跨太平洋伙伴关系协定对亚太地区经济格局的影响研究

发布时间：2018-05-02 04:20

本文选题：TPP + 经济格局　；参考：《安徽财经大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：跨太平洋伙伴关系协定(TPP)的前身是2005由新加坡,文莱,智利和新西兰四国提出的跨太平洋战略经济伙伴关系协定(P4)。2009年美国高调宣布加入TPP,并提出要把TPP建造成包含所有APEC成员的高标准高规格的自贸协定。随后由于美国的加入并主导,TPP在国际社会引起高度关注,TPP的成员迅速扩大,目前共有10个成员国以及日本和加拿大两个正在参与谈判的国家。TPP的成员横跨整个亚太地区,它是美国“亚太再平衡”战略的重要一环,遏制中国在亚太地区的意图十分明显。亚太地区近二十年来经济发展迅猛,中国的崛起,亚洲四小龙,新兴经济体等为亚太地区的经济发展提供了强大的动力。亚太地区的经济发展关系着整个世界经济的走向和发展。亚太经济格局主要表现为中美两个大国之间经济相互抗衡与依赖的局面和正在迅速发展的区域经济组织竞争两个方面。本文在描述亚太经济格局中美两国的经济发展状况时,主要从GDP,对外直接投资,进出口贸易三大方面来进行比较。此外还主要介绍中美两国同亚太地区比较有影响力的经济体之间的经济关系的发展现状。在亚太地区区域经济组织的发展方面,主要介绍了比较有影响力的绝大部分由中国和美国两个国家参与的经济组织和自贸区,亚太经合组织(APEC),东盟,东盟-中国,中日韩自贸区,北美自贸区,10+6峰会。 TPP作为目前最具影响力的亚太地区的一个自贸协定,又由于世界第三大经济体日本已经加入谈判,因此TPP的进展会影响亚太地区现有的经济格局。本文利用如今广泛被应用到区域经济一体化研究的一般均衡模型的全球贸易模型GTAP对TPP将怎样影响相关亚太国家的经济进行实证分析。模拟了两种情形：(1)美国加入TPP；(2)日本和美国均加入TPP。模拟结果显示,加入TPP的成员国在福利和贸易条件方面均得到改善,而非TPP成员国的国家经济将遭受损失。对于我国来说,日本和美国均加入TPP对我国经济造成的负面影响更大,GDP将减少近27%,我国具有传统比较优势的如农业,纺织业等将受到很大冲击。现如今日本已加入TPP谈判,一旦谈判成功,它将极大影响中美两国在亚太地区经济和贸易市场,且会对其他相关的区域经济组织产生正面,负面和双重影响。因此,TPP将会影响亚太地区的现有经济格局。基于上述情况,我国应该提前做好各种预案,以积极的心态迎接TPP的挑战,不能硬碰硬,而应该快速推进自身的自贸区建设。
[Abstract]:The predecessor of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) was 2005 by Singapore, Brunei, In 2009, the United States announced its high profile entry into the TPP and proposed to build the TPP into a high standard free-trade agreement with all APEC members. As a result of the United States joining and leading the TPP, the rapid expansion of its membership in the international community has led to a total of 10 member States, as well as two negotiating countries, Japan and Canada, which are participating in the negotiations. The membership of the TPP spans the entire Asia-Pacific region. It is an important part of America's Asia-Pacific rebalancing strategy, and its intention to contain China in the Asia-Pacific region is obvious. The rapid economic development of the Asia-Pacific region in the past two decades, the rise of China, the four little dragons in Asia and the emerging economies have provided a strong impetus for economic development in the Asia-Pacific region. The economic development of the Asia-Pacific region is related to the trend and development of the whole world economy. The economic pattern in Asia and the Pacific is characterized by the economic competition and dependence between China and the United States and the competition between the rapidly developing regional economic organizations. This paper describes the economic development of China and the United States in the Asia-Pacific region, mainly from the three aspects of GDP, foreign direct investment and import and export trade. In addition, it mainly introduces the development of economic relations between China and the United States and the more influential economies in the Asia-Pacific region. In terms of the development of regional economic organizations in the Asia-Pacific region, they mainly introduced the most influential economic organizations and free trade zones in which China and the United States participate, APEC, ASEAN, and ASEAN-China. China, Japan and South Korea Free Trade Zone, North America Free Trade Zone 10 6 Summit. TPP is one of the most influential free trade agreements in the Asia-Pacific region, and because Japan, the world's third largest economy, has joined the negotiations, the progress of the TPP will affect the existing economic situation in the Asia-Pacific region. In this paper, the global trade model GTAP, which is widely used in the study of regional economic integration, is used to analyze how TPP will affect the economies of relevant Asia-Pacific countries. Two scenarios were simulated: 1) the United States joined TPP2) Japan and the United States joined TPP2. The simulation results show that the members that join the TPP have improved in terms of welfare and terms of trade, while the economies of the non-members of the TPP will suffer losses. For our country, both Japan and the United States will have a great negative impact on our economy after joining TPP. The traditional comparative advantage of our country, such as agriculture and textile industry, will be greatly affected. Now that Japan has joined the TPP negotiations, if successful, it will greatly affect the economic and trade markets of China and the United States in the Asia-Pacific region, and will have a positive, negative and dual impact on other relevant regional economic organizations. So the TPP will affect the existing economic landscape in the Asia-Pacific region. Based on the above situation, our country should make all kinds of plans in advance to meet the challenge of TPP with a positive attitude, and should push forward the construction of its own free trade zone quickly.
【学位授予单位】：安徽财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F114.46

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