合肥市综合承载力评价与提升研究

发布时间：2018-04-23 19:05

本文选题：城市综合承载力 + DEA和Malmquist方法　；参考：《安徽财经大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：国家“十二五”规划明确指出：“按照统筹规划、合理布局、完善功能、以大带小的原则,遵循城市发展客观规律,以大城市为依托,以中小城市为重点,逐步形成辐射作用大的城市群,促进大中小城市和小城镇协调发展”。而城市综合承载力正是发挥城市对区域经济辐射带动作用的基础和城市建设目标的综合体现,是城市经济学、社会学和生态学等多学科研究的热点问题。城市综合承载力是在不对城市造成不可逆转的破坏的情况下城市所能承受的最大负荷,即城市内的资源、生态环境和基础设施对城市的人口、社会经济活动的承载能力。多年来中国经济快速发展,城市建设也迅猛扩张,随着工业化进程的加快和城市化水平的不断提高,城市规模不断扩大,面临着人口聚集,资源短缺和环境污染等问题,这些经济发展中的问题给城市综合承载力带来了挑战。2012年中共十八大中首次提出了“五位一体”的中国特色社会主义事业总体布局,将生态文明建设与经济建设、政治建设、文化建设、社会建设并列,明确了生态文明建设的战略地位,而城市综合承载力的提升是“五位一体”建设成果最显著的体现,对于全面构建和谐社会也有着重要的战略和现实意义。合肥市是安徽省中心城市,同时,随着泛长三角区域发展与分工合作的深化、合芜蚌自主创新综合配套改革试验区的发展、皖江城市带的设立和合肥经济圈的崛起,合肥市的战略地位更加凸显,未来的发展对合肥市的资源环境的承载能力提出了更严峻的挑战,研究合肥市综合承载力对促进合肥市的协调可持续发展、充分发挥区域性特大城市的辐射力和示范效应、带动全省乃至长江流域的经济腾飞都起着重要的作用。因此,以合肥市综合承载力为研究对象具有一定的典型性、代表性和借鉴意义。搜集、梳理大量的关于城市单要素承载力和综合承载力的研究成果,在总结前人研究成果的基础上,多方面、多角度地对合肥市综合承载力进行研究。首先,运用CCR和BCC模型方法对合肥市2000-2011年综合承载力进行了纵向比较分析和横向比较分析。其次,运用Malmquist旨数模型方法对合肥市综合承载力效率值的变化趋势进行了分析。再次,在对综合承载力影响因素定性分析的基础上,运用计量经济学方法分析影响因素对合肥市综合承载力的作用方向和程度。通过研究得出主要结论：(1)合肥市综合承载力综合效率值在考察期内不稳定,造成合肥市综合承载力达不到有效的主要原因是规模效率低下。(2)合肥市综合承载力高于安徽省各地市的平均水平,但相对于其他综合承载力综合效率值较高的城市可能存在城市资源、环境管理和要素配置不合理情况,综合承载力问题不容小觑。(3)合肥市综合承载力全要素生产率改进趋势不稳定,总体上呈现出降低的趋势。这主要是因为综合承载力要素配置状况和利用水平总体上没有明显改进,规模效率阻碍了合肥市综合承载力生产率的提高,技术进步也没有为合肥市综合承载力的发展提供强劲的动力。(4)与合肥市综合承载力呈正相关关系的指标是城镇居民家庭恩格尔系数、第三产业产值占GDP的比重和进出口贸易总额占GDP的比重等,呈负相关关系的指标有城镇居民人均可支配收入和人口密度。最后,在总结全文的基础上,从自然资源、经济、社会、政治、文化、生态等整体和谐发展的角度提出提升合肥市综合承载力的政策建议。
[Abstract]:The national "12th Five-Year" plan clearly points out: "according to the overall planning, rational layout, perfect function, with the principle of small and small, follow the objective law of urban development, rely on the big city, take the medium and small cities as the focus, gradually form the city group with large radiation effect, promote the coordinated development of the large and medium cities and small towns". The load is the foundation of the urban economic radiation and the comprehensive embodiment of the urban construction target. It is a hot issue in the multidisciplinary study of urban economics, sociology and ecology. The urban comprehensive carrying capacity is the biggest load that the city can bear under the situation of irreversible destruction to the city, that is, the city. The internal resources, the ecological environment and the infrastructure to the population of the city, the carrying capacity of the social and economic activities. For many years, China's economy has developed rapidly, and the urban construction has also expanded rapidly. With the accelerated process of industrialization and the continuous improvement of the level of urbanization, the scale of the city is expanding, facing the population gathering, the shortage of resources and the environmental pollution. The problems in the economic development have brought challenges to the comprehensive carrying capacity of the city, which challenges the overall layout of the Chinese characteristic socialist cause with the "five in one" for the first time in the eighteen major Chinese Communist Party in.2012. The construction of ecological civilization and economic construction, political construction, cultural construction and social construction are listed in parallel, and the strategic area of the construction of ecological civilization is clearly defined. And the promotion of urban comprehensive carrying capacity is the most significant embodiment of the "five in one" construction achievement. It also has important strategic and practical significance for building a harmonious society in an all-round way. Hefei is the central city of Anhui province. At the same time, with the