人口年龄结构、人口产业结构与经常项目动态

发布时间：2018-04-23 20:00

本文选题：人口年龄结构 + 人口产业结构　；参考：《浙江工商大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：国际收支平衡是宏观经济调控的四大目标之一,经常项目失衡已经成为众多学者研究和探索的重要宏观经济问题之一。伴随着各国人口老龄化问题的到来,研究人口结构变化对经常项目的影响具有重要的现实意义。人口结构既包括人口年龄结构又包括人口产业结构。通过对已有理论和经验研究的系统回顾和分析,我们发现现有研究只关注人口年龄结构变化,而忽视人口产业结构变化对经常项目的动态影响。因此,本文主要研究人口年龄结构、人口产业结构变化对经常项目的动态影响。首先,本文在OLG框架下建立了一个同时包含人口年龄结构和人口产业结构的经常项目动态模型,并基于该模型全面分析了人口年龄结构和人口产业结构变化对经常项目的影响机制。理论模型表明：人口年龄结构变化和人口产业结构变化均会通过储蓄渠道和投资渠道共同影响经常项目；人口抚养比下降能够导致储蓄率和投资率都上升,但是对经常项目的影响方向取决于储蓄率和投资率相对变动幅度,是不确定的；劳动力由农业部门向非农业部门转移会导致储蓄率和投资率都上升,对经常项目的影响方向则取决于储蓄率和投资率相对变动幅度,也是不确定的。然后,本文利用120个国家1990-2011年的跨国面板数据,从整体上对理论模型的结论进行了实证检验。实证结果显示：样本国家的储蓄率、投资率和经常项目余额均具有明显的惯性特征；少儿抚养比上升或者老年抚养比上升会导致储蓄率和投资率下降,进而导致经常项目恶化；劳动力由农业部门向非农业部门转移会导致储蓄率和投资率上升,进而导致经常项目改善。最后,根据收入水平把全体样本分为高、中、低收入国家,并分别利用37个高收入国家、60个中等收入国家、23个低收入国家1990-2011年的跨国面板数据,从局部上对理论模型的结论进行了实证检验。基于37个高收入国家面板数据的实证结果表明：高收入国家的人口抚养负担上升会导致储蓄率和投资率下降,进而导致经常项目恶化；劳动力向非农业部门转移会导致储蓄率上升,进而导致经常项目改善。基于60个中等收入国家面板数据的实证结果表明：中等收入国家的人口抚养负担上升会导致储蓄率和投资率下降,进而导致经常项目恶化；人口产业结构变化对储蓄率和投资率没有影响,只对经常项目存在显著影响。基于23个低收入国家面板数据的实证结果表明：低收入国家的少儿抚养比对储蓄率、投资率和经常项目均不存在影响,老年抚养比对储蓄率、投资率均不存在影响,但是对经常项目存在显著影响；人口产业结构通过储蓄渠道和投资渠道共同影响经常项目。
[Abstract]:Balance of payments is one of the four goals of macroeconomic regulation and control, and current account imbalance has become one of the important macroeconomic problems studied and explored by many scholars. With the coming of aging population, it is of great practical significance to study the influence of population structure change on current account. The population structure includes both the age structure of the population and the industrial structure of the population. Through the systematic review and analysis of the existing theoretical and empirical studies, we find that the existing studies only focus on the changes of the age structure of the population, while ignoring the dynamic impact of the changes of the industrial structure of the population on the current account. Therefore, this paper mainly studies the dynamic effect of population age structure and population industrial structure on current account. First of all, under the framework of OLG, this paper establishes a dynamic model of current account, which includes both the age structure of population and the structure of population industry. Based on the model, the influence mechanism of population age structure and population industrial structure on current account is analyzed. The theoretical model shows that the change of population age structure and the change of population industrial structure will influence the current account through both savings and investment channels, and the decrease of population dependency ratio can lead to the increase of savings rate and investment rate. But the direction of the impact on the current account is uncertain, depending on the relative magnitude of changes in the savings and investment rates; the shift of labour from the agricultural to the non-agricultural sectors can lead to an increase in both savings and investment rates. The direction of impact on current accounts is also uncertain, depending on the relative range of savings and investment rates. Then, using the transnational panel data of 120 countries from 1990 to 2011, the conclusion of the theoretical model is empirically tested. The empirical results show that the savings rate, investment rate and current account balance of the sample countries have obvious inertial characteristics, the children's dependency ratio increases or the old age dependency ratio increases will lead to the decrease of savings rate and investment rate, and then lead to the deterioration of current account. The shift of labour from the agricultural to the non-agricultural sectors will lead to higher savings and investment rates, which in turn will lead to improvements in the current account. Finally, according to the income level, the whole sample was divided into high, middle and low income countries, using cross-country panel data from 37 high-income countries, 60 middle-income countries and 23 low-income countries, respectively, for the period 1990-2011. The conclusion of the theoretical model is tested locally. The empirical results based on the panel data of 37 high-income countries show that the rising dependency burden of the population in high-income countries will lead to a decrease in the savings rate and investment rate, which will lead to the deterioration of the current account. The shift of labour to the non-agricultural sector will lead to a higher savings rate, which in turn leads to an improvement in the current account. The empirical results based on the panel data of 60 middle-income countries show that the rising dependency burden in middle-income countries will lead to a decrease in savings and investment rates, which will lead to the deterioration of the current account. The change of population industrial structure has no effect on savings rate and investment rate, but only on current account. The empirical results based on panel data of 23 low-income countries show that the savings rate of children in low-income countries, the investment rate and current account are not affected, the dependency ratio of the elderly has no effect on the savings rate, and the investment rate has no effect on the savings rate. But there is a significant impact on the current account, and the industrial structure of the population influences the current account through both savings and investment channels.
【学位授予单位】：浙江工商大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：C924.2;F124

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