闽江流域改进能值生态足迹及其社会经济影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-05-10 13:31

本文选题：闽江流域 + 生态足迹　；参考：《福建农林大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：伴随生态文明建设的不断深入,福建省通过加强生态环境保护,加快经济发展转型全力推进生态省建设。闽江流域是福建省的重要经济区之一,在我省经济、社会、环境的可持续发展中有着举足轻重的地位。闽江流域生态经济系统可持续发展对促进我省构建生态文明先行示范区影响深远。随着人们对闽江流域的水资源、土地资源、能源资源等自然资源的不断开发利用,闽江流域的生态环境遭到不同程度的破坏,经济发展面临的挑战越发严峻。因此,对闽江流域生态足迹长时间序列的研究旨在追踪闽江流域可持续发展的动态变化,准确评价闽江流域的生态状况。找出闽江流域存在的生态环境发展缺陷,寻找生态文明建设发展对策。本研究基于传统的生态足迹理论与能值理论相结合的能值生态足迹,在传统的生物资源消费账户及能源消费账户的基础上,加入淡水资源账户、污染物消费账户对能值生态足迹进行改进完善。基于改进的能值生态足迹模型,计算动态分析闽江流域1990—2011年的生态足迹、生态承载力、生态赤字。同时,选取万元GDP生态足迹、生态足迹多样性指数、人均生态协调系数、生态承载缺陷度指标、生态压力指数、生态经济系统发展能力指数6类指标对闽江流域生态系统可持续发展状况进行了动态综合评估。并分析闽江流域经济增长、产业结构变动、居民消费结构变动和人口增长等因素对生态足迹的影响,通过脉冲响应函数、路径分析、灰色关联分析、回归分析方法逐个揭示各因素与生态足迹之间的关系。采用灰色预测理论方法,提出闽江流域生态足迹的灰色预测模型。最后,结合闽江流域生态、经济、社会现状,为闽江流域实现可持续发展提供相应对策和建议。研究结果表明： 1.闽江流域1990—2011年生态足迹总体上呈波动上升趋势。 2.闽江流域生态承载力在1990—2011年间处于波动变化,生态承载力峰值出现在2010年,最小值出现在2003年。 3.1990—2011年闽江流域生态足迹主要构成为耕地及水域。耕地生态足迹平均占比为40.58%,水域生态足迹平均占比为20.18%,能源用地、淡水资源用地、林地三类占比均在10%—15%之间,牧草地、湿地、建筑用地占比较小,均小于2%。 4.1990—2011年闽江流域均生态赤字现象,呈现波动增长趋势。值得注意的是,2011年和2003年总生态赤字较上年增长快速,增长率分别为89.00%和78.43%。 5.闽江流域22年间的万元GDP生态足迹持续走低,从1990年的33.37hm2/万元降至2011年的3.09hm2万元,降幅达90.74%,该变化趋势有利于闽江流域自然生态与社会经济系统的协调、可持续发展。 6.闽江流域生态足迹多样性整体呈先波动式上升后平稳变化趋势。可见,闽江流域对各类土地的开发利用总体向均衡趋势发展。 7.闽江流域的人均生态协调系数值偏小且整体呈减小趋势,特别是近几年其值均小于22年来的平均值。闽江流域人均生态承载缺陷度呈波动上升趋势,平均值为0.79,高于全国生态缺陷度平均水平,表明闽江流域的人均生态承载能力较弱,该地区在发展当地经济的同时给自然资源和生态环境带来了较大压力。 8.闽江流域生态压力指数上升趋势明显,平均值为5.39远远大于1。1990—2011年,研究区域的生态足迹持续保持较大值且呈波动上升趋势,增长速度快,而生态承载力变化不大,致使该区域的生态压力不断增加。 9.闽江流域生态经济系统发展能力呈上升势,近几年发展势头更强,2011年达4.11,远高于国家平均水平1.71,说明该区域的发展能力在我国处于较高水平。 10.2011年闽江流域各个区域均处于生态赤字状态,宁德市区域人均生态赤字为5.842hm2,为闽江流域各区域最小值；其次为泉州市区域人均生态赤字为7.654hm2。其余区域生态赤字相对较大,三明市区域为闽江流域人均生态赤字最大的地区,其值为22.456hm2；福州市区域人均生态赤字为15.402hm2；龙岩市区域人均生态赤字为14.948hm2。南平市区域人均生态赤字为12.706hm2；莆田市区域人均生态赤字为11.434hm2。 11.闽江流域与福建省人均生态足迹整体动态趋势接近,均处于波动上升变化。1997—2000年,闽江流域人均生态足迹均小于福建省人均生态足迹,平均差异为3hm2/cap；在1992、1995、1996、2001、2007及2010年闽江流域与福建省人均生态足迹相差不大,平均差异为0.3hm2/cap；而在其余年份,闽江流域人均生态承载力均比福建省人均生态足迹大,平均差异为0.68hm2/cap。 12.通过生态足迹与经济增长的互动分析结果表明,闽江流域生态足迹增加意味着资源消费的增加,依靠资源消耗在短期内对于经济增长有一定促进作用,但当经济增长到一定的程度,依靠资源的过度消耗是不能带来经济增长的,更有甚者会带来负面影响。在闽江流域的经济发展过程中,经济的不断发展意味着对于自然资源的过度开发利用,这一阶段的经济增长将导致生态足迹的增加,但从长期来看,经济发展对于生态足迹的影响有明显减弱的趋势。 13.第一、第二、第三产业增加值与生态足迹为显著正相关,这表明第一产业增加值变动是生态足迹变化的最主要影响因素,而第三产业直接影响为三产业中最小的。从分析结果可知闽江流域第三产业发展本身对生态足迹确实存在负作用。所以,不断优化产业结构,提高第三产业比重对控制生态足迹将会有明显效果。 14.城镇居民消费结构对闽江流域生态足迹的影响,除食品支出外,其他6项支出与生态足迹的总效益较为接近,其影响大小为：食品消费居住家庭设备用品及服务衣着医疗保健教育文化娱乐服务交通和通信。 15.闽江流域生态足迹与常住人口数之间存在较强的线性关系,当常住人口数增加1万人,闽江流域生态足迹增加52.3万公顷。最后综合上述研究结果,并结合研究区域实际情况就闽江流域土地利用率、人口数量、产业结构、居民消费观念等方面,提出了控制生态赤字,促进闽江流域生态与经济和谐发展的对策建议。
[Abstract]:Along with the continuous deepening of ecological civilization construction, Fujian province is one of the important economic zones in Fujian province by strengthening the ecological environment protection and accelerating the economic development transformation. The Minjiang basin is one of the important economic zones in Fujian province. The sustainable development of the economy, society and the environment in our province is of great importance. The sustainable ecological economic system of the Minjiang river basin is sustainable. Development has far-reaching impact on promoting the construction of ecological civilization leading demonstration areas in our province.
