INDC背景下研发投资驱动的碳减排研究

发布时间：2018-04-26 08:19

本文选题：国家自主贡献 + 过程技术进步　；参考：《中国科技论坛》2017年05期

【摘要】：本文采用集成评估模型CIECIA,以提高研发投资、增加知识资本存量,进而驱动过程技术进步的方式实现了包括低碳节能技术进步在内的过程技术进步的内生化,通过设置不同的研发投资情景,模拟了研发投资率的提高对各国经济增长和碳排放的影响,对其实现国家自主贡献(INDC)目标和全球气候保护目标的有效性进行了评估。结果显示:中国、俄罗斯、印度和除美国、欧盟外的发达国家可通过提高研发投资率实现INDC目标,而占未来全球碳排放量50%以上的众多发展中国家无法通过提高自主技术创新速度实现INDC目标,进而导致研发投资情景无法实现全球2100年升温控制目标。但是,研发投资措施促进经济发展,从碳治理角度出发,可与经济损害型减排措施集成,提高碳减排政策的可行性。
[Abstract]:In this paper, the integrated evaluation model CIECIA is used to improve R & D investment, increase knowledge capital stock, and then realize the endogenous process technology progress, including low-carbon energy-saving technology progress, in the way of driving process technology progress. By setting up different R & D investment scenarios, the effects of increasing R & D investment rate on the economic growth and carbon emissions of each country are simulated, and its effectiveness in achieving the goal of national independent contribution (INDC) and global climate protection is evaluated. The results show that China, Russia, India and developed countries other than the United States and the European Union can achieve INDC targets by increasing R & D investment rates. However, many developing countries, which account for more than 50% of the global carbon emissions in the future, can not achieve the INDC target by improving the speed of independent technological innovation, which leads to the failure of R & D investment scenarios to achieve the global warming control target of 2100. However, R & D investment measures can promote economic development, from the perspective of carbon control, can be integrated with economic damage reduction measures to improve the feasibility of carbon emission reduction policy.
【作者单位】：华东师范大学人口研究所;中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所;华东师范大学地理信息科学教育部重点实验室;
【基金】：国家重大研究计划(973)项目“气候变化经济过程的复杂性机制、新型集成评估模型簇与政策模拟平台研发”(2012CB955800) 国家自然科学基金项目“全球经济一体化作用下中国应对气候变化的区域碳治理研究”(41501130)
【分类号】：F113.2;X32

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