保险发展对我国各省份经济增长的非线性影响:基于门限模型的实证检验

发布时间：2018-04-24 05:07

本文选题：保险发展 + 经济增长　；参考：《中央财经大学学报》2017年06期

【摘要】：研究证实保险发展对经济增长具有重要作用,相对于已有的大部分基于国别层面的分析,笔者利用省级面板数据检验保险发展对各省份经济增长效应的研究具有明显的"同质性",有助于拓展我们对保险发展与经济增长关系的认识。以1999—2014年我国30个省份的数据为基础,利用门限回归模型检验了保险发展对各省份经济增长是否存在非线性影响。计量模型借鉴Hansen(1999)提出的"门限回归模型"(threshold regression model),根据数据的内在信息识别出具体门限水平,得到最优分组。文中选取人均实际收入为门限变量,通过检验把各省份分为低收入地区、中低收入地区、中高收入地区和高收入地区四组。实证结果表明保险发展对经济增长的影响并非线性;当某省份人均收入水平较低时,保险发展对经济增长的影响并不显著,但随着人均收入水平的提升,保险发展对经济增长开始产生显著的、递增的促进作用。分别考虑寿险业和财险业对经济增长的作用,得到一致的结果。本文的结论印证了"经济越发展,保险越重要"这一论断。
[Abstract]:Research confirms that insurance development plays an important role in economic growth, as opposed to most of the existing country-level analyses. The author uses provincial panel data to test that the research on the effect of insurance development on the economic growth of each province has obvious "homogeneity", which is helpful to expand our understanding of the relationship between insurance development and economic growth. Based on the data of 30 provinces in China from 1999 to 2014, the threshold regression model is used to test whether the development of insurance has a nonlinear effect on the economic growth of each province. Based on the threshold regression model proposed by Hansenn (1999), the threshold regression model is used to identify the specific threshold level according to the internal information of the data, and the optimal grouping is obtained. In this paper, the real income per capita is selected as the threshold variable, and the provinces are divided into four groups: low income area, low income area, middle and high income area and high income area. The empirical results show that the impact of insurance development on economic growth is nonlinear. When the level of per capita income of a province is low, the impact of insurance development on economic growth is not significant, but with the increase of per capita income level, Insurance development to economic growth began to have a significant, incremental role in promoting. The effects of life insurance and property insurance on economic growth are considered respectively, and the results are consistent. The conclusion of this paper confirms the claim that insurance is more important as the economy develops.
【作者单位】：中央财经大学中国金融发展研究院;对外经济贸易大学保险学院;中信富通融资租赁有限公司;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金面上项目“农业保险的财政补贴政策对农户参保的激励效应测度及最优补贴水平研究:以种植业为例”(项目编号:71573041) 保监会部级研究课题“保险业供给侧结构性改革及监管研究”
【分类号】：F840

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