京津冀地区经济发展冷热点格局演化及其影响因素

发布时间：2018-05-04 03:11

本文选题：经济失衡 + 冷热点格局分析　；参考：《地理研究》2017年01期

【摘要】：为了探讨京津冀地区经济发展失衡,引入DMSP/OLS夜间灯光构建GDP指数,利用优化的热点分析和时空模式挖掘识别经济发展的格局演化,以SLM和SEM模型从自然环境、基础设施及区域开发等方面量化失衡因素。结果表明:1区域经济发展趋于波动性集聚,经济发展呈明显的京津市区、京津郊区和河北区县城区、河北偏远县乡等3种类型,而京津市区和郊区之间、京津市域和河北省域之间都存在显著的"虹吸效应"所诱发的发展断崖。2持续的热点、振荡的热点和振荡的冷点是经济发展冷热点的主要演化模式。经济发展热点自中心城区至远郊呈同心圆圈层式弱化,而无明显圈层变化的冷点集中连片地广布在河北乡村。3经济发展与自然环境、基础设施和区域开发有复杂非线性关系,经济发展繁荣地区(热点)多受惠于基础设施和区域开发及行政区划的整体优势,而合适的海拔条件次之。经济发展落后地区(冷点)总体受制于坡度条件和基础设施及区域开发的总体劣势。
[Abstract]:In order to discuss the imbalance of economic development in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, the GDP index was constructed by introducing DMSP/OLS light at night, and the pattern evolution of economic development was identified by optimizing hot spot analysis and space-time pattern mining, and the SLM and SEM models were used from the natural environment. Infrastructure and regional development and other aspects of quantitative imbalance factors. The results show that the regional economic development tends to be fluctuating and agglomeration, and the economic development shows three types: Beijing-Tianjin urban area, Beijing-Tianjin suburb and Hebei county district, Hebei remote county and township, and between Beijing-Tianjin urban area and suburban area. There is a significant "siphon effect" between Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei Province, which leads to the continuous hot spot of development scarp .2. The hot spot of oscillation and the cold point of oscillation are the main evolution mode of the cold and hot point of economic development. The hot spots of economic development from the central urban area to the outer suburb show a concentric circle of weakening, while the cold spot with no obvious changes of the circle layer is widely distributed in rural Hebei province. 3. The economic development has a complex nonlinear relationship with the natural environment, the infrastructure and the regional development. Economic development and prosperity areas (hot spots) mostly benefit from the overall advantages of infrastructure and regional development and administrative divisions, followed by suitable altitude conditions. The backward areas of economic development (cold point) are generally restricted by the slope conditions and the overall inferiority of infrastructure and regional development.
【作者单位】：北京大学政府管理学院;北京大学城市与环境学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(41671120,41371005)
【分类号】：F127

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