中国分行业、分区域能源回弹效应实证研究

发布时间：2018-04-20 18:29

本文选题：节能 + 能源回弹效应　；参考：《复旦大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：本文主要从实证的角度来验证我国总体上以及各行业、各地区是否存在回弹效应,即能源利用效率提高是否能够带来能源使用量的减少。文章采用固定替代弹性生产函数(CES生产函数)对我国工业部门总体、工业部门分行业、全国总体和分区域的统计数据进行了实证。通过参数估计获得各部门、区域的生产函数形式,并以此为基础对各部门、区域的回弹效应进行了计算。实证结果表明：1)全国总体的长短期回弹效应均高于100%,提高能效无法带来能源用量的节约：2)工业部门总体的长短期回弹效应在2004年以前较为稳定,波动不大,2005年开始上升,目前均已出现逆反效应,即在其他条件不变的情况下,提高能效无法节约能源用量,反而将导致能源用量的进一步增加。3)行业间、区域间的回弹效应各自存在差异,需要区别对待,分别讨论。根据实证结果,文章认为,仅从提高能源的技术利用效率的手段看,对我国大部分地区和行业来说,提高能源的技术利用效率能够达到降低单位产出能源用量的目标,但是否能够实现能源总用量的减少则不确定。
[Abstract]:This paper mainly from the empirical point of view to verify whether there is rebound effect in China as a whole as well as in various industries and regions, that is, whether the improvement of energy use efficiency can lead to the reduction of energy use. In this paper, the fixed substitution elastic production function (CES production function) is used to demonstrate the statistical data of the industrial sector in China, the industrial sector in general, the whole country in the whole country and the sub-region in the whole country. The form of production function of each sector and region is obtained by parameter estimation, and the springback effect of each sector and region is calculated on the basis of it. The empirical results show that the overall long-term and short-term springback effect of the whole country is higher than 100 percent, and the energy efficiency improvement will not bring saving of energy consumption.) the overall long-term and short-term springback effect of the industrial sector as a whole was relatively stable before 2004 and did not fluctuate. In 2005, the springback effect began to rise. At present, the reverse effect has appeared, that is, under the condition that other conditions remain unchanged, improving energy efficiency will not save energy consumption, but will lead to further increase of energy consumption. 3) among industries, there are differences in rebound effects among different regions. It needs to be treated differently and discussed separately. According to the empirical results, the paper thinks that only from the means of improving the technical efficiency of energy use, for most regions and industries in China, improving the technical efficiency of energy use can achieve the goal of reducing the energy consumption per unit output. But it is uncertain whether the total energy consumption can be reduced.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F124;F206

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