恭城国家可持续发展实验区可持续发展能力评价研究

发布时间：2018-04-26 06:02

本文选题：国家可持续发展实验区 + 可持续发展能力　；参考：《广西师范学院》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：可持续发展思想的产生是人类在社会发展过程中资源与环境问题胁迫的结果，其本质在于追求经济社会与生态环境的协调发展，核心内容是既满足当代人的需要而且不损害后代人的发展。国家可持续发展实验区（文中简称实验区）是中国在推进可持续发展过程中的一项创举，是全球在探索可持续发展道路中的重要实践和示范活动。生态足迹模型通过将人类的全部消费所占用的生态足迹与自己所拥有的生态容量相比较来反映人类活动对生态系统的压力。本文计算了2001——2012年恭城国家可持续发展实验区（文中简称恭城实验区）的人均生态承载力和人均生态足迹，分析了12年间恭城实验区人均生态足迹和人均生态承载力的变化趋势。发现恭城实验区每年可利用的人均生态承载力呈逐年微幅下降趋势，由2001年0.953265hm2/人降为2012年的0.845112hm2/人，总体上变化不大。而随着经济的发展和社会的进步，人均生态足迹需求量却呈上升状态，从2001年的1.461447hm2/人上升到2012年的2.225157hm2/人，12年间增长52.26%，年均增幅为3.90%。通过比较人均生态足迹和人均生态承载力的大小，发现恭城实验区2001—2012年间处于生态赤字状态，且人均生态赤字逐年增加，从2001年的0.508182hm2/人增加到2012年的1.380044hm2/人，增长了1.71倍。同时，本文引入万元GDP生态足迹、生态足迹多样性指数以及生态经济系统发展能力指标评价恭城实验区可持续发展能力，结果显示，随着年度的变化，万元GDP生态足迹逐年下降，生态足迹多样性指数变化不大，而生态经济系统发展能力却呈明显的上升趋势，说明恭城实验区资源利用效益逐年改善，可持续发展能力不断提高。为了弥补生态足迹模型生态偏向性的不足，本文还运用主成分分析法对恭城实验区2001—2012年可持续发展能力进行补充评价。结果显示，恭城实验区2001—2012年的可持续发展能力逐年上升，综合得分由2001年的-1.191482上升到2012年的1.843500，增长2.55倍。从历年各子系统综合得分分析，恭城实验区经济子系统和社会子系统综合得分总体上呈上升趋势，个别年份呈下降趋势，资源环境子系统综合得分呈持续上升状态，相对而言，科技子系统综合得分波动性较大，对恭城实验区可持续发展能力的影响较小。生态足迹模型具有生态偏向性，主成分分析方法则弥补了生态足迹模型对经济和社会条件考虑不周的缺陷。综合生态足迹模型和主成分分析法的评价结果，本文认为恭城实验区可持续发展能力逐年增强，但这是建立在资源消耗基础之上的较低水平向高水平发展的过渡阶段。未来要加强可持续性，提高可持续发展能力，需要调整产业结构，加大第三产业的发展；推进新型工业化建设步伐，构建节约型经济；建立比较完善的科技创新体系，提高科技转化能力；提高社会事业水平，确保恭城实验区长治久安。
[Abstract]:The idea of sustainable development is the result of the coercion of resources and environment in the process of social development, and its essence is to pursue the coordinated development of economic, social and ecological environment. The core content is to meet the needs of the present generation without harming the development of future generations. The National Experimental Zone for Sustainable Development is a pioneering work in the process of promoting sustainable development in China. It is an important practice and demonstration activity in exploring the road of sustainable development in the world. The ecological footprint model reflects the pressure of human activities on the ecosystem by comparing the ecological footprint occupied by all human consumption with the ecological capacity owned by human beings. In this paper, the ecological carrying capacity per capita and ecological footprint per capita of the national sustainable development experimental area of Gongcheng from 2001 to 2012 are calculated. The trends of ecological footprint per capita and ecological carrying capacity per capita in Gongcheng experimental area during the past 12 years were analyzed. It is found that the per capita ecological carrying capacity of Gongcheng experimental area is decreasing year by year, from the 0.953265hm2/ population in 2001 to the 0.845112hm2/ population in 2012, and the overall change is not significant. With the development of economy and the progress of society, the demand of ecological footprint per capita is on the rise, from 1.461447hm2/ in 2001 to 2.225157hm2/ in 2012, the average annual increase is 3.90%. By comparing the ecological footprint per capita and the ecological carrying capacity per capita, it is found that the ecological deficit in Gongcheng experimental area was in the state of ecological deficit from 2001 to 2012, and the per capita ecological deficit increased year by year, from the 0.508182hm2/ population in 2001 to the 1.380044hm2/ population in 2012, which increased by 1.71 times. At the same time, this paper introduces ten thousand yuan GDP ecological footprint, ecological footprint diversity index and eco-economic system development ability index to evaluate the sustainable development ability of Gongcheng experimental area. The results show that, with the annual change, The ecological footprint of GDP decreased year by year, the diversity index of ecological footprint did not change much, but the development ability of eco-economic system showed an obvious upward trend, indicating that the utilization benefit of resources in Gongcheng experimental area was improved year by year, and the ability of sustainable development was improved continuously. In order to make up for the ecological bias of ecological footprint model, this paper also uses principal component analysis to evaluate the ability of sustainable development in Gongcheng experimental area from 2001 to 2012. The results showed that the ability of sustainable development in Gongcheng experimental area increased year after year from 2001 to 2012, and the comprehensive score increased from -1.191482 in 2001 to 1.843500 in 2012, an increase of 2.55 times. From the comprehensive score analysis of each subsystem in the past years, the comprehensive scores of economic subsystem and social subsystem in Gongcheng experimental area showed an upward trend in general, a downward trend in individual years, and a continuous rising state in the comprehensive score of resource and environment subsystem, relatively speaking, The comprehensive score of science and technology subsystem is fluctuant and has little influence on the sustainable development ability of Gongcheng experimental area. The ecological footprint model has ecological bias, and the principal component analysis (PCA) method makes up for the inadequate consideration of the economic and social conditions in the ecological footprint model. Based on the evaluation results of ecological footprint model and principal component analysis, this paper considers that the ability of sustainable development in Gongcheng experimental area is increasing year by year, but this is the transition period from lower level to higher level based on resource consumption. In order to strengthen sustainability and improve the ability of sustainable development in the future, it is necessary to adjust the industrial structure and increase the development of the tertiary industry; to promote the pace of new industrialization construction, to build an economical economy; and to establish a relatively perfect scientific and technological innovation system. Improve the ability of science and technology transformation; improve the level of social undertakings to ensure the long-term stability of the experimental district of Gongcheng.
【学位授予单位】：广西师范学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F127;F205

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