With the continuous development and utilization of natural resources, such as water resources, land resources, energy resources and other natural resources in the Minjiang basin, the ecological environment of the Minjiang basin has been destroyed to different degrees, and the challenges facing the economic development are more and more severe. Therefore, the study of the long term sequence of the ecological footprint of the Minjiang basin is aimed at tracking the sustainable development of the Minjiang River Basin. Dynamic changes, accurately assess the ecological status of the Minjiang River Basin, find out the development defects of the ecological environment in Minjiang basin, and find out the Countermeasures for the construction and development of ecological civilization.
Based on the traditional ecological footprint theory and the energy value theory, this study added the fresh water account on the basis of the traditional consumption account of biological resources and energy consumption account, and the consumption account of pollutants has improved the ecological footprint of the energy.
Based on the improved energy ecological footprint model, the dynamic analysis of ecological footprint, ecological carrying capacity and ecological deficit in Minjiang basin from 1990 to 2011 was calculated. At the same time, the ecological footprint, ecological footprint diversity index, ecological balance coefficient, ecological load deficiency index, ecological pressure index, ecological economic system development ability were selected. The 6 categories of indicators for the sustainable development of the sustainable development of the ecosystem in the Minjiang basin were comprehensively evaluated. The effects of factors such as the economic growth of the Minjiang basin, the changes of industrial structure, the change of the consumption structure and the population growth on the ecological footprint were analyzed, and the method of regression analysis was carried out by the impulse response function, the path analysis, the grey correlation analysis, and the regression analysis method. The relationship between the various factors and the ecological footprint is shown. The grey prediction model of the ecological footprint of the Minjiang basin is proposed by using the grey prediction theory. Finally, the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are provided for the sustainable development of the Minjiang river basin with the ecological, economic and social status of the Minjiang Basin. The results show that:
1. the ecological footprint of Minjiang basin from 1990 to 2011 showed an upward trend in general.
2. the ecological carrying capacity of Minjiang basin fluctuated from 1990 to 2011. The peak value of ecological carrying capacity appeared in 2010, and the minimum value appeared in 2003.
The ecological footprint of Minjiang River Basin from 3.1990 to 2011 is mainly composed of arable land and water area. The average proportion of ecological footprint of cultivated land is 40.58%, the average ratio of ecological footprint of water area is 20.18%. The proportion of energy land, fresh water resource land and forest land three types are 10% to 15%, and grassland, wetland and construction land are smaller than 2%..
