我国城镇居民消费结构统计特征与影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-05-13 04:06

本文选题：消费结构 + 聚类分析　；参考：《湖南科技大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：居民消费结构不仅反映地区居民消费偏好程度以及对居民收入、消费品价格等因素的敏感程度,而且能反映地区居民生活质量与区域经济发展水平。因此,研究我国消费结构特征及其影响因素,具有重大理论和现实意义。本文首先运用时间序列分析方法,分析了我国消费结构变迁的变化趋势;并基于聚类分析方法原理,通过构建类之间最小距离关于分类数的函数关系,以函数曲线在分类数点的曲线斜率变化特征创新分类数的确定方法,对2015年我国31个省、直辖市、自治区的城镇居民消费结构差异化特征进行研究。然后借用产业结构高度化概念模型的思想,构建消费结构高度化测度模型,分析了我国消费结构的高度化特征。同时,根据消费结构合理化评价标准分析了我国城镇居民消费结构的合理化特征。最后基于我国消费结构动态面板数据,运用GMM方法分析了我国消费结构的影响因素。研究结果表明:我国城镇居民消费结构还存在较大差异,将近三分之二属于中西部地区的省份消费水平在全国平均水平以下。我国消费结构高度化正处于第三和第四层次的发展阶段,正逐步向最高阶段发展,但居民消费结构还有很大的上升空间。从生理合理化角度,我国居民消费结构比较合理,从经济合理化角度逐渐从不合理向合理化发展,但从社会合理化角度,我国城镇居民消费结构还存在不合理的现象。实证结果发现,我国城镇居民消费结构受消费习惯的影响较大,食品支出占比、衣着支出占比以及交通与通信支出占比与居民可支配收入有着比较显著的负影响,而居民可支配收入对文教娱乐支出占比具有显著的正向影响,说明我国城镇居民在收入不断提高的情况下更加追求高品质的生活,享受型和发展型资料消费的比重逐渐增加。基于以上研究结论,本文认为我国消费结构的优化,要从三个主要方面入手:一是进一步促进中西部地区经济的发展,增加中西部地区居民人均可支配收入,改善区域的消费结构,实现各地区均衡发展;二是由于我国城镇居民消费结构受消费习惯的影响较大,应该在增加居民可支配收入的同时,进一步完善我国的社会保障机制,解决居民消费的后顾之忧,引导居民逐步形成比较合理的消费观念,逐步改变不合理的消费习惯;三是构建积极向上、乐于奉献的价值观体系,引导广大居民追求更高的价值观,促进向发展型消费结构的升级。
[Abstract]:The consumption structure of residents not only reflects the degree of local residents' consumption preference and sensitivity to residents' income and consumer price, but also reflects the quality of life of local residents and the level of regional economic development. Therefore, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the characteristics of consumption structure and its influencing factors. In this paper, we first use the time series analysis method to analyze the changing trend of consumption structure in China, and based on the principle of cluster analysis, we construct the functional relationship of the minimum distance between classes on the number of categories. With the method of determining the curve slope change characteristics of function curve at the classification point, the paper studies the difference characteristics of urban residents' consumption structure in 2015 in 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions in China. Then, by using the idea of the concept model of industrial structure elevation, the paper constructs a high scale measure model of consumption structure, and analyzes the characteristics of high scale consumption structure in China. At the same time, according to the rational evaluation standard of consumption structure, the rational characteristics of consumption structure of urban residents in China are analyzed. Finally, based on the dynamic panel data of China's consumption structure, this paper analyzes the influencing factors of China's consumption structure by using GMM method. The results show that there are still great differences in the consumption structure of urban residents in China, and the consumption level of nearly 2/3 provinces belonging to the central and western regions is below the national average. China's consumption structure is in the third and fourth levels of development stage, is gradually developing to the highest stage, but there is still a lot of room for improvement of the consumption structure of the residents. From the point of view of physiological rationalization, the consumption structure of Chinese residents is more reasonable, and from the point of view of economic rationalization, it gradually develops from unreasonable to rational, but from the point of view of social rationalization, there is still unreasonable phenomenon in the consumption structure of urban residents in our country. The empirical results show that the consumption structure of urban residents in China is greatly affected by their consumption habits. The proportion of food expenditure, clothing expenditure and transportation and communication expenditure have a significant negative impact on the disposable income of residents. However, the disposable income has a significant positive impact on the expenditure of cultural and educational entertainment, indicating that the urban residents in our country are pursuing higher quality of life under the condition of rising income, and the proportion of material consumption of enjoyment type and development type is gradually increasing. Based on the above conclusions, this paper thinks that the optimization of consumption structure of our country should start from three main aspects: first, to further promote the economic development of the central and western regions, and to increase the per capita disposable income of the residents in the central and western regions. To improve the regional consumption structure and achieve balanced development in various regions; second, because the consumption structure of urban residents in China is greatly affected by their consumption habits, we should further improve our social security mechanism while increasing the disposable income of the residents. To solve the worries of residents' consumption, guide the residents to form a more reasonable consumption concept, and gradually change unreasonable consumption habits; third, build a positive and positive value system, which is willing to give, Guide the general population to pursue higher values and promote the upgrading of the development-oriented consumption structure.
【学位授予单位】：湖南科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F126.1

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