北京市房地产业对经济增长贡献度的研究

发布时间：2018-05-15 05:17

本文选题：房地产业 + 经济增长　；参考：《首都经济贸易大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：本文在总结已有相关文献的前提下，以产业关联理论、投入产出理论、主导产业理论为基础，主要通过两部分来具体分析北京市房地产业对经济增长的贡献：即北京市房地产业对经济增长的直接贡献和间接贡献。通过增长值测算法计算北京市房地产业对经济增长的直接贡献率；利用投入产出模型，通过各产业对经济增长的直接贡献率对房地产业与各产业之间的带动效应进行修正，计算北京市房地产业对经济增长的间接贡献率。最终，得出在2001-2011年间，北京市房地产业对北京市地区生产总值的总贡献率为30.29%。同时，通过计量经济学工具，分析北京市房地产业与经济增长之间的相互影响作用关系。通过实证并分析，可以清楚地理解北京市房地产业本身与经济总量之间的关系以及房地产业通过对相关产业的影响与经济增长之间的内部结构关系。本文认为，，北京市房地产业与经济增长之间存在着一个长期的均衡关系，且房地产业不仅对经济增长有着直接的贡献，并且通过前向关联效应和后向关联效应，对经济增长有间接贡献，且间接贡献率要大于直接贡献率。根据主导产业理论，本文认为北京市房地产业的发展符合罗斯托基准，可以作为北京市经济增长的主导产业。并在最后就房地产业作为经济的重要增长点，发挥其优化产业结构的作用，提出房地产业与经济长期协调发展的建议。
[Abstract]:On the premise of summarizing the relevant literature, this paper bases on the theory of industrial relevance, input-output theory and leading industry theory. This paper mainly analyzes the contribution of Beijing real estate industry to economic growth through two parts: the direct contribution and indirect contribution of Beijing real estate industry to economic growth. The direct contribution rate of real estate industry to economic growth in Beijing is calculated by measuring the growth value, and the direct contribution rate of each industry to economic growth is modified by the input-output model. Calculate the indirect contribution rate of real estate industry to economic growth in Beijing. Finally, from 2001 to 2011, the total contribution rate of Beijing real estate to Beijing's GDP is 30.29%. At the same time, through econometric tools, this paper analyzes the interaction between real estate industry and economic growth in Beijing. Through empirical analysis, we can clearly understand the relationship between the real estate industry itself and the total economic volume in Beijing, and the internal structure relationship between the real estate industry and the economic growth through the influence on the related industries. This paper holds that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between real estate industry and economic growth in Beijing, and the real estate industry not only contributes directly to economic growth, but also through forward and backward correlation effects. There is indirect contribution to economic growth, and the indirect contribution rate is larger than the direct contribution rate. According to the theory of leading industry, this paper holds that the development of real estate industry in Beijing accords with the Rostow benchmark and can be regarded as the leading industry of Beijing's economic growth. Finally, as an important growth point of the economy, the paper puts forward some suggestions for the long-term coordinated development of the real estate industry and the economy in order to optimize the industrial structure.
【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23;F124.1

【引证文献】