雾霾污染的治理意愿及其经济效应研究

发布时间：2018-05-12 11:33

本文选题：雾霾治理 + SIS算法　；参考：《南京信息工程大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：改革开放以来,中国经济迅速发展,人民生活水平显著提高。作为90年代一种少见的自然现象—雾霾,越来越成为危害公众的气候要素,雾霾污染成为人们关注的重点。本文的主要研究内容和结论如下:第一章介绍雾霾污染的研究背景和研究现状,主要对雾霾治理和雾霾经济的研究现状进行阐述,并给出本文研究内容和技术路线图。第二章利用时间序列方法分析南京雾霾现状,对2014-2016年南京雾霾PM2.5月平均浓度数据进行拟合与预测。结果表明采用ARMA(2,2)模型对2014-2016年南京雾霾PM2.5月平均浓度数据拟合效果较好,且预测出2017年1、2月南京雾霾PM2.5浓度分别为61.5、59.7,与真实浓度59.0、55.6几乎一致。第三章采用探索性因子分析提取公因子,再根据结构方程找出公因子间的雾霾治理意愿最优模型。结果表明雾霾治理意愿受雾霾风险感知、雾霾感知质量、雾霾感知措施和雾霾经济支出的影响,雾霾感知措施和雾霾风险感知的综合影响效应较大;虽然雾霾经济支出的综合效应值较小,这是由于公众更希望政府采取措施治理雾霾所造成的。此外,雾霾风险感知是所有潜在变量的基础,雾霾越严重,雾霾的经济支出、感知质量、感知措施和治理意愿都会增加。最后,算出我国公众雾霾治理意愿指数值为82.31,治理意愿较为强烈。第四章以江苏为例,引入大数据处理方法—SIS算法处理二分式问卷数据,有效筛选雾霾支付意愿的影响因子,结合条件价值法,估算出雾霾治理效益,并与基于Spike模型的平均值估计法相比较。根据二分Logistic回归模型,得到雾霾治理支付意愿与政府采取措施治理雾霾必要性、公众采取措施治理雾霾必要性有关。采用CVM估算出的江苏雾霾治理效益为173.13亿元,而基于Spike模型的平均值估计法得到的江苏雾霾治理效益为95.32亿元。因为后者的模型假设太过理想化,因此江苏雾霾治理效益利用CVM更为准确,这就意味着要使江苏雾霾情况得以缓解,至少需要投入173.13亿元。第五章在Romer模型的基础上,构建雾霾经济效应内生经济增长模型,并用我国内地31个省、自治区、直辖市2011—2015年的面板数据对模型进行拟合。结果表明雾霾经济效应与人力资本存量、劳动投入量与物质资本存量均呈现正相关关系,其中物质资本存量对经济增长的推动作用最显著。雾霾经济效应与雾霾污染损害和压力呈正相关关系,说明我国经济的快速发展,是以牺牲空气环境为代价,且不符合环境库兹涅茨曲线。雾霾治理离不开技术水平的支持与污染管控,只有提高技术创新水平,减少能源消耗,增加政府管控,加大雾霾治理费用与力度,才能解决我国雾霾污染问题。第六章根据研究结果从健全法律法规体系,建立环境监督联动机制,优化产业布局、调整能源结构和加强环保科技创新四个方面提供政策建议,并提出对本研究的展望。
[Abstract]:Since reform and opening up, China's economy has developed rapidly and the people's living standards have improved significantly. As a rare natural phenomenon in the 1990s, haze has become an increasingly harmful element of climate, and haze pollution has become the focus of attention. The main contents and conclusions of this paper are as follows: the first chapter introduces the research background and status quo of haze pollution, mainly describes the research status of haze governance and haze economy, and gives the research content and technical roadmap. In chapter 2, the present situation of Nanjing haze is analyzed by time series method, and the monthly average concentration data of Nanjing haze PM2.5 from 2014-2016 are fitted and forecasted. The results show that the ARMA-2X) model is effective in fitting the monthly average concentration of Nanjing haze PM2.5 from 2014 to 2016, and the predicted concentration of Nanjing haze PM2.5 in January and February 2017 is 61.5 ~ 59.7, which is almost in agreement with the true concentration of 59.0 ~ 55.6. In the third chapter, we use exploratory factor analysis to extract common factors, and then find out the optimal model of haze governance will among common factors according to the structural equation. The results show that haze governance willingness is affected by haze risk perception, haze perception quality, haze perception measures and haze economic expenditure, and haze perception measures and haze risk perception have a greater impact on the overall effect. Although the combined effect of haze spending is small, this is due to the public's preference for the government to take steps to manage the haze. In addition, haze risk perception is the basis of all potential variables. The more serious haze is, the more haze will increase the economic expenditure, perceived quality, perceived measures and governance willingness of haze. Finally, the author calculates that the public haze governance will index is 82.31, and the governance will is stronger. The fourth chapter takes Jiangsu province as an example, introduces the big data processing method -SIS algorithm to deal with the dichotomous questionnaire data, effectively selects the influence factor of haze's willingness to pay, and estimates the benefit of haze governance by combining the conditional value method. And compared with the average estimation method based on Spike model. According to the binary Logistic regression model, it is found that the willingness to pay for the governance of haze is related to the necessity of the government to take measures to govern haze and the necessity of the public to take measures to govern haze. The governance benefit of Jiangsu haze estimated by CVM is 17.313 billion yuan, while that of Jiangsu haze based on Spike model is 9.532 billion yuan. Because the model assumption of the latter is too idealized, it is more accurate to utilize CVM for the benefit of haze governance in Jiangsu Province, which means that at least 17.313 billion yuan is needed to ease the situation of haze in Jiangsu Province. In chapter 5, based on the Romer model, we construct the endogenous economic growth model of haze and fit the model with the panel data of 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government from 2011 to 2015. The results show that there is a positive correlation between the economic effect of haze and the stock of human capital, the amount of labor involvement and the stock of physical capital, among which the material capital stock has the most significant effect on promoting economic growth. The positive correlation between haze economic effect and haze pollution damage and pressure shows that the rapid economic development of our country is at the expense of air environment and does not accord with the environmental Kuznets curve. Haze management can not be separated from the support of technical level and pollution control. Only by improving the level of technological innovation, reducing energy consumption, increasing government control, and increasing the cost and intensity of haze treatment, can we solve the problem of haze pollution in China. The sixth chapter provides policy suggestions from four aspects: perfecting the system of laws and regulations, establishing the linkage mechanism of environmental supervision, optimizing the industrial layout, adjusting the energy structure and strengthening the scientific and technological innovation of environmental protection, and puts forward the prospect of this study.
【学位授予单位】：南京信息工程大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F124;X513

【参考文献】