The ecological deficit phenomenon in the Minjiang basin from 4.1990 to 2011 showed a trend of fluctuating growth. It is worth noting that the total ecological deficit in 2011 and 2003 increased rapidly in comparison with the previous year, and the growth rate was 89% and 78.43%., respectively.
5. the ecological footprint of the million yuan GDP in the Minjiang basin in 22 years continues to decline, from 33.37hm2/ million in 1990 to 3.09hm2 million in 2011, and the decline is 90.74%. The trend is conducive to the coordination of natural ecology and social and economic systems in the Minjiang basin and sustainable development.
6. the ecological footprint diversity of the Minjiang river basin is in a steady trend after the first fluctuation. It can be seen that the development and utilization of various types of land in the Minjiang basin is generally developing towards a balanced trend.
7. the per capita ecological coordination system in the Minjiang basin is small and the whole is decreasing, especially in the last few years, the average value of the ecological carrying capacity of the Minjiang basin is fluctuating, the average value is 0.79, which is higher than the average level of the national ecological deficit, which indicates that the per capita ecological carrying capacity of the Minjiang basin is weak, While developing the local economy, the region has brought great pressure to natural resources and ecological environment.
8. the rising trend of ecological pressure index in Minjiang basin is obvious, the average value is 5.39 far greater than 1.1990 - 2011. The ecological footprint of the study area continues to remain large and fluctuates, the growth rate is fast, and the ecological carrying capacity is not changed, which makes the ecological pressure of the region increasing.
9. the development ability of the ecological economic system in Minjiang river basin is rising, and the development momentum is stronger in recent years, reaching 4.11 in 2011, which is far higher than the national average level of 1.71, which indicates that the development ability of the region is at a high level in China.
In 10.2011 years, each region of the Minjiang river basin is in the state of ecological deficit. The regional per capita ecological deficit of Ningde is 5.842hm2, which is the smallest value in all regions of the Minjiang basin. Secondly, the ecological deficit of the regional per capita ecological deficit of Quanzhou is relatively large in the rest of the other regions of the 7.654hm2., and the Sanming City region is the region with the largest ecological deficit per capita in the Minjiang basin. Its value is 22.456hm2, and the regional per capita ecological deficit in Fuzhou is 15.402hm2, and the regional per capita ecological deficit of Longyan is 12.706hm2 in 14.948hm2. Nanping region, and the regional per capita ecological deficit of Putian is 11.434hm2.
11. the overall dynamic trend of the per capita ecological footprint of Minjiang River Basin and Fujian province is close, all in.1997 - 2000. The per capita ecological footprint of Minjiang basin is less than that of the per capita ecological footprint of Fujian Province, the average difference is 3hm2/cap. In 19921995199620012007 and in 2010, there is little difference between the per capita ecological footprint of Minjiang and Fujian province. The average difference is 0.3hm2/cap; in other years, the per capita ecological carrying capacity of Minjiang river basin is larger than that of Fujian Province, with an average difference of 0.68hm2/cap.
12. through the analysis of the interaction between ecological footprint and economic growth, the increase of ecological footprint in the Minjiang river basin indicates that the increase of ecological footprint means the increase of the consumption of resources, and the consumption of resources has a certain effect on the economic growth in the short term. However, the excessive consumption of resources can not bring economic growth to a certain extent. In the process of economic development in the Minjiang basin, the continuous development of the economy means the overexploitation and utilization of natural resources. The economic growth of this stage will lead to the increase of ecological footprint, but in the long run, the influence of economic development on the ecological footprint is obviously weakened.
13. the first, second, third industry added value is positively correlated with the ecological footprint, which indicates that the change of the added value of the first industry is the most important factor of the change of the ecological footprint, while the direct influence of the third industry is the smallest in the three industry. From the analysis results, the development of the third industry in the Minjiang basin itself does have a negative effect on the ecological footprint. Therefore, constantly optimizing the industrial structure and increasing the proportion of the third industries will have obvious effect on controlling the ecological footprint.
14. the effects of urban residents' consumption structure on the ecological footprint of Minjiang River Basin, except for food expenditure, the total benefits of other 6 expenditures and ecological footprint are close, the size of which is: food consumption, household equipment and services, medical care, health education, cultural and entertainment services, transportation and communication.
15. there is a strong linear relationship between the ecological footprint and the number of resident population in the Minjiang basin. When the number of permanent population increases by 10 thousand people, the ecological footprint of the Minjiang river basin is increased by 523 thousand hectares.
Finally, combining the results of the above research, and combining with the actual situation of the region, the paper puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions to control the ecological deficit and promote the harmonious development of the ecological and economic development of the Minjiang basin on the land utilization rate, population quantity, industrial structure and the consumption concept of the residents in the Minjiang basin.

【学位授予单位】：福建农林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F127;X22

【参考文献】