中俄能源合作对两国经济增长影响的实证研究

发布时间：2018-04-22 10:08

本文选题：中俄能源合作 + 能源合作指数　；参考：《湖北大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：能源是一国国民经济的基本支撑,是国民经济可持续发展的血液和动力。我国能源产供能力不均衡,供需矛盾日益突出,国内大部分的能源需求主要依靠进口来满足,能源问题已成为我国经济发展所面临的重要问题与挑战。为了更好地解决能源供需矛盾、保障能源安全、实现国民经济的可持续发展,我国必须利用同俄罗斯之间外交关系良好、具有地缘优势等有利条件,积极开展同俄罗斯之间的能源合作,争取其更多的合作意向与出口份额。目前中俄的能源合作主要体现在原油、天然气、煤炭、电力等常规领域的合作,能源合作目前已经成为中俄经济合作领域的重要内容,并不断推动双方经济发展的水平。文章共分为五个部分。第一部分是绪论,这部分主要从选题的背景和意义入手,介绍了国内外的研究现状,然后介绍文章的研究方法和结构安排,最后阐述本文的创新点和不足之处。第二部分是中俄能源合作与中俄经济增长的概况,对于中俄能源合作的概况从贸易合作和非贸易合作两个方面来展开,然后分析了两国经济增长的概况,并对他们之间的关联进行了分析。第三部分是本中俄能源合作对两国经济增长影响的理论分析,从进口效应和出口效应两个方面分析能源贸易合作对经济增长的影响,通过间接分析,得出非贸易合作对两国经济增长的不同影响。第四部分为文章的实证部分,运用向量自回归模型,建立以能源合作指数为基础的理论模型和以中俄能源贸易量为基础的实际模型,将两个模型的结果进行比较从其差异方面分析得出两国能源的非贸易合作对两国经济增长的不同影响。第五部分为结论与政策建议,结论表明中俄能源合作与中俄两国经济增长的联系密切并对两国的经济增长具有促进作用。中俄能源贸易合作对中国经济增长的解释程度高于非贸易合作,中俄能源贸易对俄罗斯经济增长的解释程度低于非贸易合作；中俄能源贸易合作对中国经济增长的促进作用大于对俄经济增长的促进作用,中俄能源非贸易合作对俄经济增长的促进作用大于对中国经济增长的促进作用。最后提出政策建议,从而对中俄两国能源经贸合作的进一步发展,为中俄更好地建立互惠互利、协同发展的能源战略伙伴关系,为更好的探索中俄能源合作的途径提供理论依据。
[Abstract]:Energy is the basic support of a country's national economy, and the blood and power of the sustainable development of the national economy. China's energy production and supply capacity is not balanced, the contradiction between supply and demand is increasingly prominent, most of the domestic energy demand mainly depends on imports to meet the energy problem has become an important issue and challenges facing the economic development of our country. In order to better solve the contradiction between supply and demand of energy, ensure energy security, and realize the sustainable development of the national economy, China must make use of the favorable conditions such as good diplomatic relations with Russia, geographical advantages, etc. Actively develop energy cooperation with Russia and strive for more cooperation intention and export share. At present, the energy cooperation between China and Russia is mainly reflected in the cooperation in the conventional fields such as crude oil, natural gas, coal and electricity. Energy cooperation has become an important part of the economic cooperation between China and Russia, and has continuously promoted the level of economic development between the two sides. The article is divided into five parts. The first part is the introduction, this part mainly from the background and significance of the topic, introduced the current situation of research at home and abroad, and then introduced the research methods and structural arrangements of the article, and finally elaborated the innovative points and shortcomings of this paper. The second part is the general situation of Sino-Russian energy cooperation and Sino-Russian economic growth. The general situation of Sino-Russian energy cooperation is carried out from two aspects of trade cooperation and non-trade cooperation, and then the general situation of economic growth between the two countries is analyzed. The relationship between them is analyzed. The third part is the theoretical analysis of the impact of Sino-Russian energy cooperation on the economic growth of the two countries. It analyzes the impact of energy trade cooperation on economic growth from two aspects: import effect and export effect. The different effects of non-trade cooperation on the economic growth of the two countries are obtained. The fourth part is the empirical part of the article, using the vector autoregressive model to establish the theoretical model based on the energy cooperation index and the actual model based on the volume of energy trade between China and Russia. By comparing the results of the two models, the paper analyzes the differences between the two countries and concludes that the non-trade cooperation of energy between the two countries has different effects on the economic growth of the two countries. The fifth part is the conclusion and policy suggestion. The conclusion shows that the energy cooperation between China and Russia is closely related to the economic growth of China and Russia and can promote the economic growth of the two countries. The explanation of Sino-Russian energy trade cooperation to China's economic growth is higher than that of non-trade cooperation, and the interpretation of Sino-Russian energy trade to Russia's economic growth is lower than that of non-trade cooperation. Sino-Russian energy trade cooperation promotes China's economic growth more than Russia's, and Sino-Russian energy non-trade cooperation promotes Russia's economic growth more than China's. Finally, it puts forward policy recommendations, so as to further develop Sino-Russian energy economic and trade cooperation, so as to better establish a mutually beneficial and coordinated energy strategic partnership between China and Russia. To better explore the energy cooperation between China and Russia to provide a theoretical basis.
【学位授予单位】：湖北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.2;F451.2;F124.1;F151.2

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