我国人口老龄化影响经济增长的作用机制分析——基于中介效应视角的探讨

发布时间：2018-04-22 10:25

本文选题：人口老龄化 + 经济增长　；参考：《人口学刊》2017年04期

【摘要】：人口老龄化与经济增长的关系研究引起了学术界的高度关注,然而现有分析中少有针对人口老龄化如何影响经济增长等问题进行深入细致的探讨。为此,本文从中介效应角度出发,通过因素分解方法从理论上论证人口老龄化对经济增长的影响存在三种中介路径,即人口老龄化可以通过劳动生产率、劳动参与率以及劳动年龄人口比重影响经济增长速度,同时利用全国31个省市1990~2012年的统计数据验证三个变量确实存在显著的中介效应。经测算发现我国人口老龄化通过劳动生产率和劳动年龄人口比重显著提升人均GDP的增长速度,而劳动参与率所带来的影响则为负。但从增长途径来看,人口老龄化主要通过劳动生产率来影响经济增长速度。主要原因在于生育率下降后,父母增加了对孩子的教育投资,高等教育规模的扩张虽然延迟了大量年轻劳动力进入劳动力市场的时间,但同时通过知识教育和技能培训为劳动生产率的快速提升积累了重要的人力资本。因此从实证覆盖的时间来看,人口老龄化影响经济增长的过程中劳动投入更多表现为质量(生产效率)上的优势,即通过提高劳动生产效率来实现经济水平的快速增长。
[Abstract]:The research on the relationship between population aging and economic growth has aroused great concern in academic circles. However, there are few in-depth discussions on how the aging of population affects economic growth in the existing analysis. Therefore, from the point of view of intermediary effect, this paper theoretically demonstrates that there are three kinds of intermediary paths for the influence of population aging on economic growth, that is, population aging can pass through labor productivity. The labor force participation rate and the proportion of the working-age population affect the economic growth rate. At the same time, using the statistical data of 31 provinces and cities in China from 1990 to 2012, it is verified that there is a significant intermediary effect among the three variables. It is found that China's aging population increases the growth rate of per capita GDP significantly through labor productivity and the proportion of working-age population, while the impact of labor participation rate is negative. But from the growth approach, the aging population mainly through labor productivity to affect the economic growth rate. The main reason is that parents have increased their investment in the education of their children after the decline in fertility, and the expansion of higher education has delayed the entry of a large number of young workers into the labour market. But at the same time, it accumulates important human capital for the rapid improvement of labor productivity through knowledge education and skill training. Therefore, from the perspective of the time covered by empirical evidence, the labor input in the process of the aging of the population affects the economic growth in terms of quality (production efficiency), that is to say, the rapid growth of economic level can be achieved by improving the efficiency of labor production.
【作者单位】：中山大学政治与公共事务管理学院;南开大学经济学院;
【基金】：国家社科基金重点项目:发达国家应对老龄化政策研究(15ARK001);国家社科基金重点项目:中国特色现代社会福利制度框架设计研究(15ZDA050) 广州人文社会科学重点研究基地资助项目
【分类号】：C913.6;F124.1

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