产业政策决策如何迎面“深度不确定性”

发布时间：2018-04-26 09:23

本文选题：产业政策 + 决策模式　；参考：《探索与争鸣》2017年02期

【摘要】：确定性,本质上是产业政策弥补"市场失灵"的信息基础。而当前产业政策问题、政策目标和政策工具之间的不一致性,即产业创新条件下的信息不确定性,导致政策目标精准定位的先天困难。当产业发展的目标从赶超转向创新驱动,决策目标和前景具有巨大的不确定性。因此,在深度不确定性的条件下,需要重新梳理决策主体和政策过程模式。基于产业政策的由来、演变和逻辑的分析,特别是赶超型经济体和权威政府在实施产业政策时的信息条件,产业政策的决策模式可以分为四种类型:渐进调适型、理性设计型、市场协作型、国家战略型。不同的决策参与主体根据其拥有的信息优势,针对不同类型的产业政策进行决策,实行各自的问责方式。如此,转型期的产业政策决策才有可能形成制度化的良性改进,逐渐夯实市场和创新的制度性基础。
[Abstract]:Certainty, in essence, is the information basis of industrial policy to make up for "market failure". However, the inconsistency between policy objectives and policy tools, that is, the uncertainty of information under the condition of industrial innovation, leads to the inherent difficulties of precise positioning of policy objectives. When the goal of industrial development changes from catching up to driving innovation, the decision-making goal and prospect are uncertain. Therefore, under the condition of deep uncertainty, it is necessary to rearrange the decision-making body and policy process model. Based on the origin, evolution and logical analysis of industrial policy, especially the information condition of catch-up economy and authoritative government in implementing industrial policy, the decision mode of industrial policy can be divided into four types: gradual adjustment, rational design. Market cooperation type, national strategic type. According to their information advantages, different decision makers make decisions on different types of industrial policies and implement their own ways of accountability. In this way, the industrial policy decision in the transition period is likely to form a benign improvement of institutionalization and gradually consolidate the institutional basis of market and innovation.
【作者单位】：清华大学公共管理学院;清华大学产业发展与环境治理研究中心;
【基金】：自然科学基金面上项目“信息与自由裁量:我国公共决策机制的理想模式及重大基础设施项目决策研究”(71473144);自然科学基金重点项目“基于若干领域政策实践的中国公共决策模式及其现代化路径研究”(71233005)
【分类号】：F120

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