收入分布变迁对消费的影响分析

发布时间：2018-05-05 03:09

本文选题：收入分布 + 消费分布　；参考：《西北农林科技大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：本文基于CFPS 2010年、2012年和2014年的调查数据,首先概述了我国居民的收入分布形态、收入不平等程度和城乡收入分配差异状况。研究结果表明我国居民的收入分布存在“尖峰”和“右偏”特征,居民收入分配差距很大,农村居民的收入不平等程度要高于城镇居民,并且我国整体居民的收入不平等同时受城乡内部收入差距和城乡之间收入差距的影响。进一步,本文运用相对分布法详细分析了居民收入分布变迁状况和城乡收入分布差异,并运用相对极化指数研究我国居民收入极化的变化趋势以及城乡居民收入极化的差异情况。研究结果表明,经济增长促使我国收入水平较低的群体和中等收入群体向更高的收入水平流动,且经济增长对最高收入群体的影响更大,尤其是农村居民的最高收入群体,而收入分配对我国居民收入分布的影响则非常复杂,影响方向不定。居民收入两极分化逐年加剧,但加剧的程度有减弱趋势,其中城镇居民收入分布极化程度一直高于农村居民。其次,本文概述了我国居民的消费分布形态、消费分位数变化状况和城乡居民消费差距状况,研究结果表明我国居民消费分布同样具有“尖峰”、“右偏”的特点,且消费密度曲线随着年份的增加而逐渐平缓,城镇居民人均家庭消费水平明显高于农村居民,且城乡居民的消费差距很大。通过相对分布法,对居民消费分布变迁和城乡居民的消费分布差异进行分析,研究表明,城镇居民最低消费群体比重的下降程度要高于农村居民,而农村居民最高消费群体比重的增加幅度则显著大于城镇居民。居民人均家庭消费分布极化程度逐年加剧,其中城镇居民的消费分布极化程度都比相应年份的农村居民消费分布极化程度要高,LRP是导致我国城镇居民消费极化程度高于农村居民消费的主要原因,也就是与农村居民相比,有更多的城镇居民向较低的消费水平流动。最后,本文运用无条件分位数回归模型研究了收入对消费的影响,研究结果表明,当期人均家庭纯收入对人均家庭消费具有非常显著的正向影响,收入的回归系数随居民消费水平的提高而增加,且收入因素对城镇居民人均家庭消费的影响要大于农村居民。从2010年、2012年到2014年,城镇居民人均家庭纯收入对人均家庭消费的边际影响随时间的变动呈先下降后增加的趋势,农村居民人均家庭纯收入对最低消费群体(0.1分位点)人均家庭消费的边际影响随时间的变动趋势与城镇居民相同,但对其余消费群体人均家庭消费的边际影响则逐年递增。进一步,本文在无条件分位数回归模型的基础上,对消费分布进行时间维度的Oaxaca-Blinder分解,旨在分离出收入变动对消费变动的影响。实证结果显示,在禀赋效应分解中,收入因素的变动对不同年份的消费变动影响最大,并且收入变动带来的禀赋效应对城镇居民的影响高于农村居民,随着消费分位点的走高,该影响在城乡居民之间的差异也越来越大。
[Abstract]:Based on the survey data of CFPS in 2010, 2012 and 2014, this paper first summarizes the income distribution patterns, income inequality and income distribution differences between urban and rural residents in China. The results show that the income distribution of residents in China is characterized by "peak" and "right deviation", and the income distribution gap is very large, and the income of rural residents is very large. The inequality level is higher than the urban residents, and the income inequality of the whole residents in our country is influenced by the income gap between urban and rural areas and the income gap between urban and rural areas. Further, this paper uses relative distribution method to analyze the changes of income distribution and the distribution of income distribution in urban and rural areas, and to study China by using the relative polarization index. The change trend of residents' income polarization and the difference of income polarization between urban and rural residents. The results show that economic growth has promoted the flow of lower income groups and middle income groups to higher income levels in China, and the impact of economic growth on the highest income groups is greater, especially the highest income groups of rural residents, The income distribution has a very complicated influence on the distribution of residents' income in China. The polarization of residents' income is aggravated year by year, but the degree of intensification has a weakening trend. The polarization of urban residents' income distribution has been higher than that of rural residents. Secondly, the consumption distribution pattern and consumption quantile change of the residents in China are summarized in this paper. The research results show that the consumption distribution of the residents in China also has the characteristics of "peak", "right deviation", and the consumption density curve gradually slowly with the increase of the year. The per capita household consumption level of urban residents is obviously higher than that of rural residents, and the consumption gap between urban and rural residents is very large. The distribution method is used to analyze the distribution changes of residents' consumption and the difference of consumption distribution between urban and rural residents. The study shows that the decrease of the proportion of the lowest consumption groups of urban residents is higher than that of rural residents, while the increase in the proportion of the highest consumption groups of the rural residents is significantly greater than that of the urban residents. In the year, the polarization degree of urban residents' consumption distribution is higher than that of the rural residents in corresponding years. LRP is the main reason why the consumption polarization of urban residents is higher than that of rural residents, that is, more urban residents flow to lower consumption level compared with rural residents. This paper uses the unconditional quantile regression model to study the effect of income on consumption. The results show that the per capita net income has a very significant positive impact on the per capita household consumption, and the regression coefficient of income increases with the increase of the consumption level of the residents, and the influence of the income on the per capita household consumption of urban residents should be influenced. From 2010 to 2014, from 2012 to 2014, the marginal effect of per capita household income on per capita household consumption of urban residents decreased first and then increased with time, and the marginal effect of the per capita net income of rural residents on the per capita household consumption of the lowest consumption group (0.1 points) was changed with time and city The town residents are the same, but the marginal effect on the per capita household consumption of the other consumer groups is increasing year by year. Further, on the basis of the unconditional quantile regression model, the Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition of the time dimension of the consumption distribution is carried out to separate the influence of the income change on the consumption change. In the solution, the change of income factors has the greatest impact on the change of consumption in different years, and the influence of income change on urban residents is higher than that of rural residents. With the increase of consumption points, the difference between urban and rural residents is becoming more and more significant.

【学位授予单位】：西北农林科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F126;F224

【参考文献】