现阶段中国固定资产投资率适度区间研究

发布时间：2018-05-01 19:01

本文选题：固定资产投资 + 投资率　；参考：《华南理工大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：改革开放以来，我国经济总体上保持了高速增长态势，这其中，固定资产投资作为经济增长的主要推动力，发挥了重要作用。但伴随着固定资产投资的快速增长，投资占比不断攀升，逐渐带来了投资效益下滑、通货膨胀高企、经济结构失调等一系列问题。基于这一情况，结合我国发展的阶段性特征和经济增长目标，构建一个适度的固定资产投资率区间，对于政府制定宏观经济调控政策具有重要意义。本文考虑固定资产投资作用效果的时滞性，首先运用计量学方法定量测算了固定资产投资与其效应两者之间的滞后关系。然后，基于两者滞后关系构建了相关模型测算固定资产投资率的适度区间。论文认为，适度的固定资产投资率应使经济系统保持增长态势的同时将通货膨胀率控制在可承受范围内，且保证一定的投资效益。具体来说，第一，固定资产投资率最低应该保证再生产的顺利进行，即从当年所创造的生产总值中拿出的固定资产投资比例至少能够维持不低于上一年的生产能力，使得整个经济系统呈增长态势；第二，随着固定资产投资率的不断提高，投资效益最终会逐渐降低，当低于某个警戒值时，固定资产投资的低回报率会增加金融系统的风险，因而固定资产投资率不能高于使投资效益低于上述警戒值的水平；第三，固定资产投资的过快增长会推高通货膨胀，因而固定资产投资的增长至少应保证将通货膨胀率控制在经济发展可承受范围内。通过相关分析，论文得出以下结论：固定资产投资对GDP的影响存在滞后性，滞后期大约为1年，基于此，现阶段我国固定资产投资率的适度区间为27.94%-45.30%，固定资产投资增长率不宜超过24.58%。相比于其它国家，我国固定资产投资率的适度区间明显偏高，，本文对结论做了相应的解释，同时就如何提高固定资产投资效益，最终逐步降低固定资产投资率提出了相关意见和建议。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's economy has maintained a rapid growth trend, in which fixed asset investment, as the main driving force of economic growth, has played an important role. However, with the rapid growth of fixed asset investment, the proportion of investment is rising, which brings a series of problems, such as the decline of investment efficiency, high inflation, economic structure imbalance and so on. Based on this situation, it is of great significance for the government to formulate macroeconomic control policies by constructing a moderate fixed asset investment rate interval in combination with the stage characteristics of China's development and the target of economic growth. In this paper, the lag relation between fixed asset investment and its effect is calculated quantitatively by means of metrology. Then, based on the lag relationship, the appropriate interval of fixed assets investment rate is established. The paper holds that the moderate investment rate of fixed assets should keep the economic system growing while keeping the inflation rate within the range of affordability and ensuring certain investment benefit. Specifically, first, the minimum investment rate in fixed assets should ensure the smooth progress of reproduction, that is, the proportion of fixed assets investment from the GDP created that year can at least be maintained at least as low as the production capacity of the previous year. It makes the whole economic system grow; second, with the rate of fixed assets investment increasing, the investment efficiency will eventually decrease gradually. When the value is lower than a certain warning value, the low return rate of fixed assets investment will increase the risk of the financial system. Therefore, the rate of investment in fixed assets cannot be higher than the level at which the investment returns are lower than the warning value mentioned above; third, the excessive growth of investment in fixed assets will push up inflation. Therefore, the growth of fixed asset investment should at least ensure that inflation rate is kept within the range of economic development. Through correlation analysis, the paper draws the following conclusions: fixed asset investment has a lag effect on GDP, the lag period is about one year, based on this, At present, the moderate range of fixed assets investment rate in China is 27.94-45.30. The growth rate of fixed assets investment should not exceed 24.58%. Compared with other countries, the moderate range of fixed asset investment rate in China is obviously higher. This paper makes a corresponding explanation to the conclusion, and at the same time, how to improve the investment efficiency of fixed assets. Finally, the investment rate of fixed assets is gradually reduced.
【学位授予单位】：华南理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F124

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