中国分行业碳生产率的动态变迁及影响因素分析

发布时间：2018-05-11 07:13

本文选题：碳生产率 + 脱钩分析　；参考：《湖南大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：未来国际间的竞争将是碳生产率的竞争，节能减排成为重要生产力，将提高能效和碳生产率作为促进经济增长的重点，对推动我国经济低碳化渐进转型和实现相对减排具有重要意义。本文首先基于投入产出模型对中国三大产业各细分行业2002-2012年的完全碳排放量及碳生产率进行测算和分析；然后通过脱钩分析和收敛性检验，从动态上探讨各行业经济发展和能耗排放间的关系；最后利用因素分解法分析碳生产率的影响因素，并进一步构建STIRPAT计量模型进行实证分析，，从而量化各影响因素的作用效应。结果表明：（1）我国总体及各行业碳排放量在2002-2012年间呈上升趋势，工业仍是未来的减排主力。碳生产率总体水平不断提高，随经济形势、政府调控的变化而波动，第三产业各行业总体来说拥有更高的碳生产率水平；（2）行业脱钩指数基本呈现出弱脱钩—增长连结交替出现的发展特征，第三产业各行业脱钩水平总体优于其他行业。未来我国各行业仍将保持一段时间的弱脱钩发展态势，即碳生产率将保持持续增长；（3）收敛性检验结果表明我国行业整体和低效率行业间存在绝对收敛，高效率行业间则不存在。但从整体发展趋势上看，行业碳生产率水平表现为趋同，碳生产率指数最终将成为一个标准化的指标；（4）碳生产率影响因素分解结果显示，经济效率、能源系统效率因素对碳生产率的提高产生正向作用，能源结构因素的贡献效应则存在一定波动，总体上产生负面抑制影响；（5）STIRPAT模型估计结果表明，就业人数增长、人均财富增加、技术进步以及产业结构演进与碳生产率提高正相关，而现行的能源结构则产生负面影响。产业结构因素对碳生产率的作用最大，其次是技术水平和能源结构因素。在经济持续增长的情况下，优化产业结构、改进技术工艺和调整能源组合是提高碳生产率的重要手段。
[Abstract]:In the future, the international competition will be the competition of carbon productivity, energy saving and emission reduction will become important productivity, the improvement of energy efficiency and carbon productivity will be the key to promote economic growth. It is of great significance to promote the gradual transition of China's economy to low carbonization and to realize relative emission reduction. Based on the input-output model, this paper first measures and analyzes the total carbon emissions and carbon productivity of the three subdivided industries in China from 2002 to 2012, and then through decoupling analysis and convergence test, The relationship between economic development and energy consumption emission in various industries is discussed dynamically. Finally, the factors affecting carbon productivity are analyzed by factor decomposition method, and the STIRPAT econometric model is further constructed to quantify the effect of each influencing factor. The results show that the carbon emissions of China as a whole and its industries are on the rise from 2002 to 2012, and industry is still the main emission reduction in the future. The overall level of carbon productivity continues to improve, fluctuating with the economic situation and changes in government regulation and control, On the whole, the tertiary industry has a higher carbon productivity level. (2) the decoupling index of the tertiary industry shows the development characteristics of weak decoupling and growth linkage alternately, and the decoupling level of the tertiary industry is generally superior to that of other industries. In the future, the development trend of weak decoupling will be maintained for a period of time, that is, carbon productivity will maintain a sustained growth) convergence test results show that there is absolute convergence between China's industry as a whole and inefficient industries, but there is no such convergence among high efficiency industries. But from the overall development trend, the industry carbon productivity level shows convergence, carbon productivity index will eventually become a standardized indicator of carbon productivity factors decomposition results show that economic efficiency, Energy system efficiency factors have a positive effect on carbon productivity, while the contribution of energy structure factors fluctuate to a certain extent. The estimation results of the model show that the employment increases and the per capita wealth increases. Technological progress and the evolution of industrial structure are positively related to the increase of carbon productivity, while the current energy structure has a negative impact. Industrial structure factors play the most important role in carbon productivity, followed by technological level and energy structure. In the case of sustained economic growth, optimizing industrial structure, improving technology and adjusting energy mix are important means to improve carbon productivity.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F124.5

【参考文献】