测算我国技术进步率及其经济增长贡献率的新方法

发布时间：2018-05-04 10:48

本文选题：技术进步 + 全要素生产率　；参考：《数量经济技术经济研究》2017年07期

【摘要】：研究目标:更准确地估算我国的技术进步率、TFP增长率及其对经济增长的贡献率。研究方法:以经济增长理论为基础,利用AMOS软件,构建以技术进步率和人均资本增长率为潜变量的多指标多原因结构方程模型(MIMIC Model)。利用MCMC贝叶斯法估计模型参数,最后用贝叶斯插补法估算两个潜变量。研究发现:利用新方法估算出的技术进步率更加合理,新方法也显示出了技术进步与其他经济变量之间更为明确的作用机制。研究创新:首次利用结构方程模型(SEM)估算中国技术进步率。研究价值:为SEM模型在经济领域中的应用提供了规范。
[Abstract]:Objective: to estimate more accurately the TFP growth rate and its contribution to economic growth in China. Methods: based on the theory of economic growth and using AMOS software, a multi-index and multi-reason structural equation model with technological progress rate and per capita capital growth rate as potential variables was constructed. The model parameters are estimated by MCMC Bayesian method and two latent variables are estimated by Bayesian interpolation method. It is found that the rate of technological progress estimated by the new method is more reasonable, and the new method also shows a clearer mechanism between technological progress and other economic variables. Research Innovation: for the first time, the structural equation model (SEM) is used to estimate the rate of technological progress in China. Research value: provides the standard for the application of SEM model in the economic field.
【作者单位】：北京交通大学经济管理学院;
【基金】：北京交通大学基本科研业务费“对我国宏观经济中不可观测变量的新研究”(B15JB00230)的资助
【分类号】：F124.3;F224.0

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