基于偏离份额模型的武汉城市圈产业结构分析

发布时间：2018-04-26 17:01

本文选题：武汉城市圈 + 产业结构　；参考：《湖北省社会科学院》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：上个世纪70年代以来,我国经济发展迅速,经济活力逐渐增强,2010年我国国内生产总值初次超过日本成为仅次于美国的全球第二大经济体,2016年我国国内生产总值突破70万亿,其中,三次产业比例为8.56:39.81:51.63,呈现出三二一产业格局。结合人均GDP及城镇化率等数据看,我国已经步入工业化中期阶段。但随着人口老龄化问题加重、中等收入风险积聚等问题的凸显,我国经济增速放缓,经济增长进入新常态。面对日益分化的结构性经济,我国应积极转变发展思路,进一步优化供给侧机制,调整升级产业结构,促进经济稳定健康增长。近几年,随着中部崛起、打造长江经济带等国家级战略的推行,武汉城市圈经济发展迅速,产业结构得到进一步调整优化的同时,布局愈发合理。但在发展过程中,出现的一些问题,如产业附加值较低,产业内部结构性产能过剩等等,对武汉城市圈经济的协调有序发展产生了负面影响。本文以“基于偏离份额模型的武汉城市圈产业结构分析”为题,在文章结构上分为五章:第一章,导论。依次论述了本文的研究背景,选题意义,文献综述,研究思路以及研究发放,其中文献综述阐述了国内外目前关于城市圈及产业结构方面的研究现状和发展趋势。第二章,基本概念及理论基础。阐述了城市圈,产业结构的基本概念和相关分类,接着对本文相关理论基础,如经济增长理论,主要包括古典经济增长理论和现代经济增长理论等,产业结构演变理论,主要包括产业布局比较优势理论,区域产业布局理论和产业结构演变理论,偏离-份额模型,包括模型的建立、计算以及结果分析,进行详细论述。第三章,武汉城市圈产业结构发展现状。对武汉城市圈总体概况,及产业结构现状进行全面分析,总结武汉城市圈产业结构基础及发展特点,并进一步分析武汉城市圈内各城市产业结构现状和存在问题,为下文运用偏离-份额模型全面分析武汉城市圈产业结构变动情况做准备。第四章,武汉城市圈产业结构的偏离-份额法分析。首先运用收集的相关数据,使用偏离-份额模型对武汉城市圈内部9座城市三次产业结构进行分析,对其产业增速,产业结构对经济总量的贡献及其竞争力进行考量,然后对武汉城市圈整体产业结构进行分析,最后将湖北省产业结构回归结果与武汉城市圈做对比,并得出相关结论。第五章,最终结论与政策建议。通过本文分析,可知在结构性供给侧改革的背景下,武汉城市圈一二产业产业结构对经济总量增长的贡献逐渐降低,竞争力也明显减弱,第三产业在经济总量中所占比例则稳步提升,发展较快,总体而言,武汉城市圈产业结构仍有较大调整空间。对此,应着力优化武汉城市圈产业结构布局,发挥圈内各城市各产业比较优势,促进各城市间协同发展,最终促进武汉城市圈经济的发展。
[Abstract]:Since the 1970s, China's economy has developed rapidly and its economic vitality has gradually increased. In 2010, China's GDP surpassed Japan for the first time to become the second largest economy in the world after the United States. In 2016, China's GDP exceeded 70 trillion. Among them, the ratio of three industries is 8.56: 39.81: 51.63. Combined with per capita GDP and urbanization rate and other data, China has entered the middle stage of industrialization. However, with the aggravation of population aging and the accumulation of middle-income risks, China's economic growth rate has slowed and economic growth has entered a new normal. In the face of the increasingly divided structural economy, our country should actively change the thinking of development, further optimize the supply-side mechanism, adjust and upgrade the industrial structure, and promote the steady and healthy growth of the economy. In recent years, with the rise of the central region and the implementation of the national strategy of creating the Yangtze River economic belt, Wuhan City Circle has developed rapidly, the industrial structure has been further adjusted and optimized, and the layout has become more and more reasonable. However, in the process of development, some problems, such as low added value of industry, overcapacity of industrial structure and so on, have a negative impact on the coordinated and orderly development of Wuhan urban circle economy. Based on the analysis of the industrial structure of Wuhan urban circle based on the model of deviation share, this paper is divided into five chapters: chapter one, introduction. In turn, this paper discusses the research background, the significance of the topic, literature review, research ideas and research distribution, including the literature review of the current domestic and foreign on the urban area and industrial structure research status and development trend. The second chapter, the basic concept and theoretical basis. This paper expounds the basic concepts and related classification of urban circle and industrial structure, and then discusses the relevant theoretical basis of this paper, such as economic growth theory, including classical economic growth theory and modern economic growth theory, industrial structure evolution theory, etc. It mainly includes the theory of comparative advantage of industrial layout, the theory of regional industrial layout and the theory of evolution of industrial structure, the model of deviation-share, including the establishment of model, calculation and analysis of results, and discussed in detail. The third chapter, Wuhan city circle industrial structure development present situation. This paper makes a comprehensive analysis of the general situation of Wuhan urban circle and the present situation of industrial structure, summarizes the industrial structure foundation and development characteristics of Wuhan urban circle, and further analyzes the present situation and existing problems of the industrial structure of each city in Wuhan urban circle. In order to analyze the industrial structure change of Wuhan city circle by using the deviation-share model. Chapter four, the analysis of the industrial structure of Wuhan City Circle by the method of deviation-share. First of all, using the relevant data collected, using the deviation-share model to analyze the tertiary industrial structure of 9 cities in Wuhan urban circle, and to consider the industrial growth rate, the contribution of industrial structure to the total economic volume and its competitiveness. Then the whole industrial structure of Wuhan city circle is analyzed, and the result of industrial structure regression in Hubei province is compared with Wuhan city circle, and the relevant conclusions are drawn. Chapter V, the final conclusions and policy recommendations. Through the analysis of this paper, we know that under the background of the structural supply-side reform, the contribution of the industrial structure of Wuhan city circle to the total economic growth is gradually reduced, and the competitiveness is also obviously weakened. The proportion of tertiary industry in the total economic volume is rising steadily and developing rapidly. In general, the industrial structure of Wuhan City Circle still has great room for adjustment. In view of this, we should optimize the industrial structure layout of Wuhan urban circle, give play to the comparative advantage of each industry in each city of Wuhan, promote the coordinated development among cities, and finally promote the development of Wuhan urban circle economy.
【学位授予单位】：湖北省社会科学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F127

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