我国货币政策与产业结构的关系分析

发布时间：2018-05-03 23:32

本文选题：货币政策 + 产业结构　；参考：《山西财经大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：货币政策是一国宏观经济政策的重要组成部分。在我国，货币政策不仅对经济增长做出了巨大的贡献，而且对产业结构调整也显现出卓越的功效，尤其是“增加总量、调整结构”的货币信贷政策，对产业结构调整及重点行业的发展的影响有目共睹。然而，，近十多年来货币政策对我国产业结构及重点行业的影响的特征如何？有关问题的研究关系到货币政策实施效果、产业结构合理发展以及总体经济可持续性增长，是值得我们探讨的数量分析问题之一。本文在对中外有关货币政策与产业结构关系研究文献资料梳理的基础上，采用描述统计分析与现代计量经济学技术等方法，对我国近十多年来货币政策与产业结构尤其是重点行业之间的关系进行了实证分析。首先运用统计分析方法分析了我国产业结构、就业结构以及三大重点行业——建筑业、制造业、交通运输业的现状，然后回顾了货币政策的发展变化，系统地整理了货币政策对产业结构影响的理论框架，最后，运用协整模型研究了金融深化程度与总体产业结构之间的长期均衡关系，同时借助于生产函数模型，运用1996-2012年间我国31个省市区的面板数据研究了货币政策对重点行业（以建筑业为例）的影响，结论表明：固定资产投资对建筑业产出的影响为正弹性，进一步将面板数据划分为东、中、西三个区域，结果存在差异，说明我国货币政策的执行效果存在区域差异。最后，针对改善我国货币政策与产业结构以及产业内重点行业的关系以实现产业结构的优化升级，本文尝试提出了相应的政策建议。
[Abstract]:Monetary policy is an important part of a country's macroeconomic policy. In China, monetary policy has not only made a great contribution to economic growth, but also showed remarkable effects on the adjustment of industrial structure, especially the monetary and credit policy of "increasing the total amount and adjusting the structure". The impact on industrial restructuring and the development of key industries is obvious to all. However, what are the characteristics of the impact of monetary policy on China's industrial structure and key industries in the past decade? The research of the related problems is one of the quantitative analysis problems which is worth discussing. It is related to the effect of monetary policy, the rational development of industrial structure and the sustainable growth of the overall economy. On the basis of combing the literature on the relationship between monetary policy and industrial structure at home and abroad, this paper adopts descriptive statistical analysis and modern econometric techniques. The relationship between monetary policy and industrial structure, especially the key industries, is analyzed empirically in recent ten years. This paper first analyzes the present situation of China's industrial structure, employment structure and three key industries-construction, manufacturing and transportation by using statistical analysis method, and then reviews the development and changes of monetary policy. The theoretical framework of the influence of monetary policy on industrial structure is systematically arranged. Finally, the long-term equilibrium relationship between the degree of financial deepening and the overall industrial structure is studied by using the cointegration model, and at the same time, the production function model is used to study the relationship between the degree of financial deepening and the overall industrial structure. Using panel data of 31 provinces and municipalities in China from 1996 to 2012, this paper studies the influence of monetary policy on key industries (taking the construction industry as an example). The conclusion shows that the impact of fixed asset investment on construction output is positive elasticity. The panel data are further divided into three regions: east, middle and west. The results show that there are regional differences in the implementation effect of monetary policy in China. Finally, in order to improve the relationship between monetary policy and industrial structure and the key industries in industry in order to realize the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure, this paper tries to put forward the corresponding policy recommendations.
【学位授予单位】：山西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F822.0;F124

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