税制结构变迁与产业结构调整:理论诠释与中国经验证据

发布时间：2018-04-23 12:58

本文选题：税制结构 + 产业结构调整指数　；参考：《经济学家》2017年03期

【摘要】：税制结构变迁从理论上既能直接作用于产业结构调整,还能通过内部税种调整与结构变化对产业结构调整产生影响。本文首先从理论层面系统诠释税制结构对产业结构调整的作用机制,然后通过建立动态面板数据模型,采用系统GMM估计实证考察税制结构变迁对产业结构调整的总量与结构效应,结果发现:一是商品税与所得税从总体上均有利于产业结构的优化升级,但所得税的激励效果相对更加显著;二是在商品税政策内部,增值税与营业税可以显著促进产业结构优化升级,但消费税反而会阻滞产业结构的转型升级;三是在所得税政策内部,个人所得税对产业结构调整的正向推动作用相对优于企业所得税;四是提高对外开放程度和人力资本质量均有利于产业结构调整,但固定资产投资的增加反而对产业结构调整产生负面效应。
[Abstract]:The change of tax system structure can not only directly affect the adjustment of industrial structure in theory, but also influence the adjustment of industrial structure through the adjustment of internal tax type and structure. Firstly, this paper systematically explains the mechanism of the tax system structure on the industrial structure adjustment from the theoretical level, and then establishes the dynamic panel data model. The total amount and structure effect of the changes of tax system structure on the adjustment of industrial structure are investigated empirically by using systematic GMM estimation. The results show that: first, both commodity tax and income tax are beneficial to the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure. However, the incentive effect of income tax is more remarkable. Second, in the commodity tax policy, value-added tax and business tax can significantly promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure, but consumption tax will block the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure. Third, within the income tax policy, the positive effect of personal income tax on the adjustment of industrial structure is relatively superior to that of enterprise income tax; fourth, improving the degree of opening to the outside world and the quality of human capital are conducive to the adjustment of industrial structure. But the increase of fixed assets investment has negative effect on industrial structure adjustment.
【作者单位】：安徽财经大学财政与公共管理学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重点课题“财税政策提升战略性新兴产业创新绩效的激励机制与效应比较研究”(16AJY022) 安徽财经大学研究生科研创新基金课题“税制结构与产业结构调整——基于PVAR模型的实证分析”(ACYC2015008)
【分类号】：F812.42;F121.3

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