deepening of the regional development of the Yangtze River Delta and the deepening of the cooperation and cooperation between the Yangtze River Delta and the Yangtze River Delta, the comprehensive reform of the independent innovation of the Wuhu mussels is tested. The development of the inspection area, the establishment of the Wanjiang City belt and the rise of the economic circle of Hefei, the strategic position of Hefei is more prominent. The future development puts forward a more severe challenge to the carrying capacity of the resources and environment of Hefei, and studies the comprehensive carrying capacity of Hefei to promote the coordinated and sustainable development of the city of Hefei and give full play to the regional metropolis. The radiation force and the demonstration effect play an important role in the economic take-off of the whole province and the Yangtze River Basin. Therefore, the comprehensive carrying capacity of Hefei city has a certain typical, representative and reference significance.
Collect, comb a large number of research results about the city single element bearing capacity and comprehensive carrying capacity. On the basis of the previous research results, the comprehensive carrying capacity of Hefei city is studied in many aspects. First, the comprehensive carrying capacity of 2000-2011 years in Hefei has been compared and analyzed vertically and horizontally with the method of CCR and BCC model. Secondly, the change trend of the comprehensive carrying capacity of Hefei city is analyzed by using the Malmquist number model method. On the basis of the qualitative analysis of the influencing factors of the comprehensive bearing capacity, the direction and degree of the influence factors on the comprehensive carrying capacity of Hefei are analyzed by econometric method. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) the comprehensive efficiency value of comprehensive carrying capacity of Hefei city is unstable during the period of investigation, and the main reason that the comprehensive carrying capacity of Hefei is not effective is low efficiency. (2) the comprehensive carrying capacity of Hefei is higher than the average level of all cities in Anhui Province, but it is relative to the city with high comprehensive efficiency of comprehensive carrying capacity. There may be urban resources, environmental management and the irrational allocation of elements, and the comprehensive carrying capacity can not be underestimated. (3) the trend of the overall factor productivity improvement in Hefei is not stable, and the overall trend is decreasing. This is mainly because there is no obvious improvement in the overall carrying capacity and utilization level. Scale efficiency has hindered the improvement of Hefei's comprehensive carrying capacity productivity, and technical progress has not provided strong impetus for the development of comprehensive carrying capacity in Hefei. (4) the index of the comprehensive bearing capacity of Hefei city is the Engel coefficient of urban households, the proportion of third production output value to GDP and the total amount of import and export trade in GD The index of the proportion of P, which is negative correlation, has the per capita disposable income and population density of urban residents. Finally, on the basis of the full text, the policy suggestions for promoting the comprehensive carrying capacity of Hefei city are put forward on the basis of the overall harmonious development of natural resources, economy, society, politics, culture and ecology.

【学位授予单位】：安徽财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F127;F205

【参考文献】