异质性预期、宏观经济波动与货币政策有效性——来自数量型和价格型工具的双重检验

发布时间：2018-05-04 03:35

本文选题：异质性预期 + 货币政策有效性　；参考：《国际金融研究》2017年09期

【摘要】：厘清公众不同形式预期对宏观经济波动的影响,对提高货币政策效率具有重要意义。本文通过构建新凯恩斯模型系统考察不同预期行为下经济冲击对宏观经济波动的影响,并据此讨论货币政策有效性。研究结果表明:无论央行偏好何种货币政策工具,异质性预期模型较理性预期更易放大总供给和总需求冲击造成的通胀、产出均衡偏离,并引致较大央行福利损失;价格型调控相比数量型调控能更有效降低宏观经济波动,但数量型调控仍在局部情形占优价格型调控。为此,本文认为央行应强化预期管理,通过提高政策透明度、完善信息披露等以增强公众理性预期程度,并在宏观调控时根据经济周期特征审慎遴选合意货币政策工具,以提高货币调控效率,更好引领新常态经济发展。
[Abstract]:It is of great significance to clarify the influence of different forms of public expectation on the macroeconomic fluctuation in order to improve the efficiency of monetary policy. By constructing a new Keynesian model, this paper systematically examines the impact of economic shocks on macroeconomic fluctuations under different expected behaviors, and discusses the effectiveness of monetary policy. The results show that, no matter what monetary policy tool the central bank prefers, the heterogeneous expectation model is more likely to amplify the inflation caused by the impact of aggregate supply and aggregate demand than the rational expectation, and the output equilibrium deviates, which leads to the loss of welfare of the larger central bank. Compared with quantitative regulation, price regulation can reduce macroeconomic fluctuation more effectively, but quantitative control still dominates local price regulation. Therefore, this paper holds that the central bank should strengthen the expected management, enhance the degree of public rational expectations by improving policy transparency and information disclosure, and prudently select desirable monetary policy tools according to the characteristics of the economic cycle in macroeconomic regulation and control. In order to improve the efficiency of monetary control, better guide the new normal economic development.
【作者单位】：南京大学经济学院;南京财经大学金融学院;
【基金】：国家社科基金重大项目“基于物价调控的我国最优财政货币政策体制研究”(项目编号:12&ZD064);国家社科基金一般项目“依托战略性新兴产业加快长三角转变经济发展方式问题研究”(项目编号:12BJL080) 江苏省社科基金后期资助项目“财政政策的宏观经济效应与新常态下财政工具选择研究”(项目编号:16HQ009) 江苏省高校哲学社会科学研究基金项目“多重国家重大战略叠加下江苏省城市金融发展战略的选择与重构”(项目编号:2017SJB0245)的资助
【分类号】：F124.8;F822.0

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