基于城市碳排放清单法则的江苏省区域碳排放比较研究

发布时间：2018-04-25 09:40

本文选题：江苏省 + 区域碳排放　；参考：《南京航空航天大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：江苏省作为人均GDP占全国第一，GDP总量仅次与广东省的经济强省，其发达的经济水平背后隐藏的惊人的二氧化碳排放量不容小觑，在2007年中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所发表的报告中[1]，江苏省被列为相对高碳区，而经济实力与其差不多的广东省和浙江省则都是低碳区域。再加上江苏省极不平衡的区域发展状况，江苏省的碳排放情况尤显复杂，亟需对碳排放进行更具体更精确的核算和分析，而城市碳排放清单为此提供了很好的参考。城市碳排放清单是从《京都议定书》的国家温室气体排放清单发展而来，目前已经在国内外的一些典型大城市和城市区域得到了很不错的实证引用。因此，笔者基于2000年到2011年江苏省13个城市的能源消费数据对江苏省苏南、苏中、苏北三大区域进行了碳排放清单的编制。然后基于城市和区域碳排放清单内容，归纳总结出不同城市，特别是不同区域的排放特征。并利用STIRPAT模型，用Eviews进行变截距和变系数的回归分析，分别研究了区域排放的总体趋势特征和区域排放的个体结构区别。得出人口规模、人口结构、收入水平、消费水平、技术因素是影响区域碳排放的主要因素。而且，从整体角度和从个体区域角度考察的江苏省区域碳排放的影响因素和特征存在差异。第一、城市化率（即人口结构）对江苏省整体区域的碳排放作用是城市化率提高引起碳排放总量下降。但是在苏南和苏中地区，城市化率的提高则会引起碳排放总量的提高，只有在苏北地区，城市化率的提高才会引起碳排放总量的下降。第二、人均消费支出对于江苏省整体区域的碳排放作用是正面影响，即人均消费的支出会引起碳排放总量的提高。但是苏南地区的城镇人均消费支出增加，反而会引起碳排放总量的减少。最后，笔者对江苏省整体碳排放和经济发展水平做了对数EKC曲线的验证，进一步佐证了在之前STIRPAT模型中的结论之一：经济对碳排放具有促进作用，经济越发达，碳排放总量越多。在文章的结尾，通过对江苏省三大区域的碳排放清单核算和特征研究，笔者提出了江苏省碳减排的政策建议：第一、建立完整和互动的城市碳排放清单体系，及时把握碳排放现状。第二、明确城市发展战略，促进产业结构的健康升级。第三、发展绿色能源，优化能源结构。第四、提高全民节能意识，，引导消费结构的升级。
[Abstract]:Jiangsu Province, as the first GDP per capita in the country, is only next to Guangdong Province, which has a strong economy. The astonishing amount of carbon dioxide emissions hidden behind its developed economic level cannot be underestimated. In a 2007 report published by the Institute of Geography and Resources of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Jiangsu Province was listed as a relatively high carbon region, while Guangdong and Zhejiang provinces, where economic power was comparable, were low carbon regions. In addition, due to the unbalanced regional development in Jiangsu Province, the situation of carbon emissions in Jiangsu Province is especially complex, so it is urgent to carry out more concrete and accurate accounting and analysis of carbon emissions, and the urban carbon emission inventory provides a good reference for this purpose. The urban carbon emission inventory is developed from the national greenhouse gas emission inventory of Kyoto Protocol, which has been used in some typical big cities and urban areas at home and abroad. Therefore, based on the energy consumption data of 13 cities in Jiangsu Province from 2000 to 2011, the author compiled the carbon emission inventory for the three regions of Jiangsu Province, including Southern Jiangsu, Middle Jiangsu and Northern Jiangsu. Then, based on the content of urban and regional carbon inventory, the emission characteristics of different cities, especially different regions, are summarized. Using STIRPAT model and Eviews regression analysis of variable intercept and variable coefficient, the general trend characteristics of regional emissions and the individual structure differences of regional emissions are studied respectively. It is concluded that population size, population structure, income level, consumption level and technical factors are the main factors affecting regional carbon emissions. Moreover, the factors and characteristics of regional carbon emissions in Jiangsu Province are different from the overall and individual regional perspectives. Firstly, the effect of urbanization rate (population structure) on the total carbon emission of Jiangsu province is that the increase of urbanization rate leads to the decrease of total carbon emission. However, the increase of urbanization rate will lead to the increase of total carbon emissions in southern and central Jiangsu, and only in northern Jiangsu, the increase of urbanization rate will lead to the decrease of total carbon emissions. Second, the per capita consumption expenditure has a positive effect on the carbon emissions of the whole region of Jiangsu Province, that is, the per capita consumption expenditure will lead to the increase of the total amount of carbon emissions. However, the increase of per capita consumption expenditure in southern Jiangsu will lead to a decrease in total carbon emissions. Finally, the author verifies the logarithmic EKC curve of the whole carbon emission and economic development level of Jiangsu Province, which further supports one of the conclusions in the previous STIRPAT model: the economy has a promoting effect on carbon emissions, the more developed the economy, the more developed the economy is. The more total carbon emissions. At the end of the article, the author puts forward the policy suggestions of carbon emission reduction in Jiangsu province by studying the accounting and characteristics of carbon emission inventory in three regions of Jiangsu province: first, to establish a complete and interactive urban carbon inventory system. Timely grasp the status of carbon emissions. Second, clear urban development strategy to promote the healthy upgrading of industrial structure. Third, develop green energy and optimize energy structure. Fourth, improve the awareness of energy conservation among the whole people and guide the upgrading of consumption structure.
【学位授予单位】：南京航空航天大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：X321;F127

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