安倍政府治理通货紧缩经济政策分析

发布时间：2018-05-04 01:35

本文选题：安倍经济学 + 通货紧缩　；参考：《延边大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：20世纪90年代的日本,资产泡沫破灭,经济长期处于通货紧缩状态,日本经济持续20多年低迷。期间虽出现缓解趋势,但在民间投资、国民消费、出口的增长和不良债权等问题上仍然得不到控制,尤其受2011年东日本大地震及海啸等自然灾害的影响,更加恶化通货紧缩形势,使日本经济复苏乏力。因此,如何治理通货紧缩成为日本经济发展的关键。安倍晋三上台以来,推出以“量化宽松货币政策,财政刺激计划,结构性改革”为内容的“安倍经济学”,旨在扭转日本通货紧缩的经济现状。由此,本文根据日本当前的经济形势,并在国内外对于日本通货紧缩问题的相关研究的基础上,阐述了安倍经济学的经济政策及取得的效果。就金融体系、产业情况、国际收支和国民经济生活方面出现的状况以及将要恶化的形势展开描述,总结出经过二十余年的奋斗与挣扎,日本经济“终于看到了一些光明的迹象”,但仍处于经济衰退的状况。文章选取了日元汇率、股市行情、消费者物价指数(即CPI)、国内生产总值(即GDP)及就业情况等指标,以2012-2013年经济数据为主要样本,分析了安倍政府的政策效果。结论显示至2013年末,安倍执政一年多以来,其推出的一系列激进的经济政策,在很大程度上缓解了日本的经济,也促进了日本企业的投资,在多方面出现了一些复苏的景象。具体表现在日元不断贬值,日经225不断攀升,消费者物价指数及国内生产总值都向有益趋势发展,并提供了大量就业岗位,降低失业率。虽然安倍经济学取得了以上的成绩,但是本文根据日本国情、执政党理念和政策实施后已经达到的预期效果分析得出：安倍政府取得这些成绩的同时也出现了负面效应,即安倍实施的政策皆在短期表现较强烈,而长期预估空洞,甚至会出现在消费税提升后,民间消费大幅度缩水的情况。同时结合日本执政党“短命”等因素,“安倍经济学”远期规划的实现让人堪忧。
[Abstract]:In the 1990s, Japan's asset bubble burst, the economy was in deflation for a long time, and Japan's economy continued to be depressed for more than 20 years. Although there has been a mitigation trend during the period, private investment, national consumption, export growth and non-performing claims are still out of control, especially affected by natural disasters such as the 2011 East Japan earthquake and tsunami. Further worsening the deflation situation, so that Japan's economic recovery is weak. Therefore, how to control deflation has become the key to Japanese economic development. Since taking office, Abe has introduced "Abenomics", with "quantitative easing, fiscal stimulus and structural reforms," aimed at reversing Japan's deflationary economy. Therefore, according to the current economic situation of Japan, and on the basis of domestic and foreign research on Japan's deflation, this paper expounds the economic policy of Abenomics and its effect. Describing the situation in the financial system, the industrial situation, the balance of payments and national economic life, as well as the situation that is about to deteriorate, and summing up the struggle and struggle that has been going on for more than 20 years. Japan's economy "has finally seen some bright signs" but is still in recession. This paper selects yen exchange rate, stock market, consumer price index (CPI), gross domestic product (GDP) and employment as the main sample, and analyzes the policy effect of Abe government based on 2012-2013 economic data. The conclusion shows that since Abe took office more than a year ago, the series of radical economic policies launched by Abe in late 2013 have largely eased Japan's economy and promoted Japanese enterprises' investment, and there have been some signs of recovery in many ways. This is reflected in the depreciation of the yen, the rising Nikkei 225, the positive trend in the consumer price index and gross domestic product, and the creation of a large number of jobs and a reduction in the unemployment rate. Although Abenomics has made the above achievements, according to the national conditions of Japan, the expected effect of the concept and policy of the ruling party has been analyzed. That is, Abe's policies are stronger in the short term, while long-term forecasts are empty, even after the rise in consumption tax, private consumption will shrink significantly. At the same time, combined with Japan's ruling party's "short life" and other factors, "Abenomics" long-term planning is worrying.
【学位授予单位】：延边大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F131.3

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