人口年龄结构转变对居民储蓄率的影响研究

发布时间：2018-04-24 13:53

本文选题：人口年龄结构 + 居民储蓄率　；参考：《暨南大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：生命周期理论证实了人口年龄结构变量是影响居民储蓄率的重要因素，第六次人口普查显示，我国已经初步进入老龄化时代，这种人口的转变是否与我国高储蓄率有一定关系呢，本文将通过理论和实证的研究来对此进行检验。文章首先比较分析了各种消费理论，在此基础上建立了一个迭代模型，从理论上分析了少儿抚养比和老年抚养比影响居民储蓄率的具体途径，但这两个变量对居民储蓄率的作用方向是不明确的。然后本文使用1953~2011年相关变量的全国数据从整体进行分析，VEC和VAR模型的结果证明少儿抚养比的降低、老年抚养比的升高都能导致居民储蓄率增加。接着本文使用更符合我国实际情况的抚养比数据对模型进行了修正，得到了一致的结果；此外，经验证，模型是存在结构性断点的，分段实证结果也证明了人口年龄结构对居民储蓄的影响存在阶段性。最后针对实证结果提出了相应的政策建议。
[Abstract]:The life cycle theory confirms that the age structure variable of the population is an important factor affecting the saving rate of residents. The sixth census shows that China has entered an aging age. Whether this demographic change is related to the high savings rate in China will be tested through theoretical and empirical studies. Firstly, this paper compares and analyzes various consumption theories, and then establishes an iterative model, and theoretically analyzes the specific ways that children's dependency ratio and old age dependency ratio affect the residents' savings rate. But the direction of these two variables to the resident savings rate is not clear. Then, using the national data of related variables from 1953 to 2011, the results of VAR and VEC model show that the decrease of child dependency ratio and the increase of old age dependency ratio can lead to the increase of household savings rate. Then the model is modified by using the dependency ratio data, which is more suitable to the actual situation in China, and the results are consistent. In addition, it is verified that there are structural breakpoints in the model. The empirical results also prove that the age structure of the population has a periodic impact on the residents' savings. Finally, the corresponding policy recommendations are put forward according to the empirical results.
【学位授予单位】：暨南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F126.1;C924.2

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