辽宁省产业结构变动对经济增长影响的实证分析
发布时间:2018-05-05 03:14
本文选题:辽宁产业结构 + 经济增长 ; 参考:《辽宁大学》2014年硕士论文
【摘要】:辽宁省作为东北老工业基地,是新中国工业的摇篮,建国以来,为国家做出了卓越的贡献。改革开放后,紧随国家国民经济发展的步伐,其生产总值有了很大提高,三次产业都得到了快速发展。经过60多年的历史,它的经济环境,产业结构发生了很大的变化,尤其是在激烈的竞争环境中,暴露了产业结构不合理,竞争力不强。许多专家学者对经济增长与产业结构进行实证分析,他们发现,两者关系密切。本文结合辽宁省产业结构和经济现状,通过对辽宁省产业结构变动与经济增长的实证分析,最后得出了三次产业的经济贡献率。这一结论为以后产业的政策制定提供了参考意见。 本文首先介绍了辽宁省产业结构,包括发展历程,产业结构变动过程、产业结构现状、产业结构存在的问题,让我们对辽宁省三次产业有了清晰的了解。根据相关理论得知经济增长和产业结构之间的关系密切,对辽宁省而言,两者如何相互影响,在第三章进行了实证分析。在这里采用了格兰杰因果检验,通过对辽宁省三次产业产值与GDP的分析,得出第二产业对经济的贡献率较大,产值每增加一个单位的产值对经济的影响较大,第三产业影响次之,第一产业作用最小。三大产业对经济的影响总体来说,结果表明一产的产值比重虽然很小,但是单位产值增加对经济增长的贡献却很大,第三产业则恰恰相反,第二产业的产值比重和单位产值增加的贡献度则比较相称。这就说明辽宁省的一产规模经济仍然十分明显,对经济增长的带动作用也很大。而第三产业虽然产值比重逐年增加,但是却没有形成一定的规模经济,第三产业的发展质量仍有待改进,,内部结构有待进一步深化调整。根据辽宁省产业结构存在的问题和实证分析得出的结论,在最后一章提出了针对性的改进措施。
[Abstract]:Liaoning Province, as an old industrial base in Northeast China, is the cradle of New China's industry, and has made outstanding contributions to the country since the founding of the people's Republic of China. After the reform and opening up, following the pace of national economic development, its GDP has been greatly improved, the three industries have been rapid development. After more than 60 years of history, its economic environment and industrial structure have undergone great changes, especially in the fierce competition environment, exposed the irrational industrial structure and weak competitiveness. Many experts and scholars on the economic growth and industrial structure empirical analysis, they found that the two are closely related. Based on the industrial structure and current economic situation of Liaoning Province, this paper analyzes the changes of industrial structure and economic growth in Liaoning Province, and finally obtains the economic contribution rate of three industries. This conclusion provides a reference for future industrial policy formulation. This paper first introduces the industrial structure of Liaoning Province, including the course of development, the changing process of industrial structure, the present situation of industrial structure and the problems of industrial structure, which makes us have a clear understanding of the three industries in Liaoning Province. According to the relevant theories, we know that the relationship between economic growth and industrial structure is close, for Liaoning Province, how the two influence each other, in the third chapter of the empirical analysis. The Granger causality test is adopted here. By analyzing the output value and GDP of three industries in Liaoning Province, it is concluded that the contribution rate of the secondary industry to the economy is large, and each unit of output value added to the output value has a greater impact on the economy. The influence of tertiary industry is the second, and the function of primary industry is the least. On the whole, the impact of the three major industries on the economy shows that although the proportion of the output value of one production is very small, the increase in unit output value contributes greatly to economic growth, while the third industry is quite the opposite. The proportion of the output value of the secondary industry and the contribution degree of the increase of the unit output value are more proportionate. This shows that Liaoning Province's one-industry economy of scale is still very obvious, the economic growth is also very big. Although the proportion of output value of tertiary industry has increased year by year, it has not formed a certain scale economy, the development quality of tertiary industry still needs to be improved, and the internal structure needs to be further adjusted. According to the problems existing in the industrial structure of Liaoning Province and the conclusion of the empirical analysis, this paper puts forward the corresponding improvement measures in the last chapter.
【学位授予单位】:辽宁大学
【学位级别】:硕士
【学位授予年份】:2014
【分类号】:F127
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