民间金融对辽宁省经济发展影响研究

发布时间：2018-04-26 20:05

本文选题：辽宁省 + 民间金融　；参考：《东北财经大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：作为金融体系的重要组成部分,民间金融与商业银行等正规金融机构既协同补充又相互竞争,服务范围、业务类型有所交叉又各有侧重,对于提高居民整体福利水平,推动经济增长特别是中小民营经济增长贡献了重要作用。但是民间金融于经济发展来说并不是只有良性的积极作用,因为相关法律不明确、不健全,处于监管体系之外等原因的存在,民间金融发展过程难免有一些消极的灰色效用：容易为不法分子所利用,冲击经济、社会的稳定发展,甚至可以说其对于经济的发展来说是一把双刃剑。随着民营经济的发展壮大,辽宁民间金融业已具备一定规模,但是当前辽宁民间金融还没有得到充分的认识和挖掘,那么本文希望从实证的角度出发量化辽宁民间金融分析,研究其对辽宁宏观经济的发展究竟会产生何种影响,究竟是推动还是阻滞,是积极的良性作用大还是消极的灰色作用大,并在此基础上针对如何促进民间金融阳光、健康发展,规范民间金融减少其负面冲击提供建议,为把握民间金融定位,明确把控方向提供一定参考。鉴于此,本文首先对辽宁民间金融的基本情况、现状特点以及发展原因进行了分析,认定辽宁民间金融是顺应市场趋势、满足市场经济主体强烈需求的理性选择的结果,也可以说是经济主体与政府管制进行博弈的均衡结果。在定性分析比较民间金融对辽宁经济可能的利弊方面基础上,进行本文的实证部分。通过采用间接估算法,笔者对辽宁省及各市民间金融情况进行了测算,结果显示辽宁民间金融整体上呈上涨趋势,但是相对于正规金融波动性更大。在具体的实证过程中,本文从整体和细化分析两个角度对民间金融与辽宁经济发展关系进行计量分析并得出以下结论：第一,民间金融与经济增长存在长期稳定的协整关系,民间金融的变动会引起GDP的同向变动且二者互为格兰杰因果关系；第二,民间金融与辽宁第二、第三产业均存在显著的正相关关系,说明民间金融能够在一定程度上促进产业规模扩大进而产业结构升级,第三,民间金融对第三产业的作用影响略大于第二产业,这可能是由于第三产业中小企业多融资需求旺盛造成的。最后本文得出民间金融对辽宁经济发展来说整体上良性效应大于消极影响,而且民间金融可能与正规金融长期共生并存,共同发展。进而,根据以上分析结果及辽宁实际情况,本文针对规范引导,有效利用民间金融促进经济发展提出相关政策建议。
[Abstract]:As an important part of the financial system, formal financial institutions, such as private finance and commercial banks, both complement and compete with each other. The scope of services, business types and types of business are intersected and focused on each other, in order to improve the overall welfare level of the residents. Promoting economic growth, especially small and medium-sized private economic growth has contributed an important role. But private finance is not only positive for economic development, because the relevant laws are unclear, imperfect, and outside the regulatory system. The development process of folk finance inevitably has some negative grey utility: it is easy to be used by lawbreakers, and it can be said to be a double-edged sword to the development of economy and the stable development of society. With the development of private economy, Liaoning folk finance has a certain scale, but at present Liaoning folk finance has not been fully understood and excavated. So this paper hopes to quantify Liaoning folk finance analysis from the perspective of empirical analysis. To study whether it will have any impact on the development of Liaoning's macro economy, whether it is to promote or block, whether it is a positive positive role or a negative grey role, and on this basis, in view of how to promote the private financial sunshine and develop healthily. Standardizing private finance to reduce its negative impact provides suggestions for grasping the position of folk finance and providing certain reference for controlling direction. In view of this, this paper first analyzes the basic situation, current characteristics and development reasons of Liaoning folk finance, and concludes that Liaoning folk finance is the result of rational choice that conforms to the market trend and meets the strong demand of the market economy main body. It can also be said to be the equilibrium result of the game between economic subject and government regulation. On the basis of qualitative analysis and comparison of the advantages and disadvantages of folk finance to Liaoning economy, the empirical part of this paper is carried out. By using indirect estimation method, the author calculates the situation of private finance in Liaoning province and other cities. The result shows that the private finance in Liaoning Province is on the whole rising trend, but the volatility is greater than that of formal finance. In the concrete demonstration process, this article carries on the econometric analysis to the non-government finance and the Liaoning economic development from the whole and the detailed analysis two angles, and draws the following conclusions: first, the folk finance and the economic growth have the long-term stable cointegration relation. The change of folk finance will cause the codirection change of GDP and the causality between them is Granger causality. Secondly, there is a significant positive correlation between folk finance and the second and third industries of Liaoning. It shows that private finance can to some extent promote the expansion of industrial scale and then upgrade the industrial structure. Third, the effect of private finance on the tertiary industry is slightly greater than that of the secondary industry. This may be due to the tertiary industry SMEs more financing demand caused by. Finally, this paper concludes that the overall positive effect of private finance on Liaoning economic development is greater than the negative effect, and private finance may coexist with formal finance for a long time and develop together. Then, according to the above analysis results and the actual situation in Liaoning Province, this paper puts forward some relevant policy suggestions on the guidance of norms and the effective use of private finance to promote economic development.
【学位授予单位】：东北财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F832.7;F127

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