人口抚养比与经常账户平衡:主要发达国家的经验及对中国的启示

发布时间：2018-05-19 11:11

本文选题：人口抚养比 + 经常账户平衡　；参考：《投资研究》2016年11期

【摘要】：人口抚养比与经常账户余额之间呈现负相关的结论在已有研究中取得了一定共识。本文通过对主要发达国家1980年至2014年间人口抚养比与经常账户余额之间的面板数据检验分析,发现人口抚养比每上升1%,将会显著降低经常账户余额占GDP的比率约1.1%。分开来看,老年抚养比变化对经常账户的影响不显著,而少儿抚养比变化的影响显著为负,且其影响程度约为总抚养比的2倍。由于2012年之后劳动年龄人口比率下降和老龄人口比率的上升,至少未来十五年内中国的人口抚养负担将会持续加重,经常账户余额将会向着顺差减少乃至逆差扩大的方向变化。政府当局的对策可以包括提高劳动参与率和劳动生产率、完善贸易结构、改善金融体系运营效率和提高对外投资收益等。
[Abstract]:The conclusion that there is a negative correlation between population dependency ratio and current account balance has reached a consensus. By analyzing the panel data between population dependency ratio and current account balance in major developed countries from 1980 to 2014, it is found that each increase in population dependency ratio will significantly reduce the ratio of current account balance to GDP. Separately, the influence of the change of the old age dependency ratio on the current account is not significant, while that of the children's dependency ratio is significantly negative, and the influence degree is about 2 times of the total dependency ratio. China's dependency burden will continue to increase for at least the next 15 years as the working-age population ratio falls after 2012 and the aging population ratio rises, and the current account balance will shift towards a smaller surplus and even a larger deficit. The government can improve the labor force participation rate and labor productivity, improve the trade structure, improve the efficiency of the financial system and increase the return on foreign investment.
【作者单位】：上海立信会计金融学院金融学院;
【分类号】：C924.2;F126.2

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