared with the general law of the evolution of the world industrial structure. The proportion of the value is significantly lower than the corresponding value of the first industry in the standard model. The proportion of the output value of the second industry is significantly higher than the corresponding value in the standard model. The proportion of the output value of the third industry is lower than the standard. Slow.
Thirdly, this paper empirically examines the interaction relationship between trade structure and industrial structure, uses cointegration theory, Granger causality test, vector autoregression (VAR) model and impulse response measurement methods. This paper uses the product of the growth rate of each component of the economic aggregate to reflect the economic knot of the change of the total amount of the total amount. The paper finds that the trade structure has a certain time lag effect on the industrial structure, in which the export structure of goods goods, the export structure of service commodity, the change of mode export structure have great influence on the industrial structure, and corresponding to the industrial structure. The contribution of import structure to the change of industrial structure is relatively small. The interaction between regional structure and industrial structure is very weak.
Finally, this paper analyzes the interaction between the trade structure and the three industrial structure from a macro perspective, and studies the influence of the trade structure transformation on the industrial structure upgrading from the micro perspective. After extending the extended export endogenous economic growth model to the general logarithmic model, this paper examines the goods commodity trade to the industry respectively. The influence of structure, the influence of service commodity trade on the industrial structure, the influence of mode trade on the industrial structure, the influence of regional trade on the industrial structure. The test results show that first, the industrial structure can be deepened by reducing the export of primary products; second, the industrial structure can be softened through increasing the import of new services. The increase in degree, and the increase of the import and export of emerging services can make the industrial structure more deep; third, the degree of industrialization can be increased by reducing the import of processing trade and the export of processing trade; fourth, in order to achieve the goal of deepening the industrial structure, China should reduce the number of China's largest trading partners. The total volume of imports and exports between the two countries; fifth, the current scale of intra industry trade will also lead to a decline in the depth of industrial structure.
This article finally summarizes the trade policies based on the softening of industrial structure and the deepening of industrial degree: first, the implementation of restrictive trade policies in the field of primary product trade and the development of industrial manufactured goods with high technical content; second, the gradual expansion of the opening of service trade, the development of the new service industry and the transformation of the traditional service industry; Three, develop general trade and other ways of trade, eliminate the asymmetry in the policy of processing trade and general trade policy; fourth, implement regional diversification strategy, and actively integrate into regional trade organizations; fifth, adopt product differentiation strategy, from vertical intra industry trade to horizontal intra industry trade.

【学位授予单位】：上海社会科学院
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F752;F121.3

【参考文献】