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供给侧结构性改革加剧价格波动吗

发布时间:2018-04-20 19:08

  本文选题:价格自循环 + 投入产出网络 ; 参考:《中国工业经济》2017年08期


【摘要】:2002年以来中国上游行业的价格水平大幅度波动,需求侧层面的外部冲击是引起上游行业价格波动的重要原因,那么,来自供给侧层面的因素又在上游行业的价格波动中起到何种作用呢?本文基于投入产出网络构建了包含多个生产部门在内的动态随机一般均衡模型。研究发现,上游行业内部存在较强的"价格自循环"效应,"价格自循环"效应起到了放大器的作用,使得上游行业的整体价格水平对冲击的反应更加敏感。此外,上游行业拥有较强的市场势力。较强的市场势力与"价格自循环"效应相互叠加,进一步放大了上游行业价格对外部冲击的敏感程度,造成上游行业价格大起大落。价格的大起大落容易扭曲资源配置并对经济产生一系列负面影响。因此,在供给侧结构性改革的背景下,政府通过清理过剩产能、市场退出等形式实现改革目标的同时,应当更加关注上游行业内部的市场势力变动,切实引入有效的竞争机制,防止上游行业市场势力重新增长,防止其与"价格自循环"效应重新叠加造成价格大幅波动,避免供给侧结构性改革成果遭到破坏。同时,在应对价格波动方面,政府也应注重对供给侧的调节,弱化"价格自循环"效应可能带来的不利影响。
[Abstract]:Since 2002, the price level of China's upstream industry has fluctuated substantially, and the external shock on the demand side is an important reason for the price fluctuation in the upstream industry. What role do supply-side factors play in price volatility in upstream industries? Based on the input-output network, this paper constructs a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model including multiple production departments. It is found that there is a strong "price self-circulation" effect in the upstream industry, and the "price self-circulation" effect acts as an amplifier, which makes the overall price level of the upstream industry more sensitive to the shock response. In addition, the upstream industry has a strong market power. The strong market power and the "price self-circulation" effect superimpose each other, further amplifying the sensitivity of upstream industry price to the external shock, causing the upstream industry price to fluctuate greatly. Ups and downs of prices tend to distort resource allocation and have a series of negative effects on the economy. Therefore, in the context of supply-side structural reform, the government should pay more attention to the changes of market forces in upstream industries and introduce an effective competition mechanism, while realizing the reform objectives by cleaning up excess capacity and withdrawing from the market. Prevent the upstream industry market power from growing again, prevent it and "price self-cycle" effect to cause the price to fluctuate sharply again, avoid the supply-side structural reform result to be destroyed. At the same time, in dealing with price fluctuations, the government should pay attention to the regulation of the supply side and weaken the possible adverse effects of the "price self-circulation" effect.
【作者单位】: 东北财经大学经济与社会发展研究院;东北财经大学财政税务学院;中国人民银行张掖市中心支行;
【基金】:国家社会科学基金重大项目“推进农业转移人口市民化:路径选择、财力保障与地方政府激励研究”(批准号14ZDA032)
【分类号】:F121;F726

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